Table Of Contents
2) Introduction to the three sectors
a) Occupational Sector
b) Investment Sector
c) Development Sector
d) Relationship among the sectors and how they interact with each other
3) Main factors that impact on the performance of retail property in the occupational sector
a) On-going MRT and infrastructure
b) The availability of good stock/investment opportunities
c) Rapid growth in e-commerce
d) The sentiment and confidence of the consumers
e) Purchasing power
f) Inflation rate
g) The government policies
4) An overview on the present performance of these three sectors in Malaysia
a) Overview on present performance
b) Occupational sector
c) Investment sector
d) Development sector
Q1. Explain the relationship among these sectors. How they are interacting with each others.
Commercial property also known as commercial real estate refers to a land or building
that is intended to generate profit. Examples of commercial property includes Office, Retail, Hotel and Leisure, Logistics and Industrial, Healthcare and Institutional. The main key players that participate in the commercial property are developers, fund or REIT managers and lenders. The performance of commercial property, including new building rates, occupancy rates and sales price is often used as measure for business activity in an economy or region. Commercial property can be categorised into three sectors, occupational, development and investment sectors. Within each sector demand and supply flows will determine the exchange price or interest. This report would explain the relationship among the three sectors, identify and discuss the main factors that affects the performance of retail property in the occupational sector and an overview on the present performance of these three sectors in Malaysia.
2) Introduction to the three sectors
a) Occupational Sector
Existing properties can basically be sub-divide into either owner occupied or investment property for let. The price of property in the letting sector is demand led. As occupiers require commercial property as a factor of production, the amount they need is determined by their scale of production, which in turn is driven by conditions in the economy. The one who involves in the occupational sector in the market is usually the tenants who rent an office space or units as a place for them to work and produce output. The country economy will directly reflect the occupational sector. For example, when the price of Crude Oil goes up, and the revenue of the oil companies will go up too, in the way to expand their business and hire more employees, they need a work space for them to work and helping to earn more profits. Amount of projected output such as land, labour and capital will affected the sales and revenue. Occupancy rate is therefore affected by the supply. Occupational sector has to move first, because it is a derived demand. The variable that indicates occupational sector is the rental due to when the demand goes up, the rental will be automatically goes up to.
b) Investment Sector
Real estate property is part of the investment that purchased a property aim for gaining a return on the investment, perhaps it can through rental income or resale of the property in the future. An investment of property it can be a long-term or intended short-term investment sector is an asset or project that gain income or value (Investopedia). In an economic view, if demand more than supply of occupational sector for commercial property. Developer will tend to develop more commercial property in order to supply into the market. Not only that, investor will started go in market place to purchase more commercial property in order to collect rental or use as own business as an investment. In addition, if financial provider interest rate goes high, investor will stop invest in commercial property market.
Other than that, government policy also part of the issue that will stop investor invest in commercial property such as Bank Negara set high interest rate and real property gain tax percentage is high. Financial provider provide interest rate and policy different between commercial property and residential property. Commercial property only can loan maximum 80% compared with residential property can go up to 90% of loan amount which means investor need deposited more capital into commercial property in order to purchased commercial property. The capital growth and rental yield are very important to investment sector which is also affected by the occupational sector. One of the reason affected by occupational sector is management problem, For example, if the management very poor such as did not well maintained, it will affected people whether to consider want to rent the commercial property or not to rent. If no people rent the shop lot or office it will affected the prices of the commercial property and the rental fees will decreased.
c) Development Sector
Development sector, which can also be referred as real estate or property development is basically a sectors that is in charge of developing the properties and selling it to investors or people who are interested in buying the building , or to put them on a re-lease or rent it out(NationalRealEstateInvestor,15,2,2016). Developers or builders are the one that are involved in this sector and usually do not build the land on their own but will purchase the land or building to get it developed and constructed by some builder by a fixed cost. Real Estate developer are responsible for the marketing of the properties and the lease and re-lease of the building.
For real estate developers, they will need to get the public approval for all the jobs and projects they doing. They will mostly be coordinated and working with city planners, engineers, contractors, architects and surveyors to make sure the prefect planning and execution of the property development project. Lots of popular names in business are always interested in developing a bigger societies with property well-furnished building for residing. Places like boulevards , retails shops and shopping malls are the commonly preferred commercial locations. Lastly , Offices for lease and renting are easily available in these locations. One of the example of the top developers in Malaysia is Eco World Development Group Berhad with a total of 17 development projects that is include the new townships, integrated commercial developments, green business park and also the luxury high-rise apartment. Eco World Development is by far some of the most well-known and respected in industry developers in the Malaysian property sector.(Wonderlist,April,25,2016)
d) Relationship among the sectors. How they interact with each others?
A commercial property market is categorised into three sectors, occupational, investment and development sectors. These three sectors represent the basic components of the overall property market. In the three sectors, the occupational sector would be the first to move, as it has a derived demand. Investment sector would next be affected after the occupational sector, followed by the development sector. In each sector there are many variables that indicate a sector, an example of this would be rent, rent is a variable that indicates the occupational sector.
The relationship between each sector simply means how each sector affects the other. For example when demand for property in the commercial market increases, what would happen to the relationship of the different sectors. As the occupational sector would be the first the move, it will be the first to be affected. When demand increases in a commercial property market, it will cause the rent in the occupational sector to increase. As rental increases, the supply of commercial property may increase, this would then affect the occupancy rate, causing it to increase. When occupancy rate increases, it means that businesses are doing well, which could also help benefit the economy of the country. The next sector to be affected is the investment sector, when there is an increase in rent, developers may be able to increase their income, allowing them to purchase assets or help boost their development in the development sector as the assets invested could also help decrease the cost of development for developers.
When there is an increase in demand and rent in a property market it may affect the investment demand in the investment sector. An increase in rent and demand would cause investment demand to increase. Investors would invest more in commercial property as there is a rising demand and rent price which may help investors to sell off their investment at a higher price. This could then allow investors to increase their profits. The final sector that would be affected in an increase in demand and rent would be the development sector. An increase in demand and rent would affect the building cost in a development sector, as this would allow developers to have a higher profit, they may be able to decrease the building cost as the developers may be able to purchase more advanced machineries which could help decrease the cost of building. With more advanced machineries, developers could also improve the efficiency of development in the development sector. This is only an example of how one variable and factor could affect all three sectors and how the sectors relate.
3) Identify and discuss the main factors that impact on the performance of retail property in the occupational sector.
a) On-going MRT and infrastructure
Based on the Sentiment Survey 2018, reported by Knight Frank, the result showed that most respondents find the on-going MRT and other infrastructure projects to be beneficial to the property market. MRT projects is expected to spur growth in Malaysia since we had already completed Sungai Buloh-Kajang which is the first line of KVMRT and the upcoming line 2, Sungai Buloh-Putrajaya-Serdang Line. The greater connectivity provided by the new line is expected to raise property values by an estimated RM300mil in gross development value. (ETP:Economy to be driven by large infrastructure projects- The Star Tuesday,19 March 2013, 12:00AM MYT)
The Director Henry Wiltshire, Vicky How mentioned that the MRT line will definitely have an effect upon property prices. The MRT line one can encourage an appreciation of property prices of anywhere between 20% and 40%, depending on the different types of developments and interestingly even a developerâ€™s track records. The properties integrated with MRT stations and shopping malls located closed by, can be sold at higher prices resulting in a higher return of investment (ROI) as compared to other properties within the Klang Valley. (Analysing MRTâ€™s Impact by Viknesh Ashley- The starproperty)
b) The availability of good stock/ investment opportunities
Knight Frank reported in the Sentiment Survey 2018 that the second favourable factor that impact on the performance of retail properties was due to the availability of good stock or investment opportunities.
c) Rapid growth in e-commerce
The result in the Sentiment Survey 2018 showed that the developers and fund or REIT managers both opined that the rapid growth in e-commerce will be beneficial to the property market. It was different perspectives from the Lenders, which are of the view that this phenomenon will have a limited impact towards the property market. They hold a neutral view on how the rapid growth in e-commerce will affect the retail properties. This is because the result will be mixed across all sectors. For example, the rise in e-commerce will be highly beneficial to the logistic or industrial sub-sector. However, this may be a detrimental towards the footfall of the retail properties.
Growth of e-commerce in Malaysia,the rapid growth of e-commerce globally has not escaped the Malaysian retail industry. This shift includes the expansion of the online shopping sphere, growth of online- to-offline retail, and the reshaping of Malaysiansâ€™ shopping behaviour. Malaysiaâ€™s e-commerce market recorded a penetration rate of 2.5% in 2017 and is expected to reach 4% to 5% in 2018, according to the second largest e-commerce player in Malaysia â€“ 11street. Additionally, iPay88 Malaysia, an online payment gateway, announced a 53% increase in online transactions in 2017, with a total of 58.5 million online transactions. Lazada broke its own record on Singlesâ€™ Day 2017 with over RM100 million worth of sales achieved. The promising Malaysia e-commerce market has attracted numerous foreign investments to the country, such as Alibabaâ€™s regional logistics hub in the Digital Free Trade Zone (DFTZ) Malaysia, which opened in late 2017. In addition, Alibaba launched its e-wallet services, Alipay, in Malaysia in March 2017, and Tencent has recently announced plans to launch WeChat Pay (Asian Cities Report, Kuala Lumpur Retail, Savills World Research, 1H 2018).
The retail market will be challenging due to the disruption of e-commerce industry. A good example will be the sales of Lazada.my. Statistics showed that Lazadaâ€™s Singleâ€™s Day 24-hour sales recorded of RM100 million, it is highlighted as the booming e-commerce industry on the retail industry, a few times more than the total sales revenue of a year in Suria KLCC, which is top performer for 2017. (Savills Malaysia:retail remains challenging in short to mid term)
So from here we can see that the booming of e-commerce will really affect the performance of retail properties due to people are tend to shop online but not going the retails shop and buy the things they want to buy.
d) The sentiment and confidence of the consumers
For the second quarter of 2018, it is reported by the Malaysiaâ€™s retail industry that there is a growth of 2.1 percent in the retail sales compared to the percentage in the same period of 2017. Nextly, the latest quarterly result did not meet the market expectations. The member of MRA have projected in the second quarter growth rate in June 2018 at about 6 percent. While the retail group have estimated for the same period is 6.3 percent ,thus the result was at least 65 percent below the marketâ€™s expectations. During June, the goods and services tax (GST) have been reduced from 6 percent to 0 percent. Then Hari Raya also celebrated at the same month. Not only that , school holidays, fatherâ€™s day and world cup took place in the same month too. All these event have increased the exceptional sales of many retailers .However , not much consumers have spent much on all the retails goods mainly due to they do not have any extra income. For the month of June, some retailers have enjoyed 30 percent increase in sales while others have only about 10 percent. Some business do not see much sales increasement while some even suffered from negative sales income. High value-added retail goods such as luxury items, electrical goods, furniture have enjoyed higher sales compared to business that sells basic necessities, general fashion and household goods. For the first 6 month of 2018, the retail sales rate have growth for 2.3 percent as compared to last year same period.
e) Purchasing power
Due to many advances of technology, many consumers have turned to online shopping, causing e-commerce to increase. When many people have chosen to shop online, the demand for retail property would decrease as many consumers are now purchasing their goods or services online. When there is a decrease in the demand for retail property this would impact the occupational sector, when demand for retail property have decreased, the rental price of retail property would decrease, This would then also affect the investment sector, as rental price is low, many investors may invest in retail property. Another factor that affects the purchasing power of consumers is government policy. When there is a decrease in government policies, for example, income tax, there would be more disposable income for consumers. When consumers have a higher disposable income they will be able to spend more. This could help increase the demand in retail properties more people are now able to purchase more. When there is an increase in the demand, the rent price for retail properties would also increase. This could cause the supply for retail properties to increase, as developers would want to meet the demand of the consumers.
f) Inflation rate
Retail property is an allocation of zoning for property that is used in a store. Retail property is also known as real estate. There are many factors that can affect the performance of a retail property in the occupational sector. One of the main factors that could affect the performance of retail property in the occupational sector is inflation rate. The occupational sector is the first to move as it has a derived demand. Inflation rate affects the performance of retail property in the occupational sector because, Based on the graph below, it shows that there is a deflation, as inflation rate is low, loans from banks would be cheaper, as loans are cheaper many would be able to afford to purchase property. Purchasing power therefore increases, this could increase the demand for retail property in the occupational sector, as more people are now able to afford the property. When demand increases, there would also be an increase in rent.
Malaysia Inflation Rate
Source from Tradingeconomics.com | Department of Statistics, Malaysia
g) The government policies
Another factor that have impacted the performance for retail property is the occupational sector for government policies. The government have counter the over supplying issue for the land for the developer in the land (An oversupply retail space in Malaysia, Tan Hai Hsin, April 5 2018). In 2017, more than hundred shopping mall in the IDP highway have cause over supplied problem that the new government policy is concerned due to the pass time the government will approved any land use in order to gain profit without thinking the consequence of oversupply. Not only that, a debt of RM 1 trillion has shock the property market and affect the confidence of the people form the occupational sector. The GST which have been zero rated have create quite a huge impact in the local retail property. The retail group Malaysia (RGM) revised their growth forecast from 5.3 to 4.7.The change in ruling party after the general election on May 9 is expected to boost consumersâ€™ confidence level and increase their willingness to spend. At the same time, the largest festival in Malaysia, Hari Raya, will be celebrated in June,â€ it says. Also, Malaysian Association for Shopping and High-Rise Complex Management past president Richard Chan says the current â€œtax holidayâ€ until the imposition of the sales and services tax (SST) in September â€“ is a much-needed boost for local retailers.
4) Q3. Write an overview on the present performance of these three sectors in Malaysia, with necessary supporting data and statistics.
All the parties involved in the commercial market such as Developers, Fund/REIT managers, Lenders and so on are all opined that the commercial property performed fairly in year of 2017. Only developers are not satisfied with the performance of the retail sub-sector in year 2017. Developersâ€™ dissatisfaction towards the retail sub-sector may be attributed to the oversupplied market and prevailing challenges which have collectively reduced the feasibility of retail developments over the past year. On the other hand, Fund / REIT Managersâ€™ positive view towards the healthcare sector may be justified by the sustainability and resilience of the sub-sector, which tend to consistently generate reasonable returns. This will be even more crucial in times where other sub-sectors, such as retail and office, are facing headwinds.
All respondents hold a pessimistic view towards the office and retail sub-sectors for year 2018. Developers and Fund / REIT Managers expect the performance of the hotel / leisure and logistics / industrial sub-sectors to remain flat in 2018. Lenders, however expect the performance of the hotel / leisure sub-sector to improve and are less optimistic on the logistics / industrial sub-sector. Fund / REIT Managers and Lenders expect similar performance in the healthcare / institutional sub-sector while Developers expect this sub-sector to perform better in 2018. Lendersâ€™ positive take on the hotel / leisure sub-sector may be attributed to the resilient tourism industry, which will have a direct correlation towards hotel occupancy level. Lenders, however remain cautious of the logistics / industrial sub-sector amid the immense hype surrounding it although the fundamental outlook for the sub-sector remains rosy. Developersâ€™ positive outlook on the healthcare / institutional sub-sector is attributed to dim prospects in the office and retail sub-sectors. Hence, this inadvertently enhances the prospects for the healthcare / institutional sub-sector.
Office Sector main markets located in Klang Valley. The slow recovery in commodity prices could trigger a reversal of office demand in the oil and gas sector, which has been a major driver of demand in Kuala Lumpur offices. As we all know, Malaysia, which offers competitive leasing, should continue to be one of the most sought after destinations in the region. However, it still attractive to the key players.
In the Klang Valley, office vacancy rate reported by NAPIC to be 23.6% as at 1Q 2017 and with incoming supply of 38 million square feet, vacancy rate could climb to 32% by 2021. In other words, a vacancy of 1 in 3 offices. The government has also voiced equal concern over the 140 new shopping complexes targeted for completion by
2021. They will increase existing supply in the Klang Valley, Penang and Iskandar Malaysia by 70%, 40% and 150% respectively, amidst vacancy rates of 13.4%, 30.6% and 24.2% as at 1Q 2017.
A freeze on office and retail developments has also been recommended by the government.
FURTHER MARKET TURBULENCE
The 2 sectors that appear to be less affected by an impending glut are the hotel/tourism and industrial sectors. However, this is not a signal for players to rush into these 2 sectors, thereby spreading a potential market epidemic to all property sectors.
With General Elections around the corner, none dare to predict whether a win by the incumbent government or an upset by the Opposition, will boost the market or cause a downward tailspin. What seems evident is that we can anticipate further market turbulence in 2018.
Source from NAPIC, CBRE | WTW Research
Source from NAPIC, CBRE | WTW Research
Property Market Indicators
Source from CBRE | WTW Research
This report will elaborate the performance in Occupational, Investment, Development Sectors in the main market such as Klang Valley, Penang and Johor Bahru.
A) Occupational Sector
KLANG VALLEY - OFFICE DEMAND FROM FOREIGN SOURCES
In 3Q 2017, Klang Valley recorded 6,022 transactions of shops/commercial lots worth RM10.55 billion, indicating a decline of 23% of total transactions compared to the previous year (3Q 2016: 6,365 transactions). Of the total, about 23% or 1,376 transactions were 2- to 3-storey shop- offices worth RM1.94 billion.
Kuala Lumpur is poised to continue attracting foreign investments and become a choice of location for multinational companies (MNCs), lending support to demand for office space.
With the new technologies advancing digital mobility and high adoption rates on technological application globally, the changes in the workplace/office space have come fast in recent years, including Global Business Services (GBS) and Tech Start-ups.
Demand drivers for GBS growth are mainly from banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), government, retail and hospitality/tourism industries. Demand for BFSI is expected from banks with the pressure to reduce operational cost, offer seamless customer service and replacing legacy systems. The government sector will drive the GBS growth due to increase in information technology application and adoption across government- based services, whilst GBS in telecommunication sector is in demand due to rise in demand for application service delivery, service provisioning, activation services and billing services.
Major GBS customers are from developed economies, such as the United States, United Kingdom, Japan and Asia Pacific countries. The local MNCs in Malaysia are also starting to turn to single sign-on (SSO) with major distributions in Cyberjaya, numerous MSC commercial zones, Technology Park Malaysia (TPM) and others.
Demand for another niche, that is, data centres within technology clusters are trending high in Malaysia, with its high utilisation rate of 70% is on par with other global data centre locations such as India, Australia etc. The data centre industry has been competitive with growing global demand in outsourcing their data centre activities in Asia Pacific countries at lower operational cost, where it recorded revenues of RM831 million, up 4.5% in 2015.
B) Investment Sector
Despite unfavourable market sentiment towards the retail sub-sector, all respondents intend to deploy more capital into the sub-sector as there are still opportunities present. For example, embarking on various asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) will improve the competitiveness of their retail assets. Surprisingly, the office market, which is also viewed unfavourably, is also expected to generate a lot of attention from Developers and Lenders, with the exception of Fund / REIT Managers, who plan to limit exposure in this sub-sector. As for the hotel / leisure sub-sector, Lenders plan to retain a similar exposure in 2018, whereas Developers are expected to deploy more capital into this sub-sector. However, Fund / REIT Managers will limit their exposure to this sub-sector in 2018. Logistics / industrial and healthcare / institutional sub-sectors will garner more attention from Fund / REIT Managers and Lenders while Developers remain on the sideline.
ISKANDAR MALAYSIA - INVESTMENTS DRIVING DEVELOPMENT
Johor recorded the highest domestic direct investment (DDI) approved in the manufacturing sector, amounting to RM15.22 billion, while foreign direct investment (FDI) approved was RM11.20 billion. Johor also recorded the highest investment in the manufacturing sector in 2016 (DDI and FDI), totaling RM26.41 billion or 45.15% of total investments in Malaysia.
The Investment trend in Johor for expansion of projects also remained healthy. The sources of investments in Iskandar Malaysia (IM) comprise a balance mix of foreign and local investors. Outside Iskandar Malaysia, the bulk of investments are in the Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Complex.
IM has recorded RM244.46 billion in total cumulative committed investments from 2006 until September 2017. 54% or RM103.55 billion have been realised. Local investors contributed 61% or RM149 billion of the total cumulative committed investments while the balance of RM95 billion (39%) came from foreign investors. More than 717,000 jobs have been created in various economic sectors, including logistics, creative, tourism and education, since the inception of IM.
With Johorâ€™s proximity to Singapore, it shall continue to benefit from FDI, tourists arrival and industrial activities originating from the island nation. More residential developments targeted at foreign buyers are expected to emerge in Johor.
Summary of Gross Domestic Product, 2012 - 2016
Sources from DOSM, CBRE | WTW Research
C) Development Sector
KLANG VALLEY STABLE TOURISM AND INDUSTRIAL
In 3Q 2017, Klang Valley recorded a total of 54,149 rooms by 187 hotels, an increase of 4% or 2,222 rooms y-o-y. In terms of new completions, a total of 1,614 rooms were recorded in first 3 quarters of 2017 through the opening of 7 hotels, examples are Stripes Hotel KL, Sunway Velocity, Sofitel Hotel Damansara and Element Kuala Lumpur.
Tourist arrivals rose by 4% from 25.72 million in 2015 to 26.75 million in 2016 and is expected to further improve in 2017 in conjunction with Visit ASEAN @ 50 Campaign and hosting of 29th SEA Games and ASEAN Para Games 2017. Meanwhile, the average room rate (ARR) for upscale hotels in Kuala Lumpur is notably lower in comparison to other Asian cities. All in all, these factors may potentially boost AOR considerably.
As at 3Q 2017, 44,277 existing industrial units were recorded in the Klang Valley of which 69% (or 30,569 units) are terraced industrial property, followed by semi- detached and detached units with a share of 14% (or 6,178 units) and 12% (or 5,490 units) respectively. Flatted factory (1,933 units) and industrial complex (107 units) made up the remaining 4% (or 2,040 units).
ISKANDAR MALAYSIA - COMMERCIAL SECTORS REMAINED ACTIVE
According to NAPIC, the existing stock of purpose-built office (PBO) was 96 buildings with the total space of 9,760,638 square feet as of 1H 2017. The supply of PBO remained on an uptrend with numerous completions in Iskandar Puteri.
The supply of retail malls has fluctuated from year to year between 2011 and 2015. Nevertheless, in recent years, construction remained active with the introductions of AEON Bandar Dato Onn, IKEA Tebrau and Paradigm Mall Johor Bahru in 2017.
These 3 malls injected to 2,402,812 square feet of floor areas to the total retail space of 16,644,329 square feet.
There were 1 new hotel which added 200 rooms to existing supply of 8,451 rooms in 2017. Another 1,509 rooms and 800 rooms are targeted for completion by 2018 and 2019 respectively. In 2020, there will be another 318 rooms entering the hotel market. By then, total rooms in IM will be approximately 11,078 rooms.
Local and foreign investors are venturing into IMâ€™s industrial property market. Most occupierâ€™s are now looking at green modern industrial parks with gated and guarded facilities and sizeable built-to-suit units.
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