Richard Bernstein and Ross Munro argue that it is inevitable for China to become Asian hegemony by analysing national interest from historical perspective. And the military rise of China will be a threat to Asian hierarchical structure or power balance. The coastal regions around PRC such as South China Sea have been accompanied with huge disputes between China and Japan. And the territorial expansion has been a huge threat to neighbouring countries such as the Philippines. Over the span of 2015, China utilized land-reclamation methods to extend a large portion of the elements that occupies in the South China Sea, a large portion of which were then militarised. This improvement close by numerous other critical indications of assertiveness, including China’s extensive scale maritime modernisation; its extending arrangement of oceanic paramilitary strengths to constrain other Asian states including Japan, in the East China Sea without any military shape to take the disputed Senkaku Islands from Japan which is well armed; its endeavours to undermine the solidarity of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations; and its endeavoured production of an option territorial security structural engineering – not just demonstrated Beijing’s expectation to strengthen its sea claims, additionally highlighted China’s drive to make another provincial request in which it plays a predominant and mediating part. Such a request could undermine the hobbies of other provincial states and the West. By late October 2015, an initial “freedom of navigation” patrol by the US Navy that took one of its boats inside the 12-nautical-mile territorial waters claimed by PRC around one of the territories that it possesses in the South China Sea, demonstrated that Washington perceived the need of more grounded countermeasures. In any case, this harder methodology should be both industrious and bolstered by US associates and security accomplices in the district to succeed.
The U.S. Defense Department criticised that China’s national defense budget is increasing without transparency that the true defense budget could be as much as double the official figure. According to World Military Balance 2015 for 2014 by International Institute for Strategic Studies, China spends $129.4 billion a year on Security, which is 1.2% of GDP in 2014. While the U.S. spent $581 billion that constitutes 3.0% of GDP. However, what we could see is China’s military is more transparent and open than before. The Ministry of National Defence has been organizing Beijing-based foreign journalists from different countries to visit the military base from which they see the huge changes of Chinese army in recent years, as well as the gap between other developed countries.
In the short term, Chinese authorities must consider the potential for unsteadiness or war on the neighboring Korean Peninsula in the occasion North Korea were to strike back against these new measures. What’s more, over the long term, Beijing should be prone to worry about the impacts of this expanded collaboration all alone military position in the area.
The rise of China poses a global threat in politics
The following discussion will focus on the global threat of China poses in politics from the perspectives of global institutions and power. As a socialist country with only one party, China’s political influence has been playing a particular role in special influence to the world. With factors such as the demographic weight, territorial size, membership in almost all important global institutions such as WTO, Beijing’s seat is almost guaranteed in any global regime. On the other hand, no global institutions would claim the legitimation without considering the membership and participation of the world’s largest country. The veto power in the UN Security Council provided the country the most valuable source of its great power status in global politics that no major military, social or environmental conflict should be coordinated multilaterally without its consent. As O’Neill argued, China is the most powerful member of the UNSC, as it holds its veto power from an extreme political position. Hence China faces no immediate danger that its veto power will be weaken through the expansion of UN Security Council. And most recently, China’s political reform has been a hot topic around the world.
The power-transition theorists expect to start a desire to maximize power compared with rivals, cooperation is still the objectives of nation states even under the situation of anarchy. However, it is worthwhile to define the notion of power in the globalizing world before assess a nation’s’ status in the international system. The content of power has altered significantly with the collapse of Soviet Union in varying forms, and the traditional military concept weighs too much to a nation’s aggregate power and too little to the interdependent power. As David Baldwin argued, the concept of an international power structure that is not related to particular issue area is based on a notion of power that is nearly meaningless. It is also important to bear in mind that the assessment of China’s role in world politics should be based on the comparison to western interests or American interests. China has been integrated into a larger level of cooperation within global institutions than before with a great increase in Beijing’s participation in UN-sponsored multilateral treaties. As China steadily promotes the economic freedom level with emerging middle class, the drive for greater political freedoms increase as well. It is possible the country to form a global with the source of international political power and international interdependence within the western-dominated international system in the past century and the economic reforms in the past 30 years.
Despite the U.S. responded that many countries hope China to follow the route of peaceful rising and no country would sacrifice its own future for nothing; the U.S. market has strong relations with China’s development, and China should not take the openness of the U.S. market to China for granted; China should become responsible stakeholder of international system. The U.S. response indicated that it didn’t accept China’s argument and that the rise of China is a threat to the U.S, which is largely based on neo-liberalism that indicated it is inevitable to generate conflicts between sovereign nations for the name of power pursuing. New emerging nations would challenge hegemony for the international status which matches to its economic power. Thus the rise of China is a threat to the U.S no matter it is peaceful rise or not.
With discussion above, with the fact that China is rising, it is fair to say that the rise of China does not pose a global threat in economy, while we should not deny the possibility that the threat that rising China poses to the global in security and politics. The China threat theory maintains that its rising has the tendency to destabilize security in the future with its exceptional economic growth which could potentially turn the large population from the weak condition to strength thus make the country a superpower on the basis of the improvement of upper class military and technological capacity. The discussion of the global and regional influence of China’s rise provides a way of understanding of the dynamics of current world order. However, how should China be rising with which type of policy are not clear enough yet. As a strong power, it is more important of how to rise than the outcome of rise. And the speed, ideology and influence to international power balance will cause doubt, alert and unpleasant reaction from other countries. Furthermore, the threat perception of the rising China also depends on values, historical alliances and context. As China develops and keeps rising with the changing world order, the influence of China would also alter and adjust with the international trends.
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