Ghost Invaders: The Impact of Hybrid Warfare
The presence of foreign military forces throughout a nation is an uneasy prospect for many civilians and patriots to bear, even in the cases of the foreign military forces being that of a friendly country, such as a close ally. The presence of a foreign military in your country without your government’s consent is an appalling ideal to hold, with the prospect being that of invasion and annexation by these occupying forces.
Consider this scenario; A country in which you were formerly conquered by, with even a genocide occurring on your people via them, places military forces strategically throughout your lands during a time of political turmoil, and begins to carve your home into two. When called out on this act they claim that it is indeed not them and their soldiers, but in fact local militias and self-defense groups posted by the native people in order to safeguard a single side of the conflict (ARIS).
This is the most likely prospect on what has occurred throughout Ukraine in the last few years since their Revolution against a corrupt political action led to civil war throughout the country, with mass organized groups of “Little green men,” and other euphoric nicknames, or official names such as “Self Defense Groups” or “Militias” given to these so claimed “Polite, armed men,” that appeared in key strategic locations throughout the majority of ethnic Russian regions of the country (Shevchenko).
Before the Russian Federation existed there was the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union, all three of these nations have never had such luxuries as countries like the United States or United Kingdom has had, a stark sea body preventing direction invasion or action against the Soviet Union (ARIS). Due to the nonexistence of any sort of natural barriers to protect Russia, the Russian strategic ideal was always a very simple one in its nature; Place forth a barrier of allies and puppet-nations that a country has to invade to get to the Motherland itself. As proven by the Soviet Union, Russia has in the past been very hesitant with allowing these buffer states to distance themselves from Russia, with multiple invasions including Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Hungary in 1956 (ARIS).
Around the years of 1990 and 1991, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia declared themselves independent from the Soviet Union, declaring the latters control over their nations illegal. In response to alleged discrimination and actions against Ethnic Russians and pro-Russian populations, the Soviet Union responded with a hybrid force. Operatives set to support protests and riots against the countries governments on hot issues, but related to the leaving of the Soviet Union. Following such, the Soviets sent military forces into the country “to provide Law and Order”, by their own terms at least. Following this, the Soviet forces seized key locations such as military and government bases within the country, eventually leading to direct conflict against civilian population. When pressure built against the Soviet Union for these actions, the government denied it all, declaring that these were the ethnic Russians of the nation, a statement we see today when looking at Russia’s involvement in Ukraine (ARIS).
Along with this claim to protect the ethnic Russian population, or other ideologies against that they label as fascism, the Russians have long since developed a multitude of tactics that they direct forwards in order to push forward the Russian Federation’s influence without direct military conflict and outcries from the Western World and other neighboring countries (ARIS). With developments from frontal assaults to media manipulation, these ideals of Hybrid Warfare slowly start to show themselves, combining all of these historic examples into one to lead to a surprising amount of evidence for what occurred in Ukraine.
Around the same time as the conflict in Lithuania, Moldovan forces and Transnistrian militias broke into conflict. In response, the Russians sent volunteer Cossacks to aid the Transnistrian forces, eventually defeating the Moldovan forces and establishing Transnistria as one of the most disputed territories today, being formally a disputed autonomous region of Moldova, like that of Catalonia but with some form of recognizable nation status (ARIS). Another example is Chechnya, who ousted the Russian government in 1991 and declared independence in 1993. Following the leaving of Russian businesses and experts, the Russian forces began to support insurgent groups, joining them on raids against the Chechen government before finally invading them in 1994, failing and signing a cease fire with Chechnya after declaration of a Jihad from Islamists in Chechnya and surrounding regions due to the invasion; However, due to Islamist motivations and greed, this was not the end of the Russian involvement in the caucus region (ARIS).
Following invasions by Islamists from Chechnya, the Russian forces invaded yet again, and with superior organization and equipment overcame the Chechens, returning and claiming themselves a liberators of the Region. Doing similar military actions in Georgia in 2008, utilizing control of the media and denial to downplay or deny any interactions in the regions, later painting the Georgians as invaders and criminals attempting to begin a new Genocide (ARIS).
The Russian shifts from direct confrontation to hybrid warfare, via media manipulation and covert operations is highly visible throughout history, with connections to modern day events, such as the Ukrainian issues, becoming more and more apparent through research. General Valery Gerasimov of the Russian Military set forth a theory of warfare in the modern era, declaring it widely different from that of the Cold War and Second World War, with a lovely model. The Gerasimov model depicts six stages of conflict, being that of the following; “Covert Origins, Escalations, Start of Conflict activities, Crisis, Resolutions, and Restorations of the Peace.” With this model, we will discuss Ukraine (ARIS).
Viktor Yanukovych became Ukrainian President in 2010, his party gaining pull throughout the country as a Ethnic Russian and Pro-Russia party, eventually merging with another and placing Ukraine in its state of being between the East and West, aligning itself with Russia, the EU, and NATO. Following increasing divide between President Yanukovych and oppositional parties within Ukraine, President Yanukovych claimed willingness to join the European Union, quickly changing his decision and signing deals to closer relations with Russia, leading to protests and demonstrations in Kiev. After police wounded an opposition leader, protests and riots began to increase by hundreds of thousands, demanding the resignation of the Ukrainian Presidency and attempting to block the ratification of any deal with Russia, with the Police Forces being given permission to use firearms and force against protestors, along with other laws against them being passed (ARIS).
These protestors, with their desire for freedom and hard growing tenacity, stood throughout for weeks within protest camps, in the harsh weather and climate of Eastern Europe to hold fast in their statement (Gumuchian). With Riot gear, such as shields and batons, along with gas and stun grenades being used upon the growing crowds of protestors, opposition leaders claimed that the injuries numbered in the hundreds from the initial attempts to cease the protests (Balmforth). With the Special Police teams, the Berkut, using excessive force such as this, the Ukrainian President and his government could not withstand the protests, growing by the hundreds and thousands (Kurkov).
After deals and negotiations broke down, the President and his deputies fled to Russia before being impeached by the Ukrainian Parliament, with arrested opposition leaders being released from Prison (ARIS). After appeals from ethnic Russians in Crimea to Moscow, Pro-Russian protests began to lead to unidentified soldiers appearing throughout Crimea and Pro-Russian parts of Ukraine, well equipped and armed (Bukkvoll). These so-called “Self defense militias” began to seize key locations such as air bases, government buildings, naval bases, and other military installations, blocking off Ukrainian military forces, who were under the order not to engage to prevent further incidents (BBC).
On March 18th of 2014, Russia formally annexed Crimea into the Russian Federation, leading to later violence spreading throughout other regions of Ukraine such as Donetsk and Luhansk, with the former trying to declare similar referendum to Crimea. Finally, in April the Ukrainian Government began to fight back, with offensives being very hesitant or the Russian-backed rebels being too organized, but with some successes (ARIS). But after a failed cease-fire, Russian tanks crossed the border illegally with the intention to supply and reinforce these separatist groups and the Little Green Men (Al Jazeera).
Following the increase of Russian forces in and around Ukraine, several of the captured rebels and members of the “Defense Militias” claimed to be that of Russian origin, with several Russian VDV, or Paratroopers, being arrested and more claiming to be Spetsnaz, or Special Forces, soldiers being detained. Despite Russian denial of military forces being involved in the Ukraine, Russia freely traded detained and arrested Ukrainian personnel for these alleged Russian soldiers, despite claiming that they are not Russian forces whatsoever (Trevelyan).
Along with this, experts and analysts located within the region are cited as claiming and overviewing the deployment of Spetsnaz Forces within Ukraine leading up to the days of the revolution, as if they were prepared to begin the rebel incursions and annexations. Along with these claims come statements and beliefs that Russian intelligence agents had been there months in advance, slowly attempting to plant the seed of discontent and distrust in order to aid them in the development of resistance forces and militias within Ukraine’s Ethnic Russian or Russian speaking regions (Bukkvoll).
According to regional expert and researcher Tor Bukkvoll, “One of the first eyewitness accounts was provided by the Ukrainian war correspondent Inna Zolotukhina.” Bukkvoll stated witness accounts from Miss Zolotukhina, “She also contended ‘a highly placed representative of the local power structures [in Sloviansk] told me that about 150 instructors from GRU had been in place in the city for almost a month.’ (Bukkvoll).”
After the events pertaining around the Revolution into the Crisis and Conflict, the public opinion throughout Ukraine sharply rose and fell varying from Pro-national and Pro-Russian civilian populations and locations, with regions holding larger concentrations or numbers of ethnic Russians breaking more-so to side with the Government-in-Exile, and in support of Vladimir Putin and the annexation of Crimea; Meanwhile, areas closer to the West siding with the new Ukrainian Government, and thus aid and membership with and regarding the EU.
In an interview reported by the BBC, a Mister Varlamov stated that
“They are creating an image of a Russian liberator-soldier wearing a nice new uniform and armed with beautiful weapons, who has come to defend peaceful towns and villages.” (Shevchenko)
Others in support of the new Ukraine Government, such as those who took place in the Independence Square Protests are angered, varying from sadness and woe in the face of war and appalled at reports from Russia, calling the protests a fascist coup d’etat (Spiegel).
While these fears and worries run rampant throughout the Pro-Western parts of Ukraine and its new Government, Russia and the Pro-Moscow Ukrainians don’t appear to be all too worried, calling the Ukrainian Government illegitimate, with a visit by Vladimir Putin to Crimea even occurring. Despite Government forces attempting to retake territories lost in the crisis, NATO experts seem to acknowledge a clear loss of any clear chances by the new Ukrainian Government, stating Crimea and other regions to be lost causes (Standish).
Though, the annexation of Crimea is still in harsh debate, with a important question being that of if the use of Russian troops to secure and annex Crimea is a justified, legal action- With the argument being used to support them being that of support and security for the ethnic Russians in the region; However, this argument is eerily similar to that of the justifications used by Adolf Hitler in the Sudetenland (Criscuolo).
Even with these debates and harsh realities being listed, the Ukrainian revolutionaries tenacity has stayed with them since the beginning, with the Associated Press giving a statement by one of the Pro-Russian Presidents opposition leaders,
“I am convinced that after these events, dictatorship will never survive in our country,” world boxing champion and top opposition leader Vitali Klitschko told reporters. “People will not tolerate when they are beaten, when their mouths are shut, when their principles and values are ignored.” (Heintz)
Ultimately, the sharp contrast throughout history of the methods used by Russia to subjugate and attempt to gain hegemony over the Region is an interesting development to observe, with changes slowly occurring throughout years of trial and error by the Soviet Union and Russian Federation. The most important aspect; However, is the alarming signs that were missed and not viewed by historians prior to the events of the Ukrainian crisis, with similar steps and issues occurring as they did in regions such as Chechnya and Moldova (ARIS).
While signs and historical precedent to validate and solidify the occurrences of the Ukrainian Protests, Revolution, and Crisis should have been highly visible in the military history of the later years of the Soviet Union and the early Russian Federation, the most troubling issue is the status and difficulties of foreign forces acting, with denial of their movements being bombarded in the international community.
These soldiers and their presence makes a clear impact on both the political happenings of Ukraine and the surrounding Political Sphere, being that of countries within range of Russia’s influence or military. With their presence and encouragement to remain pro-Russian in origin influencing heavily on the local populations and militias, bolstering support for Russia and their Government by their presence, acting as ‘kind liberators’ instead of foreign forces.
Along with this negative influence on the sovereignty of Ukraine by the Little Green Men and their visual presence in Ukraine and Crimea, the global issues sprouted in the region by the denial of their origins by Russia impacted the rest of the world heavily, with economic sanctions and military maneuvers occurring, including the deployment of NATO force, including that of US forces as well, into near-by NATO ally Poland.
With this visual show of force, a mysterious army appearing within key locations in a neighboring country, the entire world was affected. Ultimately, leading into tensions and bloodshed across the former Soviet Union, that of which had not been seen since the days of the Second World War and the Cold War (Spiegel).
With actions taken that had formed as a conglomeration of military tactics that had been developed and seen throughout the incursions in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Georgia, and Moldova such as the denial of military action, insurgency tactics of paramilitary and incursion based forces, claims of defense of the ethnic Russian populations to station troops into key regions, and the use and manipulation of the media in order to develop the situations in the regions to act like that of the Russians side, or to delay international sanctions or outcries for a period of time whilst they work on the development of the situation in their favor, such as they did with the annexation of Crimea, rebel forces in Donetsk, or even the support and development of a force located within Transnistria (ARIS).
Works Cited
Shevchenko, Vitaly. “‘Little Green Men’ or ‘Russian Invaders’?” BBC News, BBC, 11 Mar. 2014, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26532154.
Staff, SPIEGEL. “Beyond Ukraine: Russia’s Imperial Mess – SPIEGEL ONLINE – International.” SPIEGEL ONLINE, SPIEGEL ONLINE, 10 Mar. 2014, www.spiegel.de/international/europe/ukraine-invasion-reveals-flaws-in-politics-of-putin-and-russia-a-957815.html.
United States Army Special Operations Command, www.jhuapl.edu/ourwork/nsa/papers/ARIS_LittleGreenMen.pdf.
Standish, Reid. “Putin Visits Crimea After Ukraine Warns of ‘Full-Scale Russian Invasion’.” Foreign Policy, Foreign Policy, 19 Aug. 2016, foreignpolicy.com/2016/08/19/putin-visits-crimea-as-ukraine-warns-of-full-scale-russian-invasion-kiev-caucasus-2016/.
Bukkvoll, Tor. Russian Special Operations Forces in Crimea and Donbas. ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/parameters/issues/summer_2016/5_bukkvoll.pdf.editmore horizontal
Criscuolo, Ronald. “Ukraine and Jus Ad Bellum: Past Application and Future Trajectory.” Future Foreign Policy, 8 Dec. 2014, www.futureforeignpolicy.com/ukraine-and-jus-ad-bellum-past-application-and-future-trajectory/.
Trevelyan, Mark. “Russia and Ukraine Hand Back Prisoners: Russian News Agencies.” Khmer Times, 30 Aug. 2014, www.khmertimeskh.com/news/4091/russia-and-ukraine-hand-back-prisoners—russian-news-agencies/.
Karmanau, Jim Heintz and Yuras. “Protesters Topple Lenin Statue in Kyiv Rally Urging Ukraine Turn to EU, Not Russia.” CTVNews, 8 Dec. 2013, www.ctvnews.ca/world/protesters-topple-lenin-statue-in-kyiv-rally-urging-ukraine-turn-to-eu-not-russia-1.1579948.
Balmforth, Richard, and Thomas Grove. “Ukraine Riot Police Break up pro-Europe Protests.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 30 Nov. 2013, www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-protest/ukraine-riot-police-break-up-pro-europe-protests-idINDEE9AT02B20131130.
Kurkov, Andrey. “Ukraine’s Revolution: Making Sense of a Year of Chaos.” BBC News, BBC, 21 Nov. 2014, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30131108.
Gumuchian, Marie-Louise. “East vs West — What’s behind Ukraine’s Political Crisis?” CNN, Cable News Network, 18 Feb. 2014, www.cnn.com/2014/01/28/world/europe/ukraine-protests-explainer/index.html.
Jazeera, Al. “NATO: Russia Supplying Ukraine Rebels Tanks.” News | Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 29 Aug. 2014, www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/08/nato-russia-supplying-ukraine-rebels-tanks-2014829134612258605.html.