In March of 2014, Crimea was hastily annexed back into Russia and Putin delivered a nationalistic speech to Russian Federation and Federal Council to rally their continued support and provide them with Russian’s rational for proceeding with such an aggressive act. Fortunately, for all involved there was minimal military involvement and little bloodshed was lost in the process. What was uncertain however, would be the full response from the West in the form of economic sanctions and the next steps that Russia might take militarily. For the world outside of Russia, the question to ponder would be whether the annexation of Crimea was a one off event based on the confluence of a number of accommodating factors or was it the first step of a Putin’s (and therefore Russian) strategy to extend Russia’s presence and power in the world. Whatever the future would hold, Putin would need to maintain the support of the Russian public, which it is clear he secured with this passionate speech.
Background
There are a number of important and somewhat complex political and historical facts and event leading up to March of 2014. The main considerations have been summarized below:
Since the Crimea speech involves the annexation of Crimea, a part of Ukraine, it makes sense to start with discussing the historical and unique aspects of Ukraine itself. Like other republics under the former USSR, this country had it beginning at the collapse of the communist controlled USSR in 1991. It was at this pivotal time Ukraine became its own country, earning with it the free right to pursue its own government and grow its economy. A feat they have found easier said than done as the country has struggled to find it way. Nonetheless, this was a momentous period for citizens who lived under the iron and cruel hand of communist leaders such as Stalin for a long period of time.
Geographically, Ukraine is a fairly large country (the size of Texas) and is situated between Russia and Europe. Ukraine’s population is very diverse (name specifics), its democracy has been less than perfect with some sections (West) aligning itself with Russia and other sections (East) aligning itself with Europe. This alignment is related strongly to the cultural segments living in each area, Ukrainians in the west and Russians in the east. From 1991 to 2014, Ukraine vacillated between pro Russia and pro-Western presidents, often corrupt. As a consequence, the political circumstances have been very unstable. Its economy has been very weak, which eventually became the driving factor toward the Ukraine crisis (discussed below).
In terms of Russian self-interest, Ukraine geographically represented a rather large territorial buffer to any military threats coming from the West. It was also the home of Russian navy (Black Sea Fleet) located in the city of Sevastopol- Crimea. Crimea itself also provided crucial transportation points for oil and it was speculated that Crimea had large deposit of oil. Certainly, Russia cared considerably the value represented here remained well within their sphere of influence.
Next in importance, is Vladimir Putin, the former KGB colonel and current President of Russia, and the country of Russia, who themselves became an independent country after the collapse of the USSR. Like Ukraine, Russia struggled economically post 1991, but benefited to some degree from the single and leader ship of Putin. Putin has always been dedicated to bringing back prosperity and pride to Russia and his governmental strategy in the early years was centered on economic growth. With the economy faltering however, during the election years in 2008, Putin took a shift in his political strategy where it centered on Russian nationalism and anti-West position. Putin tapped into a growing circle of Russian nationalist who were motivated to bring Russia back to a level of international presence it enjoyed when it was under the USSR. Putin understood clearly that in order to stay in power as president, he needed to maintain the support of the Russian people.
Several additional aspects of Russia and Russian history are important and are essential to consider in the understanding the actions of Putin during this time. First, Russian’s long history of being attacked from the West (primarily by land) this occurred throughout history and were especially damaging in WWII with Germany where over 50 million lives were lost in the battle. Related to this, was Putin’s growing distrust and annoyance with influence of NATO and its continued expansion east. Both of these factors clearly influenced Putin’s perspective with respect to what he felt was necessary to protect Russia’s interest at home. It is not surprising that Russia’s military spending equaled 69.2 Billion dollars in 2016 about 5% of GNP.
Lastly, but arguably one of the most important considerations is a full recognition of Russia’s economic reliance on petroleum. Oil and gas exports accounted for over 30% of Russian GDP in 2011 (1), while providing half of the state’s budget revenues in 2012 (2). Many European countries depend heavily on Russian fuel and Russian is able to use this It is easy to understand why Russia would go through great lengths to protect its energy sector. 1
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Ukraine Crisis
Because of their deteriorating economy, in November of 2013 Ukraine was faced with making one of two choices to stimulate it economy. Take a 15B loan from Russia or enter into less than optimal trade agreement with Europe. At the last minute, Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych decided to reject the European deal and side with the Russian offer. This decision led to riots of the Western (pro Europe) section of the Ukraine who saw the current president as essentially a servant of Putin and corrupt. Riots ensued and the Kremlin-backed President Viktor Yanukovych was run out of office. This point in time was critical, because it can be argued that this is when Putin realized that he had lost control of Ukraine and would need to deal with the negative consequences. These consequences included; the potential loss of a strategic military location, the loss of vital oil delivery resources and the loss of political face at home, where nationalist would see another victory of the western world. Not a good result. It was at this time (Nov 2013) that Putin put in motion the steps to reduce his losses in Ukraine and make a move to reset the balance of power that was shifting. Putin puts in motion the annexation of Crimea, the pro-Russian section of Ukraine. Fortunately, this takes place without any real bloodshed, although it is clear that Putin planned for this possibility by raising and preparing his military along the Ukraine border. Unfortunately and assuredly expected, Putin would need to deal with consequences from harsh response from West in the form of additional sanctions
Commentary on Speach
With the immediate events of Crimea behind him, now Putin must secure his own power by maintaining his support with his constituents in Russia and this take us to the Crimea speech to the Russian Federation In this Putin sets out to accomplish several things. Keep in mind here that annexation of Crimea, although not official, is already set way in motion under direction of Putin who doesn’t need to ask for permission. Putin is aware that this speech will be reviewed internationally and he lays out points to first legitimize Russian as a savior in some sense in coming to the rescue of Russian resident of Crimea who voted to succeed back to Russia and whose designation as part of Ukraine was illegitimate from the beginning. Another words Russia was taking back what free citizen there wanted etc…But the second half of speech he ups the
He MUST secure the continued support of his constituent… and he does this by contending with the WEST… and establishing the notion that the only choice for Russia is to be powerful.. to NOT be tricked as they have in the past by the west
All of the points can be debated and were. At length. The important thing for Putin is that his constituent agree.
Secondarly Putin more or less indirectly lays out the future position of Russia where they are not going to sit around while the west says one thing and does another. Russia will pursue russian interest, becoming powerful etc. His constituets love it
He clearly lays out a strategy based on realism
Point above. From Putin standpoint it was not important if every nuance of the speach was true. What is important is constituent were on board and back him
Legacy
What will be legacy of this speech? This largely depends on the future of Russia. The hard reality is nationalism can only take you so far before the prosperity and quality of a person’s life effect their government support.. In this regard Putin’s moves in Crimia have come at the expense of his economy as sanctions applied by the West have had a negative effect. He understood this to be the case. Secondly, as mentioned earlier, Russia economy is highly dependent on oil. Oil prices since 2014 have steadily declined to their current low levels and Putin has not moved extensively to diversify his economy. Certainly, this represents another head-wind to the economy. All the while the western world will be watching his moves closely to see if he intends to replicate his actions in Crimea in another suitable post USSR country. Putin has his work cut out to maintain his support at home.