In a study on the Korean economy from 1975 to 2001, The existence of a one-way causality relationship that is valid only for the short term and which is right to tourism without economic growth has been established (Oh, 2005).
In a study that examined the relationship between tourism and economic growth for the Taiwanese economy, GDP and the number of arriving tourists as data sets and the Granger causality test as a method of analysis, long-term mutual causality was found among the variables (Kim et al., 2006).
In the context of the Solow growth model, a study of panel data analysis of data from 1990-2007 to measure economic contribution to economic growth and development in island economies suggests that the tourism sector contributes significantly to economic growth in 19 island countries (Seetanah et al., 2011).
4. Research Method and Objectives
In this study, the data on tourism revenues between 2000 and 2015 were evaluated. This data was evaluated using SPSS 22. Software. A regression analysis was conducted to present the model proposal, which is the main objective of the research. Sample model was created after regression analysis.
Other factors have been identified in this study that may affect tourism revenues. These factors are foreign direct investments in the tourism sector, economic development rates, yearly reel effective exchange rate, and terrorist incidents. These data were obtained based on annual data and analyzes were performed on these data. Tourism revenues were determined as dependent variables, and other variables were accepted as independent variables. Graphs based on data sets and analyzes performed are included in the findings section. In addition, the model proposal is included in the findings of the study.
The most important objectives of this research are;
' To reveal the factors which have positive or negative effects on tourism revenues
' New findings for tourism sector development
' The tourism industry is to develop a new model to increase its income.
Through this research, it is aimed to increase the tourism incomes by developing an academic study on the tourism sector.
Interpretation is given in relation to the data obtained in this part of the study. In the process of disclosing the data, graphs have been drawn according to years. The contents of these graphs are related to the revenues from the tourism sector, terrorist incidents, real effective exchange rate, annual economic growth rates and investments in the tourism sector. Findings obtained in this context are discussed together with graphs. These data is between 200-2015 years.
The research has benefited from multiple regression analysis in the process of generating model proposals. Regression analysis is the method of analysis used to measure the relationship between two or more variables. If an analysis is performed using a single variable, this is called a univariate regression. If multiple variables are used, this is called multivariate regression analysis. To introduce a model that explains the relationship between a set of (predictive) variables that have an effect on the intended use of a multiple regression analysis and these (predictive) variables. It is also necessary to control undesirable effects by defining the desired effects by setting the ratings of the effects of a series of variables that have an effect on a variable, and setting the priorities in explaining that variation, and setting the relational equation that contains the optimal values of the effects of a set of variables that have an effect on a variable. (Statistical Analysis, 2017).
Tourism, being a continuously developing sector in Turkey, is extremely sensitive to terrorism and violence. The terrorist incidents that occur in the country braking the development of the sector, especially the actions towards tourism regions or direct tourists cause significant losses in the sector. Recently, the conflict of the solution process has begun with the end of the PKK terrorist organization and the Ishid terrorist organization has been targeting Turkey, posing a significant risk for the tourism sector. Findings obtained after this study demonstrate that terrorist incidents have a negative impact on tourism revenues. Living events should not be limited to terrorist acts alone. In addition, the coup attempt in 2016 and political tensions in the Middle East are among the possible negative effects on the tourism sector.
The increase and decrease in real effective foreign exchange rate enables clear comments on the value of Turkish Lira. When evaluated in this context, the decrease and increase in the value of real effective foreign exchange rate affect consumers' purchasing power. Thanks to this work, the increase in the real effective foreign exchange rate has a positive effect on the tourism sector and increases the revenues.
The change in the rate of economic development in this study does not have a positive effect on tourism revenues. This is an unfortunate consequence of a study conducted in Hawaii. In the study conducted by Ghali (1976), causality test was applied. Findings suggest that there is a significant relationship between economic growth and tourism incomes.
As a result of the analysis carried out in this study, it is found that there is a positive relation between the investments made in the tourism sector and tourism revenues. There are other studies parallel to the obtained result. In the study conducted by Martin et al. (2004), it seems that there is a positive relationship between the cost per tourist and tourism revenues. As a result of the study conducted by Y''ld''r''m and ''cal (2004), it is concluded that there is a positive relation between tourism investments and tourism revenues. These studies support this research.
7. Conclusion and Recommendations
The development seen in the tourism sector in the world has been felt in Turkey especially after 1980. The liberal policies applied after the period were the driving force of this process. It is seen that the tourism sector started to increase in its effectiveness in the Turkish Economy starting from 2001 in the conditions of our world. An increase in the final demand of the tourism sector leads to an increase in both the production of the sector and the production of other related sectors. When evaluated in this context, the tourism sector has a very important place in the development levels of the countries and in the process of opening new employment areas.
With the increase of the welfare levels of the countries in the world, the income and transportation opportunities for traveling have increased and this has caused a great competition among the countries that want to get the biggest share from the rapidly growing tourism market. In this environment, it is necessary to determine the strategies to increase the competitive power of the international tourism market in order to increase Turkey's tourism to the developing world tourism level and to increase the share of world tourism sector incomes. The tourism sector has an increasing emphasis on the prosperity of the people living in Turkey and on the development of Turkey.
Growing up in tourism, increasing employment, competitiveness and tourism revenues depends on certain conditions being fulfilled. Within these conditions, it can be considered to work in the areas of investment, incentive, infrastructure, environment, legal regulations, promotion, marketing, education, quality and improvement of relations with European Union in order to reach tourism targets.
A number of factors have been addressed in this study, in which the development and revenues of the tourism sector in Turkey are increased. These factors which are considered to increase the income of the tourism sector have been analyzed according to the data obtained between the years 2000-2015. With the emerging model, the factors that have a positive or negative effect on the tourism revenues were considered and proposals were made for the development of the sector. When the factors affecting tourism revenues are evaluated, terrorism incidents, real effective exchange rate, economic development rates and investments made in the tourism sector are considered in this study. Through the regression analysis based on these factors, various suggestions are presented by establishing the model. In the process of making these proposals, various sources and literature studies related to the subject have been discussed and discussed in this study.
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