Climate variability is universally accepted as the most complex and a major challenging environmental problem facing human kind today globally (UNEP, 2014). Increased evidence in frequency of extreme climatological events is now more certain than ever (Hartmann et al., 2013; Adhikari et al., 2015). The expected climate variability impacts manifest in the form of long droughts, floods, storms, and high atmospheric temperatures (Naanyu, 2013). From the past historical records global temperatures have been rising since the late 19th century and the last three decades are reported to be successively warmer than all previous decades. The 21st century in particular, is predicted to be the warmest of them all (IPCC, 2014).
Averagely, global temperatures have increased by 0.72°C since 1950 (Hartmann et al., 2013). According to studies carried out by Collins et al. (2013) and Kirtman et al. (2013), IPCC speculates an increase in temperature between 0.3°C and 0.7°C in the coming two decades and its projected to increase to a range above tolerance (Afeyo et al., 2015). Increase in temperature is additionally coupled with changes in hydrological cycle components, for instance rise in vapor, fluctuation in rainfall, changes in extreme events such as prolonged droughts, decrease in snow cover and melting of ice, and changes in soil moisture content and runoff (Hartmann et al., 2013). Rainfall has greatly increased from 1900 to the 1950 between 30°N and 85°N latitude and has also increased between 10°N to 30°N, but has dropped after 1970 to present (AdhikariQ1223 et al., 2015).
On the other hand, climate variability is increasingly perceived as one of the greatest challenges for food security and yet food is a very vital human right (WFP, 2009).Inadequate food consumption has serious implications for general body health and well-being, growth, development and cognitive ability among children, and labour productivity (Kirimi et al., 2013). Globally, 842 million people are food insecure and this figure adds to one eight people in the world. 30 out of the 44 countries of the 842 million food insecure population is in Africa and the number in SSA was projected to rise to 300million people in 2010 where one in four people suffer chronic hunger (FAO, IFAD and WFP 2014).
Like many SSA nations, Kenya has encountered a number of food deficit incidences. About a third of Kenya‘s population is considered to be food insecure (USAID, 2013).Currently, it is estimated that 10 million Kenyans are food insecure and between two and four million people require emergency food with3.2 million Persons living in marginal areas, 850,000 school going kids, 150,000 displaced persons and 2.2 million people living with HIV/AIDS (Wambua et al., 2014; Owino et al., 2014). A relatively recent report lists Kenya among the 15 countries most at risk of food insecurity according to World Food Program Food Security Index (Ng’ang’a, 2015). Furthermore, results from a paper published by Wakibi et al. (2015) shows that 67 % of the Kenyan households are food secure, 30 percent are food insecure, meaning that they lack access to enough food to sustain an active, healthy life for all members of their households.
Climate variability effects are global and local, and will affect agricultural food systems all round. Studies carried out by Oxfam (2013), shows that the changing climate is already jeopardizing gains in the fight against food insecurity and its set to escalate. It threatens the production and distribution of food. It endangers food accessibility by destabilizing food prices and it harms people health by affecting their nutrition and diets as well as the quality and quantity of food produced. Owing to the intensity and frequency in which the extreme events such as droughts, floods, storms and climate-related plant diseases, among many other factors, continually occurs (Phiiri et al., 2016), food security continues to remain a far-fetched dream for many people particularly in the Sub-Saharan Africa where agriculture is highly dependent on climate(Adane et al., 2015).
Changes in rainfall activity and shifting temperature zones will have detrimental effects on food production (Mburu et al., 2015). These impacts can either increase or decrease crop production (Porter et al., 2014) and they can be separated into temporal and spatial trends at regional scales (Nam et al., 2015). In high latitudes, warm temperatures lengthens the growing seasons as well as increases the potential agricultural land (Mueller et al., 2015). The latest report of IPCC (2014) indicates that, some areas have witnessed increased precipitation from 1900 to 2005 for example United States of America, northern parts of Europe and northern and central Asia regions, others have recorded a decrease such as the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and southern Asia. Africa will be hit worst especially poor and vulnerable people in rural areas (Boru and Koske, 2014)due to high dependence on natural resource base and other stresses and this situation could worsen when a 4 °C warmer climate is reached (World Bank, 2012; Connolly-Boutin and Smit, 2015).
Climate Variability impacts are projected to decrease the general yields of cereal crop through shortening of growing seasons, magnify water stress and amplify occurrence of pests, diseases and weed outbreak (Niang et al., 2014), such assessments concentrate on the likely effects of anticipated changes in average rainfall and temperature on crop yields (World Bank, 2009). Studies carried out by Bita and Gerats (2013) shows that heat stress during flowering and grain filling stages end up decreasing grain count and weight, leading to low crop yield of low quality. Additional work by Teixeira et al. (2013) explains further that, even short length heat shock will scale back crop yield substantially, particularly if it coincides with the reproductive stage.
General production in many African countries by the year 2050 will fall by 10–20 percent owing to climate variability notably in Sub-Saharan Africa countries, (Omoyo et al., 2015).Net crop revenues could fall by 90% by the year 2100 (Boko et al., 2007). Extreme rainfall varies with high intensity, few occurrences, and poor spatial and temporal distribution have a direct impact on soil productivity hence low yields (Naanyu, 2013). Rainfall failure as well could mean loss of major livelihood source that always accentuate food shortage (Icheria, 2015).
Due to the aforementioned, there is need to promote synergy between climate adaptation and mitigation to improve food security (Icheria, 2015) as well to attempt and improve resilience to future and uncertain climate impacts on food production. This will enable the vulnerable to mitigate and cope with climate change effects generated by the interaction of food security and climate variability. It is against this background this study focuses on examining selected climate variables (Rainfall and temperature) and their effects on food security in the Oloolua area of Kajiado County.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
Ensuring food security amidst climate variability is at the top of the agenda in all developing nations and Kenya is no exception. Climate is expected to warm across all seasons during this century in the country (Naanyu, 2013). Variability will lead to increased variation in weather patterns primarily between seasons and years. This evidence is backed up by data of over 50 years from Kenya Meteorological Department that shows the effects of variability in Kenya (GoK, 2010). Long-term changes in the patterns of the temperatures and precipitations are expected to shift production seasons, pests and diseases patterns, increase water stress and modify the set of crops affecting production (Amwata, 2013).
Increased climatic uncertainty means food production will become less predictable and this will have adverse effects upon food security (FAO, 2010). According to Nga’ng’a (2015) extreme weather events including higher temperatures and more variable precipitation are already having significant consequences on food production in the country. As well increased temperature and change in precipitation that come as a result of climate variability are anticipated to further stress marginal areas that are currently under agriculture (Bobadoye et al., 2014).
Household food insecurity in Kenya’s arid and semi-arid regions comprise of 88% of Kenya’s total land area and are dominated with rain fed agriculture (Icheria et al., 2015).Currently, it is estimated that 10 million Kenyans are food insecure and between two and four million people require emergency food (Wakibi et al., 2015). This number includes 3.2 million persons in ASAL parts of Kenya (Wambua, 2014) and Kajiado County falls within Kenya’s arid and semi-arid region. However, the contribution of climate variability to food insecurity in this area is not yet fully understood. Thus, the study on the effects of climate variability on food security in Oloolua area, Kajiado County was deemed necessary.
1.3 Research Questions
The study sought to answer the following questions;
1. How has climate (temperature and rainfall) varied in Oloolua area of Kajiado County between 1980-2015?
2. How has climate variability affected food grain production (maize and beans) in Oloolua area of Kajiado County?
3. How is the state of food security among households of Oloolua area of Kajiado County?
4. How effective are climate variability coping strategies by households of Oloolua area, Kajiado County?
1.4 Objectives of the Study
1.3.1 General Objective
The general objective of the study was to determine the effects of climate variability on food security in Oloolua area, Kajiado County.
1.3.2 Specific Objectives
1. To examine climate variability trend in Oloolua area of Kajiado County between 1980-2015.
2. To determine the effect of climate variability on food production (maize and beans) in Oloolua area, Kajiado County.
3. To establish the state of food security among households of Oloolua area, Kajiado County.
4. To evaluate effective climate coping strategies by households in Oloolua area, Kajiado County.
1.5 Hypotheses
1. Climate variability has significant effects on food production in Oloolua area of Kajiado County.
2. Oloolua area of Kajiado County is not experiencing climate variability.
1.6 Significance of the Study
Climate variability introduces additional uncertainty to already constrained state of food security in Kajiado County. It manifests in change in seasonal characteristics for instance prolonged dry seasons, delayed rains and alternating dry and wet conditions. It’s evident that climate variability and food security are inter-linked in Kajiado particularly due to increased change in seasonality. However, many climate studies in this area have focused more on Pastoralism, droughts, climate mitigation and adaptation but less has been done on food grain production. Studies close to this one have been done in other countries like Ethiopia, Zambia and Zimbabwe (Adane et al., 2015; Sianungu, 2015; Manyeruke et al., 2013) and even in different parts of Kenya (Mwaniki, 2014; Nga’ang’a, 2015) but due to geographical characteristics (agro-ecological zones), economic and social status their recommendations may not be applicable to Oloolua area. This study therefore sought to fill this gap.
Further, the study may increase an understanding of climate variability on food security from Oloolua area’s point of view. This is essential to devising mitigation and adaptation practices that have positive outcome in this particular area. The study may also inform the households of Oloolua area on effectiveness of the already adopted strategies, inform the stakeholders of the climate trend and food security status in the area.
The study as well may be of significance to policy makers such as the Ministry of Agriculture, livestock and Fisheries, Ministry of Environment and Mineral resources, NGOs, local organizations and development agencies among other stakeholders working in the area by providing information that may aid formulation of policies that could bring change in agriculture and climate systems to enhance food security, contribute to the existing literature on the topic and finally provide recommendations for further studies.
1.7 Conceptual Framework
The study aimed at examining climate variability trend, determining effects of climate variability of food production, establishing household food security status and evaluating effectiveness of coping strategies in the study area. The independent variable for the study was climate variability (rainfall and temperature). Food grain production and environmental change were dependent variables while natural forces, anthropogenic drivers, mitigation and adaptation strategies were intervening variables.
Climate variability has far reaching effects on food grain production and thus food security. Food production will be affected by shortening of growing seasons, shift in planting seasons, increased crop pests and diseases, loss of soil fertility and decreasing moisture content. This can lead to seasonal crop failure and long-term production problem resulting to low yields hence food insecurity. Climate variability as well can affect food access in a way that, as agricultural produce decreases, food prices shoot and the purchasing power reduces. Natural and human (anthropogenic) drivers will accelerate climate variability (Rainfall and temperature) by changing weather patterns making production more unpredictable.
Environmental change in this case involves the extreme weather events such as droughts and floods. More frequent and more intense extreme weather events (droughts and floods) and increasing irregularities in seasonal rainfall patterns are already having immediate impacts on food production and thus food insecurity. Erratic and unpredictable rainfall will lead to changes in rainfall thus floods, high temperatures coupled with low rainfall can lead to droughts. Both natural and human drivers will accelerate the extreme events thus reducing food production. Appropriate climate adaptation and mitigation strategies will minimize the effects of natural and human drivers hence stabilizing the effect of climate variability on the environment and increase food production hence food security.