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Introduction

The International Relations Between the US, Developing Countries and Key Players China and EU Concerning the Paris Agreement on Climate Change

The consequences of the withdrawal of a key player like the US out of the Paris Agreement and the impact this will have on the international relations between the concerning nations.

Executive Summary

As the climate is changing at a fast pace this will have an impact on every one of us eventually, therefore the Paris Agreement was established with the intention of creating one force that works together to slow down the speed of this significant climate change happening in the world.

The Paris Agreement on climate change is voluntary, and therefore is a non-binding treaty that will depend on the cooperation of the countries to deliver the expected outcome. Only the Paris Pact itself is the only thing that would be binding.

The keystone of this agreement is the global objective of keeping global average temperatures from rising 2°C. It established a framework for getting momentum going on greenhouse gas reductions, together with some supervision and responsibility.

The US is the second biggest greenhouse gas emitter in the world after China, and is one of the key players in the Paris Agreement. But with the latest decision of the US to withdraw from this climate accord will have severe consequences on other nations and developing countries as well as the international coalition between nations. Even though the other key players of the climate accord, China and the EU, are willing to move forward without the US and with the admirations they still want to fulfil, are still going to feel huge influences of the withdrawal in one way or another, it will have a major impact. Developing countries will maybe even suffer the most from this decision as they are depended on the richer countries for financial aid which includes the US as well. The US itself will feel some effects as well, because there is divided thinking between the President and the states on their own, who are the actual winners and benefit from this withdrawal out of the agreement and who will be the losers and suffer most from it.

My research will include a face-to-face interview with a colleague of Mr. Stuyck, climate specialist and economist, who is specialized into the climate agreement and he also attended the Paris accord in 2015. Further information about the convention itself and climate change will be obtained through reading several books concerning the topic as well as reading articles in which I expect to find more information on the consequences, effects and impact of a key player leaving a climate convention.

This research is intended to show a clear overview on the several major effects of a key player in the climate accord leaving the Paris Agreement and what the impact will be on the concerning nations as well as on the developing countries.

Table of Contents

Introduction 1

Summary 2

Table of Contents 3

1. The Paris Agreement 4

1.1. Content 4

1.2. Mitigation provisions and carbon markets 4

1.3. Adaptation provisions 4

1.4. Enhanced transparency framework 4

1.5. Adoption 4

1.6. Implementation 4

1.7. Parties and signatories 4

2. Withdrawal of the US 5

3. China 5

3.1. Point of view as a key player 5

3.2. Outcomes 5

This part will discuss the effects the withdrawal from the US has had on the EU as a key player. Could be positive as well as negative. 5

4. The impact on the European Union 5

4.1. Point of view as a key player 5

4.2. Outcomes 5

This part will discuss the effects the withdrawal from the US has had on the EU as a key player. Could be positive as well as negative. 5

5. The impact on developing countries 5

5.1. Point of view as a developing country 5

5.2. Outcomes 5

This part will discuss the effects the withdrawal from the US has had on the developing countries. Could be positive as well as negative. 5

6. The impact on the United States 5

6.1. Trumps point of view 5

6.2. Point of view from the different States 5

6.3. Outcomes 6

This part will discuss the effects the withdrawal from the US has had on the US itself. Could be positive as well as negative outcomes 6

Conclusion 7

Literature List 8

1. The Paris Agreement

1.1. Content

Description of the aims, the nationally determined contributions, the effects on global temperature, global stocktake and the structure of the Paris Agreement.

1.2. Mitigation provisions and carbon markets

This chapter describes the links of trading systems and international transfer of mitigation outcomes as well as a description of the sustainable development mechanism.

1.3. Adaptation provisions

This chapter discusses the ensuring of the finance and the loss and damage part.

1.4. Enhanced transparency framework

This chapter examines the provision of “built-in flexibility” and makes a distinction between developed and developing countries capacities because the Paris Agreement has provisions for an enhanced framework for capacity building.

1.5. Adoption

This chapter describes how the adoption of the Paris Agreement took place. Four steps will be discussed in this process.

1.6. Implementation

This chapter describes how implementation is being done inside the climate agreement.

1.7. Parties and signatories

Description of the parties and signatories that have signed the Paris Agreement. As well as a description of how withdrawal from the agreement takes place.

2. Withdrawal of the US

In this chapter will be explained when they withdrew from the convention, which are things they do not have to do anymore, or are not binding anymore.

3. The Impact on China

3.1. Point of view as a key player

Description of an opinion from China as a key player in the Paris agreement.

3.2. Outcomes

This part will discuss the effects the withdrawal from the US has had on the EU as a key player. Could be positive as well as negative.

4. The impact on the European Union

4.1. Point of view as a key player

Description of an opinion from China as a key player in the Paris agreement.

4.2. Outcomes

This part will discuss the effects the withdrawal from the US has had on the EU as a key player. Could be positive as well as negative.

5. The impact on developing countries

5.1. Point of view as a developing country

Description of an opinion from the developing countries being part of the Paris Agreement.

5.2. Outcomes

This part will discuss the effects the withdrawal from the US has had on the developing countries. Could be positive as well as negative.

6. The impact on the United States

6.1. Trumps point of view

Description of an opinion from a former key player of the Paris Agreement. Mainly Trump’s opinion.

6.2. Point of view from the different States

Description of an opinion from the separate states of the US being formerly part of the Paris Agreement.

6.3. Outcomes

This part will discuss the effects the withdrawal from the US has had on the US itself. Could be positive as well as negative outcomes

Conclusion

Literature List

CHAO, Q. I. N. G. C. H. E. N. (2017, September). U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: Reasons, impacts, and China's response. Retrieved October 19, 2018, from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927817301028

This article would be very useful and relevant as the article discusses the driving forces behind the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, it also assesses the influences of this withdrawal on the compliance prospects of the accord and a proposal of response from China.

Schreurs, M. I. R. A. N. D. A. (2017, June 26). The European Union and the Paris Climate Agreement:  moving forward without the United States. Retrieved October 19, 2018, from https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10042857.2017.1343910?journalCode=tpre20

This could be relevant to the chapters of the key players (EU and China), as I’m also stating their point of view concerning the moving forward without the United States. In the article they say that the EU wants to make our planet great again, this is then also linked to Trump as he always states that he wants to make America great again.

Collinson, S. T. E. P. H. E. N., & Gaouette, N. I. C. O. L. E. (2017, June 1). Trump and Europe don't mix, and that will have lasting consequences. Retrieved October 19, 2018, from https://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/01/politics/trump-europe-alienation/index.html

This article would be relevant to specific chapter of the EU and also useful to the chapter of the impact on the US, as in the article Angela Merkel is stating that “the times when we could completely rely on others are, to an extent, over.”. And another link to the EU as well that is stated in this article is that the former assistant secretary of defence for international security affairs in Obama administration said “ a danger is that Europe won’t want to follow Trump if he needs them. Another statement that was made that could be included in the chapter of the US is the fact that Trump is giving the EU the incentive to not cooperate. There are a lot of other relevant factors that can be included in the chapter of the EU.

F. Parker, C. H. A. R. L. E. S., & Christer, K. A. R. L. S. S. O. N. (2018). Environmental Politics - The UN climate change negotiations and the role of the United States: Assessing American leadership from Copenhagen to Paris [E-book]. Retrieved October 19, 2018, from http://eds.a.ebscohost.com/eds/detail/detail?vid=0&sid=f36882ee-128c-4702-a137-b73c82b37b26%40sessionmgr4009&bdata=Jmxhbmc9bmwmc2l0ZT1lZHMtbGl2ZSZzY29wZT1zaXRl

In this E-book they examine the role of American leadership in the UN climate negotiations that produced the 2015 Paris Agreement, the outcome of the examination they did is that US leadership was crucial to the successful adoption of the Paris Agreement. So I can link the information of the E-book to several relevant  topics of my thesis.

A. Galston, W. I. L. L. I. A. M. (2017, November 20). Trump’s Paris Agreement withdrawal: What it means and what comes next. Retrieved October 19, 2018, from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/planetpolicy/2017/06/01/trumps-paris-agreement-withdrawal-what-it-means-and-what-comes-next/`

in this article they asses the outcomes when the withdrawal happened, positive ones as well as negative ones. They also explain what it means for America concerning the withdrawal. So this useful information to use with the chapters of the withdrawal as well as the outcomes included in the chapter where the impact on the US is discussed.

Bellora, C. E. C. I. L. I. A. (2018, January 28). US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: can states lead the fight to reduce carbon emissions? Retrieved October 23, 2018, from https://theconversation.com/us-withdrawal-from-the-paris-agreement-can-states-lead-the-fight-to-reduce-carbon-emissions-89882

This article talks about eventhough the US has withdrawn from the climate accord, if the states can still try to meet to guidelines to fight for climate change. This exactly is a part I’m going to cover in my chepter of the impact on the US. I would process it in the part where the point of view of the separate states is explained.

Congressional Research Service. (2017). Withdrawal from International Agreements. Unknown, Unknown: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform.

This book will give me some more insights on what it means to withdraw from international agreements like the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, so I would process this in the first two chapters as it is relevant to as well the Paris Agreement itself as the withdrawal of the US.

Deese, B. R. I. A. N. (2017). Paris Isn't Burning: Why the Climate Agreement Will Survive Trump. Retrieved October 19, 2018, from https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/fora96&div=88&id=&page=

It explains how the Climate Agreement could survive Trump, this would be a key element in the chapters of the impact on China as well as the chapter of the impact on the EU.

Klein, D. A. N. I. E. L., Higham, A. N. D. R. E. W., Bulmer, J. A. N. E., & Doelle, M. E. I. N. H. A. R. D. (2017). The Paris Agreement on Climate Change (Rev. ed.). Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press.

This book will explain me the convention on its own, in that way I can understand the possible effects more if a key player is withdrawing out of such agreement.

Liz Peek, L. I. Z. (2018, June 5). China's rising emissions prove Trump right on Paris Agreement. Retrieved October 23, 2018, from https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/390741-chinas-rising-emissions-prove-trump-right-on-paris-agreement

This article describes some positive outcomes for the US, in other words for Trump, because the emissions of China are rising. To include this into the relevant chapter I’m going to investigate why the emissions of China are rising, if it’s due to the impact of the withdrawal or not.

Martens, S. T. E. P. H. A. N. I. E. (2016-2017). Het klimaatakkoord van Parijs gewikt en gewogen. Retrieved from https://lib.ugent.be/fulltxt/RUG01/002/376/163/RUG01-002376163_2017_0001_AC.pdf

This report is mainly focussing on the question if the Paris Agreement on Climate Change is a useful step forward for the developing countries. So, this would be easy to process inside of the chapter of the developing countries.

McGrath, M. A. T. T. (2018, June 1). Paris pullout: The worst is yet to come. Retrieved October 23, 2018, from https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-44330709

This article explains the “to come” negative outcomes of the withdrawal of the US from the climate accord. So, this as well is very relevant to the chapter of the outcomes of the US as it would be for the withdrawal chapter.

Plumer, B. R. A. D., & Barclay, E. L. I. Z. A. (2017, June 1). What’s at stake in Trump’s decision on the Paris climate agreement. Retrieved November 1, 2018, from https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/4/18/15334258/trump-decision-paris-climate-deal

This article is useful as I can use and research the things that were at stake when he has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement. So, this would come to the section of outcomes in the chapter of impact on the US.

Roberts, D. A. V. I. D. (2017, May 31). How Trump policy will affect US carbon emissions, in one graph. Retrieved October 23, 2018, from https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/5/25/15689200/trump-policy-carbon-emissions-graph

This is another negative outcome from the withdrawal, so as said above it is relevant to the chapters stated in the previous resource.

Simon-Lewis, A. L. E. X. A. N. D. R. A. (2018, May 24). What is the Paris climate agreement and who has signed it? Retrieved October 19, 2018, from https://www.wired.co.uk/article/what-is-paris-agreement-on-climate-change

This is another article that could be relevant for the first chapter, the more information I get the more I can research about it and dig deeper into the topic of the climate agreement.

Barclay, E. L. I. Z. A. (2017a, June 3). 3 winners and 5 losers from Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris climate agreement. Retrieved November 1, 2018, from https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/6/2/15723988/winners-losers-trump-paris

This something I for sure want to include into my thesis, as this is mentioned in my executive summary as well and will be furthermore explained in the chapter of the impact on the US.

Barclay, E. L. I. Z. A. (2017b, June 5). Exiting Paris “probably our most consequential error since the Iraq War,” economist says. Retrieved November 1, 2018, from https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/6/5/15739792/exiting-paris-most-consequential-error-iraq-war-economist

This article explains another negative effect of the withdrawal out of the climate accord, as well as negative effect on the different states because they mostly think it was a very bad idea. So, this definitely relevant to those two topics.

F. Campbell, A. L. E. X. I. A. (2017a, June 7). Apple, Google, and California are rebuffing Trump and trying to stay in the Paris climate deal. Retrieved November 1, 2018, from https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/6/7/15745938/google-apple-climate-change-coalition

This is really interesting to include in the part underneath the impact of the US, and into the subtitle of the states, as they want to form coalition to still reach to goal the US agreed upon in the climate agreement or to come closer to it than would have been under the Trump policy.

Resnick, B. R. I. A. N. (2017, June 2). Trump wants a better deal than Paris on climate. What’s better than “nonbinding”? Retrieved November 9, 2018, from https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/6/1/15727024/trump-pulls-us-out-of-paris-climate-deal-non-binding

This could be included to the point of view of Trump so included in the chapter of the impact on the US but also included into the chapter of the impact on the EU. As it would be relevant to both items.

Ward, A. L. E. X. (2017b, June 1). Foreign leaders to Trump: there is no "better deal" than Paris. Retrieved November 9, 2018, from https://www.vox.com/world/2017/6/1/15726602/paris-agreement-trump-foreign-leaders-laugh

Again, like stated in the previous resource it could be managed it the chapters stated above but as well in the first chapter that talks about the Paris Agreement itself, as they are saying there isn’t a better deal than Paris.

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