“Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reason of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently and who move either within their country or abroad (IOM, 2007)”
The impact of ecological factors on migration captured a lot of attention over the recent decade. Environmental changes associated with natural phenomena, anthropogenic impacts and climate change encourages increased migration trends, modify their destinations and forms of migration relevant to environmental factors. Internal displacement is most often spoken of in the context of forced migration. In fact, the terms forced migration and human displacements have often been used interchangeably (IOM, 2005, P.9). We can analyze migration issues effectively by using Lee’s ‘puss-pull’ model. Lee’s model usually analyzes political, economic, demographic, environmental factors which are assumed to push people out of places of origin and lure them into destination places. To understand the migration processes in Central Asian region Lee’s model is effective. The five Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) that gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 are bound together by a shared history and culture, by geography and by formal and informal economic networks. These countries are rich in history, culture, and natural beauty. There are wide varieties of ecosystems in the region, from steppes and deserts to the steep Pamir and Tian Shan mountains, with long-lying waterways, seas, and large and deep freshwater lakes. It is a region also rich in natural resources, particularly oil, natural gas and minerals. The Central Asian region has also been characterized by substantial environmental and economic challenges, as well as by the continued heavy flow of vulnerable migrant groups (including displaced peoples) through the region. The major environmental issues in Central Asia resulting largely from human causes (deforestation, soil degradation, desertification, salinity, nuclear waste) have also led to certain commonly occurring natural disasters (droughts, avalanches, landslides, mudslides). Geologically, Central Asia comes under earthquake prone region which also lead to other natural disasters. Taking into consideration the fact that rural residents comprise a major part of the population of Tajikistan, it is likely that the problem of environmental migration is extremely active for Tajikistan, a mountainous terrain with annual avalanches, floods, melting of small glaciers and mudslides that cause extensive damage to the rural population. Migration processes in Kyrgyzstan have a strong environmental problems causing migration and displacement of large groups of people bring only negative, deteriorating impacts on the local regional communities. In Kyrgyzstan, landslides and radiation from uranium and chemical waste are two of the most dominating problems which forced people to migrate. Kazakhstan is affected by environmental hazards of different kinds, both human-made and natural. As a former site of the Soviet Union’s nuclear testing programs, Kazakhstan suffers from a number of human- made environmental disasters. Several areas have been exposed for a long time to high levels of nuclear radiation, and there is significant radioactive pollution. Semipalatinsk is one of them. The Semipalatinsk Nuclear Testing Polygon (SNTP) is the place where tests were performed between 1949 and 1989. These tests resulted in the formation of the atomic lake and with this radioactive gas emission into the atmosphere cause health problems among the local people. Besides nuclear programs, Kazakhstan inherited the disasters resulting from agricultural and industrial policies. One of these notorious sites is the Aral Sea. During the Soviet period, a substantial expansion in cotton cultivation led to the massive diversion of water from these rivers (Amu Darya and Syr Darya) for irrigation. As a result of the diversions and inefficient usage, less and less water was available to replenish the sea, which started shrinking rapidly. By the late 1990s, the sea had lost 90 percent of its volume. The desertification of sea causes health problems, water stress, unemployment, food scarcity and most important migration. Uzbekistan’s main environmental problems are centered on agriculture and water. Uzbekistan struggles with water supply and contamination problems throughout the country. Turkmenistan possesses large reserves of natural gas and substantial deposits of oil. The country is characterized by aridity, incorporating the Kara-Kum desert. Natural habitat transformation, soil erosion, salinity, biodiversity loss, uneven use of water, soil pollution, building of dams all contributed to environmental degradation in recent years. All five countries of Central Asia facing environmental problems and migration flow especially internally. Previous researches show that these displacements are heavily linked with environmental changes. Some of the hotspots like the Ferghana Valley region, the Aral Sea region, the Caspian Sea region etc. are impacted by internal displacements.
Major factors of environmental change and people’s compulsion of migration from risk- prone areas-
Central Asia is the best example of ecological and man-made disasters and its consequences like forced migration and people’s displacement in safer places. The geography of Central Asia is highly variable including steppes, high mountains, deserts, valleys, basins. Central Asia is one the vulnerable region because of the domination of temperate deserts and semi- deserts. Central Asia has arid and semi- arid climate with warm, cloudless, dry summer and moist winters in the south and cold winters with massive frosts in the north. The range of precipitation is still uncertain for Central Asia. There is decrease in precipitation rate in recent years especially in western and southwestern part of Central Asia. Most of Central Asian region is too dry for farming. High demand of water for irrigation, water pollution due to mining of uranium and industrial waste, frequent droughts, widespread desertification and land degradation threaten the environment of Central Asia as a result human development and security is in high risk. The most important sources of water are Aral Sea, Amu Darya, Syr Darya, Zeravshan, Lake Balkhash but they are slowly drying due to over exploitation of water and environment change.
Crisis of Aral Sea Basin
In the present scenario, the Aral Sea represents one of the world’s major human induced environmental problem areas. The Aral Sea is one of the largest inland water reservoir of the earth is in danger of disappearing or near to disappear. It dramatically decreased in size since the early 1960s. The forced cultivation of cotton during the Socialist era was the main cause of water diversion for irrigation. The problem became worst when water used for irrigation wasted due to lack of proper management and infrastructure. We can name it political economy of this largely anthropogenic disaster. At the era of Gorbachev, introduction of glasnost to raise the economy and production resulted overuse of pesticides and chemical fertilizers. The collapse of Soviet Union change the scenario of the Aral Sea Basin .The industrial sector largely privatized, new equipments and techniques used but there is limited incentive to invest in the cleaner technology. Absence of sewage systems, huge discharge of chemicals, population pressure and state withdrawal from investments in social infrastructure continued decline the quality of water. Wind erosion and increased occurrence of sand and salt storms especially in Karakalpakastan of western Uzbekistan and Kzyl Orda in south-west Kazakhstan. Here water and soil pollution, soil degradation, lowering of fertility of crops and most important is health issues creating o huge problem due to which local people are forced to migrate to other places. Fishing sector which provides employment to local people largely affected due to drying of Aral Sea. Contamination and huge presence of salinity imbalance the ecosystem of fresh water. In the absence of proper drainage system, residues of fertilizers and pesticides which used in cotton and rice production flushed back into the river. Due to poisonous chemicals, maximum fresh water fishes died or not in condition to eat. So the people dependent on fishing sector highly affected and today people are bound to be migrated from there to other places for employment. Central Asian states now facing a problem of scarcity of water and its distribution because maximum states are depended on agriculture so that they are in huge pressure. Water dependency vary among the five states, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan the main users and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan the main supplier. So this uneven distribution creates tension among them. There is competition between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in Ferghana Valley region. Clash between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan on Rogur dam on Vakhsh River. Other conflict between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan about the diversion of Amu Darya water into the Kara Kum desert. Because of crucial role of agriculture in the economic development of Central Asia which provide large amount of foreign exchange in one sense and in other sense of food security and employment, related to resource use will possible source of conflict and tension in upcoming future.
The Ferghana Valley
The Ferghana valley is one of the most densely inhabited areas of Central Asia. The Ferghana Valley is roughly oblong flatland, Syr Darya flowing in between this valley and surrounded by five mountain chains. This valley presents in between three states Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. This area is basically semi-arid region but due to good irrigation facilities, this zone help in production of cotton in good amount. This area also known for oil refineries and automobile industries. The Ferghana Valley is world’s second largest and heart of the Central Asian cotton industry. But in recent past to reduce the pressure of cotton production this valley is overexploited .this valley also the place of nuclear waste and land degradation. Apart from that, this valley comes under earthquake prone area and due to local environment change and climate change, the ecology of this valley is continuously become harsh and inhabitable. Landslides, mudflow, soil erosion, floods, industrial pollution, agricultural waste products are some of major issues which faced by local people and make life more critical.
The Aral Sea and The Farghana Valley are two relevant examples of environmental change which basically the result of anthropogenic and natural disasters and people displacement to other places from the risk prone areas. We can see the clear picture of environmental change and migration of the people if we discuss these five countries separately.
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is one of the largest countries in the world with diverse physical conditions. The dry Steppes cover large area of Kazakhstan with grasslands and sandy areas. Some of the important water sources are gifted by nature to this region like Lli River, the Aral Sea, Ishim River, Ural River, Syr Daria, Lake Zaysan, Lake Balkhash, Ural River and others. Kazakhstan before disintegration to till now is the backbone of Central Asia. Kazakhstan is the hub of mineral resources like uranium, zinc, lead, chromium, manganese, coal, iron, and gold and hydrocarbon industries. Kazakhstan environment change is the result of both anthropogenic exploitation and natural disturbances. Natural disasters like high temperature, floods, droughts, wind storms, epidemics, and earthquakes disturb the environment of Kazakhstan time to time. When Kazakhstan was under Soviet Union, maximum nuclear testing programs conducted .several areas have exposed to high level of nuclear radiation which leads to radioactive pollution for a long period of time. Semipalatinsk is one of them. The Semipalatinsk Nuclear Testing Polygon (SNTP), established in 1947 where several nuclear tests were performed over the period between 1949 and 1989 (Joldasov, A. 2007). These tests formed lots of atomic lake and through these lakes radioactive gas emissions spread into the air. The biggest problem faced by the local people because they suffered from various diseases like breathing problem, tissue related problem, cancer, eye infection and others. People are bound to leave their native places and resettled in other places which we called forced migration. To became a world superpower Soviet Union make this place worst to survive because the environment of this region is radiated due to explosion. With this, it affects the agriculture, natural landscapes, local ecosystems, water, and domestic animals. The Aral Sea crisis already discussed above. Other major issues which affect the environment are air pollution, decreasing level of underground water, dust storms, salinity etc. Air pollution in Kazakhstan is the fundamental result of industrial smokes, mineral extraction, inadequate industrial policies and management. Despite of economic hub, maximum population of Kazakhstan living in poverty especially in rural areas. In Kazakhstan , the cause of maximum internal displacement of people is due to adverse environmental conditions like in Kyzylorda province and in East- Kazakhstan where Semipalatinsk and the Aral Sea are located respectively(Bulesheva, A. 2007).
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan is a small landlocked country .70% of the country is covered with high mountains. In the northeastern part there is presence of Tian Shan mountain range and in the southwest Pamir- Altay mountain range. These mountains are young mountains so that time to time seismic activities faced by this region and there is always the fear of natural calamities. Here earthquakes, floods, avalanches, landslides, mud creeps, stone falls, melting of ice .people are always scary about of landslides because sometimes it fall on the houses and people lost their lives. In the harsh climatic conditions, people migrated to other places with their domestic animals. The situations of natural calamities are as follows: floods (30%), landslides (16%), tectonic activities (10%), and earthquakes (9%). (Nasritdinov, 2009). Because of melting of glaciers or over rainfall or snowfall in spring time creates floods like situation and people displaced from there to new protective area. During 2002 to 2007, about 88 people killed by landslides (MES 2008).landslides and floods also the result of uneven human activities. In recent years due to overgrazing of pastures near to mountain slopes invite to soil erosion. Kyrgyzstan is also the rich source of mineral resources. Immense extraction of uranium, mercury and heavy metals are some of the anthropogenic environmental disasters in Kyrgyzstan. About 95% of the territory of Kyrgyzstan located 1000 above the mean sea level, so that the polluted water or substances easily come through water stream and reaches to other regions. The extraction of uranium in Kyrgyzstan was the part of Soviet nuclear program and these mines provides raw materials to nuclear electric- stations. At that time, maximum Kyrgyz population lived near the uranium mines but after 1968 maximum mines were closed. Some important uranium mines are Kara- Balta, Mailuu- Suu etc. The uranium wastes were remained so that the radio- nuclides which are very unsafe and toxic spreaded over the local environment of that area and make the environment inheritable to survive. The local people migrated from there because of health problems like cancer. Internal migration peaked in the period of 1994 and 1998. The main direction of flow of migration from south to north near the surrounding areas of Bishkek. The main regions are lack of lands due to mountains and overpopulation, unemployment rates, low living standards etc. one remarkable thing is that most of mountainous population depends on animal husbandry which is the main source of earning for their survival. After disintegration, for their needs people over exploit the posture lands for getting maximum wool and meat. This results the environmental change in the form of landslides, floods and other disasters.
Tajikistan
Tajikistan is a mountainous country and considered as the main glacial area of Central Asia. Glaciers and snowfields of Tian Shan ranges are the good source of fresh water for the Aral Sea. Major water sources in Tajikistan are Syr Darya, Zeravshan and Pyanj River. Here exhaustion of natural resources and frequent natural disasters led by rapid population growth. Soil degradation is the main cause of migration because of limited educational level in between the people of rural areas about the sustainable use of land for various purposes. At the time of Soviet Union, people generally settled near the foothills of mountains. But the excessive cotton demands at that time government forced people to leave the foothill areas, in particular to achieve land development in Vakhsh valley and convert agricultural grounds for cotton cultivation (Mahmadbekov, M. 2009).In Tajikistan, tillage cultivation of cotton was in full pace near the foothills led to degradation of environment and salinization due to large amount of irrigation. Salinization is a major problem in arid lands due to extensive irrigation.irrigation in newly developed areas of foothills leads to rising of ground water which takes out mineral salts from bottom to upper surface and harm the production of crops. Cutting of forests for agriculture leads to erosion of soil, deforestation and more danger of landslides. At the time of disintegration of Soviet Union, due to political disturbances, civil wars, economic reforms people felt unsafe and they migrated from urban to rural areas and leads to heavy pressure in rural areas. Due to excessive demands of food, uncontrolled and mismanaged agricultural activities had done in the mountainous terrain and significantly disturbed the environment. Here also at that time due to more need of food animal husbandry was also in peak, excessive pasturing of livestock in mountainous ecosystems causes degradation of land, mudflows due to erosional processes. In recent past due to local environment change and influence of climate change, high temperature, changed pattern of precipitation and excessive melting of ice has also lead to frequent floods. More than 90% of the country is vulnerable to environmental degradation so migration of people especially internal migration is in great pace in recent years. A nuclear waste disposal site in Kyrgyzstan is one of the important anthropogenic disasters which contributed more in changing the local environment. The Khatlon province of southern Tajikistan is poverty-stricken area. An internal state migration plan to develop the region by resettlement of disaster victims from mountainous areas to safer place .the geographic topography and dreadful environmental conditions like sandstorms , degraded lands, intense heat and most important its historical role in civil war have also made insecure to survive. Labour migration as an adaptation strategy and an alternate option for the people of Tajikistan due to more environmentally unfriendly areas.
Approximately half of the total land area of Central Asia is prone to desertification. About 75% of total land area of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan has undergone severe degradation over last 25 years, largely due to the drying of Aral Sea. If salinization persists, most of river basin agricultural land will become unsuitable for production of crops and rivers are no longer serving as a freshwater source for drinking and other use so that local people migrated from there. Uzbekistan is facing problem in the field of agriculture and water. Due to lack of proper drainage system, contamination problems throughout the country. Turkmenistan has large reserves of natural gas and oil so over extraction directly harm the environment .apart this, the country is characterized by aridity due to presence of Kara-Kum desert. One relevant point about Uzbekistan’s water sources like river and lakes found to be extremely polluted with the presence of heavy metals, oil, mercury, radioactive particles, pesticides, chemical fertilizers and local wastes so here dominance of water borne diseases like malaria.
Data’s showing environmental induced forced migration and internal displacement in Central Asia
‘ In 1996, about 100,000 people were displaced by the environmental crisis in the Aral Sea region(Yupahur, Small, Meer. 2001)
‘ During drought period between 1999 and 2001, about 273,000 people migrated to Kazakhstan and to the Russian Federation in search of better economic opportunities(Glantz 2005)
‘ A study conducted by Medecins Sans Frontieres in Karakalpakstan found that 48.8% of residents wanted to migrate due to worst environmental condition and poor government support(Asian Development Bank, 2009)
‘ 66,000 people displaced in Tajikistan as a cause of natural disasters in between 1991 to 2001,according to database report of CRED( Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters)(OSCE, 2005)
‘ A study done by IOM, estimated that about half of the total migrant population has moved internally in Central Asia(IOM, 2005)
‘ The UN High Commissioner For Refugees(UNHCR) estimates that about 250,000 people have been forced to leave their native places because of environmental disasters(ADB, 2012)
‘ About 161,000 persons were forced to leave the Semipalatatinsk area, one of the important nuclear testing site at the time of Soviet Union and in Kyrgyzstan, at least 17,000 people had migrated between 1992 and 1997 because of mudflows, earthquakes and landslides(Sulaimanova, 2004)
‘ According to the survey conducted by International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF), 16% listed ecological reasons as the main driving force for the displacement of persons in Central Asia. Main reasons include desertification, floods, landslides(Sulaimanova, 2004)
Socio-economic impact
Environment change directly or indirectly impact on food, water, ecosystem, health, industry, mining, settlement, society, agriculture and local weather. This leads to poverty, unemployment, low income, conflict and others. Some of the major aspects of human vulnerability in Central Asia since the collapse of Soviet Union like water stress, human health, and food security.
Aridity is the primary cause limiting the portion of land available for agriculture and livestock production in Central Asia. Most croplands in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan are irrigated and agriculture is potentially highly vulnerable to climate change because of degradation of limited arable land. Climate and local environment change can affect food production in several ways. Temperature and precipitation change highly affect on production. Some extreme events like frost, uneven rainfall, intense heat, droughts are responsible for disproportionately large part of climate related damages.
With rapidly shrinking Aral Sea, transgression of Caspian Sea, an immense cotton industry, huge deserts advancing desertification. Growing demand of water for irrigation, high levels of water pollution, frequent droughts and widespread land degradation are among the key water related issues for the region that threaten human development and security. The Aral Sea states Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are impacted by local climate change cause by the reduction of water volume in the Aral Sea region and resulting toxic salted dust storms. The desiccation of large body of water has changed the local climate has impacted the hydrometeorology of entire Aral Sea basin. The salt content of southern Aral Sea is much more. The quality of water for human consumption is poor in many parts of Central Asia. Due to excessive irrigation and mismanagement of water, groundwater table is also affected. High levels of salt and other minerals are found here. Very high level of water stress in many parts of Central Asia, temperature increases and precipitation decreases in western part of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan faces water shortage. Since 2000 a series of droughts has affected Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan etc. Agriculture, animal husbandry, water resources, public health have been particularly stressed across the region as a result of recent drought. Changes in the climate and hydrological process in the mountain of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan indicate a steady increase of precipitation during past decades (Meleshko, 2004), but also a decrease of glacial volume and area. By 2030-2050 the temperature in mountains of south-eastern Uzbekistan will increase by 1.5 -2.5 degree Celsius, causing higher runoff of Amu Darya, Zeravshan and Syr Darya due to accelerated melting of mountain glaciers and precipitation (Miagkov,2006). Glacial melt in Pamir and Tien shah ranges is projected to increase flow of water in rivers for a few decades, followed by severe reduction of flow as glacier disapper ( Glantz, 2005). Seasonality of glacial flows has already occurred as a result of warming (Braithwaite, 2002). Rapid melting of glaciers and particularly the Zerafshan glacier has increased in the frequency of glacial lake outburst that can cause devastating mudflow and avalanches in mountain region of Central Asian states.
Environmental change directly or indirectly impact on human health. Change in the regional climate and climate variability might cause either increase or decrease the risk of same infectious diseases (particularly water borne infections). Increase of temperature and climate variability cause such as droughts, dust storm and floods which affect public health. Rapid economic decline in 1990’s, combine with political instability in many parts of region ( especially Tajikistan ) brought back epidemic typhus, tuberculosis, diphtheria meningitis and other infectious diseases to the Central Asian states. Malaria is also seen in Central Asia. Land use is very important modifier of regional and local climate. Open irrigation canals, pit latrines, sewage- polluted ditches, discarded rubber tires etc invite diseases.