In comparison to the world, Southeast Asia is thriving and developing. On the hand, there are a few countries within the region that cannot say the same. Indonesia is a nation of chronic turmoil, which leads to Southeast Asia’s youngest country, East Timor, also known as Timor Leste. Timor-Leste, a young nation in the Southeast region of Asia, has a tumultuous history that has been revolving since Indonesia’s withdrawal in 1999 (Roy 2015). It is suggested that the problem in Timor-Leste are typical and indicative of a growing nation of the post-cold war global order (Roy 2015). However, their history in recent times is reflective of human rights violations that are systematic, widespread, and in complete disregard of international humanitarian law (Roy 2015).
Aboriginal antiquity of the island of Timor is limited but is entrenched in colonization. Prior to colonization, Timor was separated into dozens of small sovereignties ruled by separative officials (Fox 2007). The Portuguese were the first European arrivals on Timor, in 1511 establishing a foothold (Braithwaite 2012). The Portuguese capital then moved to Dili in 1769. Soon after, Dutch colonization started in 1568, with the Dutch East India Company building a fort and trading compound in the seventeenth century in Kupang (Braithwaite 2012). Although the Dutch and Portuguese both had a presence on the island, neither had significant control over the kingdoms outside their trading ports (Fox 2007). Portuguese attentiveness was limited; The 1859 Treaty of Lisbon ended the intermittent conflict between the proxies of the Portuguese and Dutch on Timor (Braithwaite 2012). Without knowing, this colonial divide would carry on into current times by giving the eastern half of the island plus the enclave of Oecussi to Portugal, the rest to the Dutch (Braithwaite 2012).
In more recent times after the colonizers left the island, there have been many wars involving East Timor. The Battle of Timor, East Timor Genocide, Indonesian Invasion of East Timor, and the Indonesian Occupation of East Timor (Roy 2015). The invasion of East Timor by Indonesia was conducted under the pretenses of anti-colonialism and overthrowing the Fertilin led government (Roy 2015). With American weapons in hand, the Indonesian military was able to establish a foothold and face a daunting insurgency resistance. Since this time to present there have been chronic episodes between the Indonesian and East Timorese people over East Timor (Roy 2015). The secessionist movements stem from the East Timorese people wanting to be independent with autonomy from Indonesia; however, there are various schools of thought as to why Indonesian wants to control the little nation of East Timor. Pro East Timorese individuals may question why the Indonesian public interest in East Timor was not aroused until the Dili Massacre in November of 1991, in which hundreds of people were slain in a cemetery. Regardless, the Indonesian public reaction remains passive – possibly because the violence was not mutually exclusive of East Timor, and the citizenry focused on the violence taking place within their borders.
In regard to the political justification for the secession of East Timor, the parties are split into all sides to include members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), United Nations, and religions. The members of the pro-democracy movement are split, where some are concerned about the socioeconomic welfare and human rights issues in East Timor, whilst others are solely interested in self-determination through the United Nations referendum, which historically has not gone in their favor (Roy 2015). In addition, a major part of the political systems within this part of Asia are heavily influenced by their military. That being said, based on the tremendous sensitivity of the military on East Timor and the notion of Indonesia as a unitary state further divides the schools of thought as to the independence of East Timor (Roy 2015). The military has a strong position in Indonesian politics and groups believe that the military may support political change. They cannot change anything without military support. In order to circumvent military issues, they stay clear of subjects that might negatively arouse them.
This fear is evident in how the governmental bodies within the regions around them believe that a unitary Indonesia symbolizes strength and if East Timor were to secede then others, such as Java and Jakarta (Roy 2015) might follow suit based on the latest public dissatisfaction with government in the region. Secessionist adversaries continue to note other key areas such as Manila in the Philippines, where Muslim rebels will seek outside support from independent East Timor (Roy 2015).
Conversely, some argue that the Nation of Timor Leste, East Timor, should stay with Indonesia because it is small and very poor. This is not to note the sheer amount of natural resources found within the region that actively employs a large population of its citizenry. Moreover, East Timor scarcely appears on the agenda of the pro-democracy movement (Roy 2015). The people who do push and advocate for independence do not have the numbers to substantiate their argument. This is brought on by current struggles with widespread corruption within the nation, relations with nations of the Global North regarding maritime boundaries, socioeconomic status, and the sheer presence of the United Nations in the country that negatively effects its overall development (Roy 2015).
For example, the United States who has their hands in the pot since arming the Indonesian army in the 1970s, support Indonesia on East Timor. This is partly due to Indonesia as a strategic partner in regard to the Non-Aligned Movement; role in OPEC and natural resource dealings; American business and trade interest in the growing Indonesian markets; and established sea lanes in the area between the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Not to mention, it may not be far off that Indonesian is a significant Muslim country that has been used by the United States to release hostages in Middle Eastern countries, and its position and sway in ASEAN.
The chances of East Timor seceding and becoming successful are based on applicable modes of change. Per the Hunting Thesis ‘replacement’ by means of oppositional forces and ‘transplacement’ brought by negation between those in power and opposition is necessary (Roy 2015). In regard to both of these modes of change, critical ideas are significantly dependent on the democratization in Indonesia post-Suharto (Roy 2015). Nonetheless, it is important to note that in a Suharto regime political setting, it is not likely for the people of East Timor to establish complete sovereignty. In the setting of a new government based on democratization, the post-Suharto regime would need strong domestic and international backing in order to consolidate authority (Roy 2015). This and all other measures would require a cooperative relationship between democratic Indonesian parties and promoters for East Timorese independence is crucial (Roy 2015).