All of today’s industries are currently experiencing many changes. Each is prompted by improvements in emerging markets, sustainability policies, changing consumer preferences around ownership and most importantly the advancements in technology. Digitization, increasing automation and new business models have reformed various industries and the automotive industry is no exception. These factors are bringing about technology driven trends in the automotive sector: diverse mobility, autonomous driving, electrification and connectivity. Over the generations automobiles have influenced every aspect of society in many ways and have changed to keep up with the times. Huge changes have occurred to automobiles from Henry Ford developing and manufacturing the first automobile that many middle class American’s could afford in the early 1900’s to the now vast range of automobiles available with various functions. The “2030 automotive revolution” is to bring about many technological changes which will have a huge impact on the automotive industry as well as society.
The biggest change that has already began to occur in the automotive industry as a result of advancements in technology that I find particularly significant is that of autonomy. The development of autonomous vehicles which require no human intervention are the car of the future. They will completely redefine the use of individual mobility platforms. The rapid progress made in areas such as artificial intelligence, machine learning and deep neutral networks make it possible to achieve what until recently seemed impossible. (PriceWaterhouseCooper, 2017) Manufacturers are already working together and in the process of developing self-driving cars but recently, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) have been developed to play a crucial role in preparing everyone for reality of cars taking over control from drivers. Active parking assist and advanced cruise control have in the recent years been brought to consumers. “Cruise control takes control of the throttle and flow of air and fuel into the engine. A vacuum driven mechanism pulls the throttle cable to control the flow.” (Kirkland, 2017) Many modern cars also feature other autonomous systems like Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB). “AEB systems use radar, cameras and lidar technology to assess the road ahead and work out potential collisions. These systems generally inform the driver that action is needed to avoid a future collision, and then if no action is taken, AEB will brake on behalf of the driver.” (Kirkland, 2017) On the current market, the BMW 7 Series is able to park itself without the owner’s intervention. The growing prominence of cruise control systems, and self-parking systems in the BMW 7 Series indicate that fully autonomous systems will be the next phase in the auto-tech revolution. Autonomous technology is still in the developing stages today, but the foundations have been set for an autonomous revolution in the future. Autonomous cars promise huge benefits to communities and society in general. Autonomous cars will ensure greater safety. We understand that new technologies, like Shared cars, autonomous cars and electric cars (SAEVs,) can be unsettling and that people wonder if traveling in SAEVs will be safe but Many crashes and fatalities today occur because of human behaviour so autonomous vehicles can greatly reduce the risk of crashes. Road fatalities are likely to fall dramatically so introducing autonomy will clearly save lives. This will have an impact on car repair shops as there will be a smaller amount of vehicles that will have to be repaired and serviced. Autonomous vehicles are likely to be more fuel efficient than human driven vehicles because of smoother driving. They will also significantly reduce the need for nearby parking spaces as vehicles can take themselves to parking spaces outside of congested areas. This frees up a lot of square metres of land for other public uses, such as parks, houses, commercial uses or recreational facilities. Smoother traffic flows will help reduce congestion. By reducing congestion, autonomous vehicles can make journey times more predictable. People will have more time in their day to spend instead of sitting in heavy traffic. Autonomous cars will also be life changing for the growing number of elderly people and for handicapped citizens, vastly expanding mobility for people who cannot drive themselves, have difficulty using public transit, and cannot afford other forms of private transportation. (The Boston consulting group, 2017)
Another significant technological change that has occurred in the recent past is the electrification of cars. There are a small portion of electric cars in the industry at the moment but “55% of all new car sales in Europe may be fully electrified by 2030.” (PriceWaterhouseCooper, 2017) This transition to emissions- free mobility for cars in the future would greatly help to protect our environment. People are starting to realize that Global Warming is a very real issue that needs to be dealt with quickly. Pollution is one of the main causes of global warming and it is a major environmental problem caused mostly by automobiles. The burning of fuels in cars creates toxic emissions which are very harmful to the environment. “This idea of going emissions free is that the electricity used to charge the vehicles will come from renewable sources to ensure co2 neutral mobility”. (PriceWaterhouseCooper, 2017) These electrified cars will be lifesaving as they will make cities healthier. The move from gas-powered to battery electric vehicles will dramatically reduce emissions: millions of fewer tons of CO2 will enter the atmosphere. Electric cars will be very sought after in the future due to stricter emission regulations, lower battery costs, more widely available charging infrastructure and increasing consumer acceptance. Electric cars will be easier to drive, quieter on the road, require less maintenance and cost less to run than their petrol or diesel counterparts. They will have huge impacts on the automotive industry as there will be no need for petrol stations as charging infrastructure will be built and easily available.
Ride sharing is also another technological advancement that has had a huge impact on the automotive industry. For several years, many cities have offered car-sharing facilities. ‘While these are currently often run as pilot projects or citizen initiatives, sharing concepts will become economically viable with the introduction of autonomous vehicles. It will no longer be necessary to search for a shared vehicle in the surrounding area: instead it will be possible to order vehicles to wherever the user happens to be via a convenient “on demand” service.’ (PriceWaterhouseCooper, 2017) This idea is similar to taxi services such as Uber and my taxi where you can order a taxi to your door with the click of a button on an app on your smartphone. This is a more affordable way of travelling by car as the car will no longer have to be bought outright and tax and insurance expenses wouldn’t exist so your journeys can instead be paid for in small amounts per use. As ride sharing increases and fewer cars fill the streets, congestion would also reduce. Shared Autonomous based transportation will likely be considerably cheaper than car ownership is today as people would not have to be the sole owner of a car and could just pay per each journey. Another element is the economic effect of ride sharing: splitting the fare among multiple passengers. Ride sharing in taxi that carries at least four people would be roughly half as expensive as driving one’s own vehicle. This will have a huge impact on car companies as less people will be buying cars as they will engage in ride sharing opportunities. It will also have a huge impact on insurance companies as less people will be taking out insurance.
Another huge technological change is the idea of connectedness in the cars. It is the networking of cars with the outside world. “This term actually represents two concepts at once. On the one hand, it applies to Car2Car and Car2X communication, which is the networking of the car with other cars or with the transport infrastructure (such as traffic lights). On the other hand, the term also covers the networking of vehicle occupants with the outside world. In future, they will be able to communicate, work, surf the internet or access multi-media services during the journey.” (PriceWaterhouseCooper, 2017) Since the introduction of the smartphone, customers are quick to adopt highly complex and expensive technology once it makes their lives easier. Users value convenience and ease and so by 2020, one in five cars will be connected to the Internet. “Apps for connected cars will enable users to manage their car remotely, so to check gas levels, lock the door, check driving performance, receive theft notifications, and control other elements such as starting up the engine or putting the alarm on,” (Martindale, 2016) This idea of connectedness will be of huge advantage to drivers as t will make their life a lot easier with regard to protecting and maintaining their car.
A merging of all these technologies of autonomous vehicles, electric cars, ride sharing and connectedness are progressing rapidly and multiple pilots are developing. Consumers are ready for a different way of transportation that will improve safety, access, and reliability. It is estimate that by 2030, a substantial share of people will turn to these enhanced automobiles with these technological advancements cutting transportation costs by nearly 50% and reclaiming time instead of losing hours a day to traffic. This huge change will have an enormous impact on health, safety, and quality of life. Traffic accidents and fatalities will be reduced greatly as well as the Pollution from the emissions of cars. Cities can also repurpose millions of square feet once used for parking to new green spaces or commercial uses.
Right now, there is perhaps something otherworldly about the image of millions of driverless vehicles maneuvering through our towns and cities, pulling up outside of homes and offices to pick up riders, navigating traffic, compensating for weather-related and other issues, and delivering passengers who might not have glanced outside once during their trip, instead focusing on conversations or work or just resting. (The Boston consulting group, 2017) Planes, trains and automobiles were all otherworldly and all seemed impossible but they were sparked by imagination and technological possibility so these ride sharing, autonomous, electric and connectedness cars will soon become a realisation and a part of everyday normal life. These cars will have huge impacts upon the automotive industry in the future. Manufacturers are already experimenting with shared access models and investing in car clubs and peer-to-peer players. Car companies will have to work together and reinvent themselves to ensure they attain similar sales figures as today. Insurance companies are offering short term cover for peer-to-peer car rentals; this will become the norm as we transition from ownership to car sharing. Car garages will also be majorly affected as there will be less servicing of vehicles required and petrol shops will become extinct as all cars will become electric. Also “Driven by shared mobility, connectivity services, and feature upgrades, new business models could expand automotive revenue pools by ~30 percent, adding up to ~USD 1.5 trillion.” (Mckinsey&Company, 2016). It is clear from the many advancements in technology that there will be huge impacts to the automotive industry as well as to society in general as automobiles are forever changing to keep up to with the times.