Global economic interdependence will mean that China’s rise will be peaceful. Its rise has been described as ‘one of the great dramas of the twenty-first century.’ (Ikenberry, 2008). China’s rise is likely to cause rising tension but will be peaceful in the sense that war will not break out between the US and China. The rise of China has pitted Realist against liberals. Realists have many assumptions about the rise of China all of which will lead to conflict. There is a claim that a power transition is underway and with growing influence for China, realists argue will cause China to go against the world order which the West would not allow. China poses little threat to the Liberal world order and will continue to participate heavily in the system because it values the protections and norms. Realists also claim that a ‘Thucydides Trap’ is ongoing between the US and China leading to the US to fear China’s rising power creating a sense of war. However, China’s growth has been encouraged by the US and the US needs China to continue to grow for its own economic prospects. Security Issues such as the South China sea is the most likely issue to cause conflict according to realists. This however will not be the case; China has increased its cooperation on the issue for economic reasons and will not got to war over its claims. Therefore, China’s rise although likely to cause tension will not cause war thus being peaceful.
China’s growing economic strength and Americas stagnating growth has led realists to argue that a power transition is underway. For a power transition to be underway there must be certain conditions for a growing power to challenge, and these ‘Challengers are those powerful and dissatisfied great nations who have grown in power after the imposition of the existing international order’ (Midlarsky, 2011). China has grown in power in a world order that has been imposed and established by the western powers after World War two and the Cold war. And as a ‘dissatisfied great nation approaches parity by growing in power more rapidly than the dominant nation, instability increases and so does the probability of conflict.’ (ibid). China, for realists is an example of a growing power challenging the dominancy of the US in the Liberal world order thus causing this shift in power which would create conflict. This however, is a pessimistic assumption. A shift in power may be under way but this will not cause conflict, the power transition argues that a rising power must be dissatisfied at the current order for conflict to arise. The current Liberal world order, although not perfect for China is a world order that enables it to grow at substantial rates. China, is largely supportive of the existing order. ‘Where China has made its greatest advances, it has done so through working within existing frameworks and norms’ (Clark, 2011). Economic norms such as the importance of trade and the idea of globalisation/economic interdependence have provided China with the opportunity to open its markets and export its manufacturing goods world-wide. It is trade and globalisation which have led to China experiencing huge economic growth. ‘Beijing has since come to embrace interdependence and globalization with increasing enthusiasm’ (Deng and Moore, 2004). The significance of this is the fact that China has embraced the norms that the western world order has promoted because it has seen the benefits first hand in terms of economic growth. ‘Annual Growth Rate in China averaged 9.69 percent from 1989 until 2017’ (Tradingeconomics.com, 2017). To challenge these norms would be too costly for China because to go against the established norms without openly and aggressively challenging the dominance of the west would take decades like the establishment of the liberal world order took decades. This length of time would be uncertain and China, although rising, faces issues. Recently its credit rating was downgraded amid uncertain growth. S&P Global Ratings Is the second global credit rating agency to downgrade China credit due to ‘diminished financial stability’ (Bloomberg.com, 2017). Therefore, for China to embark on a radical shape up of the world order, which China has benefited from would be too costly. It would also ostracise themselves from the order, ‘China not only needs continued access to the global capitalist system; it also wants the protections that the system's rules and institutions provide’ (Ikenberry, 2008). Linking back to the power transition theory that realists propose, ‘power transition argues that competition for dominance in the international order is finally joined when the dissatisfied party anticipates greater benefits and privileges if a conflict is successfully waged than if the current status quo is preserved’ (Midlarsky, 2011). From the evidence suggested above China is not looking to wage conflict because it values the existing order as it has created its growth and allows China to grow making waging a war too costly. Therefore, the realist assumption of a conflict-ridden power transition is incorrect.
As China rises, it has started to assert itself in the Asian region especially in regards to its claims to the South China sea. This has led realists to argue that a security dilemma is ongoing within the region and this could spark war between the powers in the region. From a realist perspective ‘If security dilemma theory is applied to East Asia, the chance for spirals of tension in the area seems great’ (Christensen, 1999). China’s claims to small and uninhabited islands in the South China sea has fuelled historical tension in the region and now that China is creating artificial islands with security installations tensions are increasing. Tensions however will not reach a point where conflict will occur. ‘Currently six states and parties claim title to all or part of the South China Sea islands. China, both mainland and Taiwan, and Vietnam have claimed the whole of the Paracel and Spratly Islands archipelagos as their territory’ (Gao, 1994). China’s military build-up on these islands are defensive rather than offensive and China will not go to war over it claims even if its rhetoric seems that way. China being one of the most powerful of the states involved, has asserted its claim more than others but China has the most to lose if this goes wrong. Chinese officials realise that it would be a costly conflict if war was to occur between the US and China. The Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi announced that “Any sober-minded politician, they clearly recognise that there cannot be conflict between China and the United States because both will lose, and both sides cannot afford that.” (Hutchens, 2017). Although China would have the most to lose, Wang is correct in saying that both would lose. The economic interdependence between both nations means that America would lose one of its biggest trading partners which would harm its fragile economic growth. America also depends on Chinse foreign direct investment (FDI) ‘Chinese investment into U.S. exceeded that of U.S. investment into China for the first time in 2015, highlighting Chinese companies’ rising global influence and the changing dynamics of the relationship’ (Reuters, 2016), investing invested a record $45.6bn (Donnan,2017). This investment generates jobs and is valuable to American growth. Furthermore, China’s policy in regards to its south China sea has moved from aggression to cooperation. China has used their growing economic ability to calm the nerves of many states within the region. China has becoming increasingly cooperative with ASEAN nations and has signed Free trade deals which will have increased economic interdependence and with that, has signed treaties to ease concerns over its claims. In October 2003, it became the first major Asian state outside ASEAN to sign up to the association’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, the provisions of which likewise rule out the use of force for settling issues in dispute and signed declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, renouncing violent means of dealing with disputed sovereignty claims in these waters (Foot, 2006). The significance of this is that China is trying to ease the tensions that have been created in the region by using multilateral agreements while also creating an area of economic interdependence which would make it costly for any of the ASEAN states to break of relations with the economic powerhouse of China.
Another assumption about the rise of China is that the US will not allow China to rise and will not threaten its position. Realist claim that there is another ‘Thucydides Trap’, The phrase which is a reference to a historian’s observations about the coming war between Sparta and Athens. ‘This trap describes the dangers of a period in which an established great power is challenged by a rising power’ (Rachman, 2017). This assumption that America may create conflict to halt China’s supposed challenge to American dominance. This assumption however relies on the fact that America does not want China to rise, which is not the case. America has been one of biggest encourages for the rise of China, even before China started to open its markets and experienced its economic boom, America was welcoming China to the international system. ‘In fact, it was Roosevelt who urged–over the opposition of Winston Churchill–that China be included as a permanent member of the UN Security Council’ (Ikenberry, 2008). Although America at the time could not have predicted that China could grow to the point it is today, it is still a considerable action to allow China to have one of the most powerful positions in the UN. This openness by the US has continued through the decades and even as China’s economy has grown at exponential rates making it a rising power. This is especially prevalent in growing pressure by some western countries to revitalise international institutions, ‘there are growing pressures, notably the need for resources and the need to maintain relevance, that will likely persuade the Western states to admit China into the inner circle of these economic governance institutions’ (Ibid). To get into conflict with China might weaken the already fragile institutions which then in turn could destabilise western growth. Therefore, it is in the west and the US’ interests to promote China to take a more prominant role to protect the order and make use of China’s resources. Furthermore, a ‘Thucydides Trap’ is not underway because China cannot take on the military might of the US. Chinese economic power it is predicted, will overtake the US which in turn may increase Chinese military spending but will not surpass Americas thus making China unlikely to wage war. Currently America spends the most on its military spending than any other nation and this is likely to continue. By 2045 America will still have a considerable lead in terms of military spending (Roser and Nagdy, 2017). This will ease the concerns of military officials in the US who pride the power and might of the US military and would not accept the US to be a second-rate military power. This also makes it unlikely for China to consider military action against the US because it would likely lose. The greatest threat that many realists claim that could spark conflict by the US is China’s threat to US economic supremacy and with that the west’ strong economy. However, as Kagan replies to Kupachan who expressed this concern stating that ‘Europe's economy remains vast, and the influence it wields on the world stage on a broad range of issues remains greater than that of China. The United States and Europe, working together, have out maneuvered both China and Russia on issues such as Iran, Libya, and perhaps increasingly Syria’ (Kupachan, 2012). China may increase its influence but as explored, the US has encouraged China to do so and if China does not pose a threat to American military power this ‘Thucydides Trap’ is unlikely to happen. Therefore, China’s rise will be peaceful.
In conclusion, China’s rise will be peaceful as many of the realist assumptions of international relations are overly pessimistic and has missed the importance that economics play. China poses little threat to the Liberal world order and has in fact embraced many of the norms and frameworks and will continue to work within the world order to keep its economic growth. China’s economic growth dictates many of its policies and has recently been more fragile than it has in the past and so therefore China must be careful not to create conflict between trading partners which is why it has engaged in multilateral agreements to ease concerns over its rise and its claims to the South China Sea. The Post World War two era, has been a period of global economic growth and interdependence which has seen a remarkable reduction in the number of major conflicts world-wide due to the importance of sustainable growth which conflict would hinder. China wants and needs for its rise to be peaceful to keep this economic growth and so will not want war. Economics and liberalism have the most valid claim to the peaceful rise of China. For these reasons China’s rise, will be peaceful.