Chapter one
Introduction
BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
One of the factors identified and considered as a major contributor of death in Ghana is vehicular accident. Vehicular accident can therefore be defined as the collision of a vehicle with another vehicle, animals, pedestrians, or any other object. And this can lead to loss of life, damage of properties, death and injuries. Statistics reveals that about 96% of the country’s freight use road transport. Thus, most people in our country (Ghana) use road transport for their daily activities, according to the Ministry of Road and Transport report MRT(2008). According to the Building and Road Research Institute (2009), there were 12,299 road accidents for the year 2009, Afukaar et al (2009). Furthermore, (W.H.O, 2008) also reveals that approximately 3000 people die from road accident each day around the world. There is a high rise in morbidity and mortality in developing countries as a result of some combinations like rapid motorization, poor road and traffic infrastructure as well as the behavior of road users (Nantulya and Reich, 2002). According to AUSTROADS (1994), more than one of the following factors; Human factors; Vehicular factors; Road and environmental factors are the causes of road accidents in the world. Despite all the road safety campaigns by the commission, there is an alarming rate of vehicular accidents occuring. Professor Agyeman Badu Akosor, the former Director General of Ghana Health Service said that the most deadly disease in Ghana at the moment is motor accident Due to this a lot of researchers have come out with the causes, effects, predictions and recommendations to vehicular accidents. These causes include drunk while driving, machine failure and over speeding etc. Still every year the road safety commission, Ghana Statistical Service and other organizations would report an increase in vehicular accidents, Annual Reports, National Road Safety Commission(2009 Ghana) . The swell in number of accidents is not sufficient for one to conclude that actually there is an increase in vehicular accidents. Therefore, there is the need to analyze the accidents data statistically to inspect whether there is any proof of the swelling of road accidents as years go by, following the large number of people losing their lives. This research will deliberate on the rate of road accidents and its impact on human lives in Brong-Ahafo Region of Ghana. Researchers have been modeling vehicular accidents with crash prevention models in various parts of the world. However, it is extremely difficult to just apply models which have worked somewhere to data obtained from different countries due to the variations in the various factors concern in different countries, Fletcher et al (2006). There has not been much statistical research in the field of road accident in Brong-Ahafo Region. This might have been because of the inadequate information available on road accidents and its impact on human live in the region. The Motor Transport and Traffic Department (MTTD) and the Road Safety Commission have made ready statistics on vehicular accident for the past five years. The most painful part of this problem is that the most casualties of road accidents are the working force of this nation. In this awareness, more attention needs to be drawn on researching into vehicular accidents in Brong Ahafo and in Ghana as a whole. It is in view of this that this project was done to analyze and determine whether or not there is an increase or decrease in vehicular accidents in this region (Brong Ahafo).
Problem statement
Vehicular accidents in Brong-Ahafo seem to be holding a position of decreasing status. Since there have not been many research works on vehicular accidents done in this region, the regional MTTD and road safety commission (RSC) had difficulties in making projections about vehicular accidents in this region (Brong Ahafo). The purpose of this project is to analyze and determine whether or not there is an increase or decr,ease in vehicular accidents in the region and again to forecast and predict future occurrences.
In relation to the method to use in the analyses, it is necessary to use time series techniques which can better describe and model the vehicular accident data.
OBJECTIVE OF THE RESEARCH
The main objectives of this project are as follows:
1. To identify patterns of the vehicular accident cases the Brong Ahafo Region over the period of 2013-2017.
2. Develop a suitable time series forecasting model for the vehicular accident cases over the period 2013 – 2017 and use it to estimate 3 years forecast
JUSTIFICATION FOR THE STUDY
This research has become very necessary to conduct, following the accident state in this region (Brong Ahafo). The findings of this project would be useful for road safety planning in the Brong Ahafo region.
Another usefulness of this project work is to provide a better opportunity for the regional MTTD to use better and more reliable statistical technique such as time series in analyzing their accident data as this would help them in making better accident forecasts.
Time series techniques are used in many fields and road safety is no exception. The results of the project would also add to the many research works carried out in road safety in this region and the nation as a whole.
Methodology
Secondary data was taken from the Brong Ahafo regional Motor Transport and Traffic Department (MTTD). A historical quarterly and annual vehicular accident for the years 2013 through 2017 was compiled from the regional MTTD of the Ghana Police Service. Time series analysis was the main statistical tool used for the analysis with the help of R statistical software.
The projects methodology consists of the following:
Model identification
Model estimation
Diagnostics checks on model adequacy followed by forecasting.
ORGANIZATION OF THE PROJECT.
The remaining portion of the project was organized as follows:
Chapter 2 presents literature review, followed by Chapter 3 on methodology. Chapter 4 focused on data collection and analysis. Conclusions and recommendations were presented in Chapter 5.