At the stroke of the midnight hour of August 15th 1947, as the rest of the world slept it was India that graciously awoke to eternal life and freedom. It was a moment when finally the long lost battle of agitations of millions of Indians came to rest with the inadvertent exit of the mighty British Raj from a land, which the Indians called their own. From its independence, India has undergone countless changes not only socially, but also politically, militarily and culturally. Where India was expected and in a way forced to support the British in the First and the Second World War, on the other side it happened to be the very country that founded the Non Alignment Bloc. The NAM was a movement which cut through the bipolarity of the world to establish a neutral and decisive third front that wouldn’t let a particular country dictate its interests. However, it is pertinent to mention that even though India birthed the NAM it is also the very same country that drained its wealth and military capacity in the 1962 and 1967 Indo-Sino War and the 1965, 1971 and 1999 India-Pakistan Wars.
India has always believed in change as the only constant and has evolved according to the needs of its citizens. Responding to the 1991 Balance of Payments crisis, policy makers opened gates to Liberalisation, Privatisation and Globalisation to restore the country’s financial capabilities. These reforms have today, not only skyrocketed India’s economic growth but have also made this country a global competitor.
However, even though India has come this far we still are miles away from achieving triumph at regional, economic and global levels. India has yet not become the country that our freedom fighters had imagined and envisioned. There are many situations that are threat to national security of India and have slowed the growth pace. National security encompasses security of the state from external and internal threats so that citizens of the country are physically, mentally, economically and socially secure within the borders and country is able to realise its developmental potential in a secure environment.
In the contemporary era, term ‘national security’ has broadened to also include other emerging threats such as food security, water security, energy security, environmental concerns such as climate change, etc.
INTERNAL THREATS
Rise of Naxalite violence in Eastern part of India had been described as “the biggest challenge concerning internal security of India” in 2006 by the then PM Shri Manmohan Singh. Although violence-related deaths in naxal-affected areas have been continuously decreasing since 2010, the figure yet remains above 300. Tactfully dealing with naxalism to permanently put it at rest would require concrete steps at improving governance and bridging developmental deficit. Trust deficit in Indian border areas whether it be Kashmir, Northeast states or Punjab points to a serious problem of lack of inclusion. Matters get worse when there are now and then reports of cooperation between various insurgent groups like recently naxalites have called on ULFA to join hands in destruction of Indian State. Kashmir which is crown of India recently got embroiled in controversies with killing of Burhn Wani and subsequent protests. Alongwith it, communalism, often triggered by trivial incidents and vested political interests, is another major threat to India’s internal security. 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots and 2015 Dadri lynching are cases in point.
EXTERNAL THREATS
India’s security scenario greatly depends on the evolution of regional security situation and relations with neighbours especially Pakistan and China. Regional stability would magnificently contribute to India’s stability as a country and hence till the time that is not secured, India has a lot of work to do.
CHINA
China has over the decades grown economically and militarily with focus on defence strategy and obtaining a position in the International domain from where it can aggressively assert itself. Given the uneven history between India and China there exist various issues that can potentially turn into threats for India in the coming decade.
The first issue between the two is the unresolved border dispute, which lies at the heart of relations between China and India. The Chinese have two major claims on what India deems its own territory, one in the western sector and other in the eastern sector. In the western sector, they have transgressed for upto 24 kms without seeking any formal permission from the Indian authorities. The second issue is that of China’s growing influence in South China Sea. In the case of Phillipines v. China, the permanent Court of Arbitration opined that China does not have any exclusive claim on the domain of South China Sea. However this has been flouted by China very guiltlessly. To balance this, India, USA and Japan launched the trilateral Malabar joint Naval exercise in the South China Sea in order to check Chinese influence but nothing as such has been able to contain China’s bullying in that region. The effects of such actions of China pose serious security threats to India. China has been an ardent supporter of Pakistan all through, something, which has not only been made clear by the very ambitious plans of One Belt One Road and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor but was accentuated by China’s refusal to declare Pakistan a terrorist state at the United Nations General Assembly Meeting in 2016. Along with this China also has enhanced its involvement in PoK, especially in the Gilgit-Baltistan area, resulting in a de facto third party status in Kashmir since the CPEC will pass through the same, ultimately giving a signal that it recognizes the illegal occupation by Pakistan of the POK as legitimate. Another concern is China’s “String of pearls” strategy in the Indian Ocean Region by having presence at ports of neighbouring countries such as Sittwe port, Hambantota port, etc. for power projection and influence. Another issue is that of Damming of rivers, with no agreements existing between the two countries, it is a potential threat to the water security of India. Recently when India was on the stages of deciding to not follow the Indus Water Treaty it was China that blocked the flow of water of Brahmaputra’s tributary to India. Another issue between India and China is that of the Use of Information Warfare, Cyber warfare, deception and intense psychological warfare which will be used as detriments of non-contact war in peacetime, a threat that looms over India for the next decade.
PAKISTAN
India and Pakistan have always been at logger heads with each other, ever since their inception. The present trends especially after the Pathankot attacks of January 2016 and the Uri Attacks of September 2016 bode ill for Pakistan and unless this changes, the situation will continue to be a source of instability and terror. The nuclear arsenal with Pakistan and its irresponsible political diaspora is a major cause of concern for India. The main issue that India has with Pakistan is border dispute in J&K – which has been and shall be the central cause for conflicts between India and Pakistan over the next decade just as it has been a hot spot for the last six decades. The issue of Kashmir and the unstability in the valley, if not cured in time, will stare at India as a monster. Pakistan has never made an attempt to punish the perpetrators of crimes that are casted against India on Indian soil, like the 26/11 massacre the mastermind of which roams free in the territory of Pakistan, and such practice may lead to an increase in terror activities against India by state-funded groups. Pakistan’s “theory of Strategic depth”, which it has not only being following in case of India but also in the case of Bangladesh and Afghanistan is something that not only will keep the Kashmir region in turmoil but also poses major threats to other areas of India in the next decade. Recent “surgical strikes” by India against militant launch pads across the LoC are a signal to Pakistan that India won’t remain silent against its anti-India activities.
AFGHANISTAN
Pakistan’s theory of strategic depth in Afghanistan poses a major security threat to India. Regional stability is affected by the deteriorating security environment in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. This area is the epicentre of Islamic extremist fundamentalism, illicit trade in arms and drug trafficking. Withdrawal of US forces has further deteriorated the situation. In terms of Afghanistan, there can be proxy wars and insurgency fuelled, supported and aided by China and Pakistan. The talibanisation of the Afghani society could be used to foster negative sentiments towards India. As of today India and Afghanistan are allies but in the field of international relations, its not friends but the interests of a country that never change. Hence, it is uncertain yet an anxious attempt to fully understand the threat that Afghanistan could cause India in the next decade.
ISIS THREAT
Terrorism has been haunting India ever since independence. India has faced both home-grown terror with/without external support and external state and non-state sponsored terror. In the coming decade, ISIS poses a great threat to India’s national security. Cadres of ISIS are trying to radicalize and recruit the discontented youth from minority community through social media. As per reports, about 20 “missing Indians” have possibly joined ISIS. Recruitment videos targeting India show ISIS talking about avenging atrocities against Muslims in Mumbai, Gujarat and Assam. How the equations emerge between ISIS and other terrorist organizations active in the region such as Al-Qaeda in the Subcontinet (AQIS), LeT and IM will determine the impact of ISIS on India’s national security scenario in future. India’s position between Wilayat Khurasan, administrative division of ISIS in the Indian subcontinent, in the West and “Bengal’s Fighters” in the East makes it vulnerable to guerilla attacks from both sides. Deradicalisation drives, inclusive development, strengthening of security forces and intelligence and coordination at international level are must to stem the ISIS threat.
MARITIME SECURITY
Being a peninsula and having islands in its territory, India’s maritime security is one of the most important components of national security. Growing economies of India and China are increasingly dependent on sea transport of bulky energy and raw materials. Thus safety of sea lanes of communication and their use in accordance with international law has gained paramount importance in today’s world. Chinese strategy of string of pearls is making matters worse in this region. Indian Ocean region because of its location at crossroads of world maritime trade is going to be a theatre of future confrontations which warrant more and more attention by Indian policy makers in this region in coming decade.
CYBER SECURITY
In this information age, cyber security poses a dangerous threat to national security. In this extremely technological world, cyber spying is being resorted by all the states covertly, thus making the sensitive information and date vulnerable to leakage. India has a poor track record in securing its important websites and data, thus cyber security becoming a critical issue of concern, which will continue to exist for the next one decade atleast. The India cyber connect (organization) in 2013 underlined that “India is one of the leading victims of cyber-crime and the cyber security market is estimated at around US $ 218 million”.
According to the defence Minister Manohar Parrikar “there has been almost 40 percent annual increase in cyber crimes registered in the country during the past 2-3 years” . Though the Indian companies have been able developing indigenous technologies to counter cyber concerns but only limited success has been achieved. Hacking of important websites of India, e.g. BARC and ECIL show how far we still have to go. In 2014, there was one incident, of a major security breach in which some sensitive information, was leaked from the computer systems of DRDO. Such leaks aren’t something that India can afford in the coming times. The vulnerability of India’s cyber security is exacerbated by the fact that most of India’s communication and cyber security technologies and skills are highly dependent on imports from and co-operation with developed countries of the world. Most of the mobile phone devices use many Chinese made components. India needs to achieve self-reliance in cyber defence capabilities and till the time it won’t do so, the threat would loom above its sensitive information.
OTHER EMERGING CHALLENGES
Ensuring physical, social and economic access to food for all is paramount for ensuring national security. On the one hand, deprivation of this basic need makes the people vulnerable to engaging in anti-social activities and getting influenced by left-wing extremists and on the other hand, it doesn’t let the people fully participate in development of the nation thus undermining growth potential of the nation. Growing population, decreasing land area under agriculture, peaking productivity levels under current technology and challenges in effective implementation of policy, make food security a great concern in the coming decade. Similarly, water and energy security are very important for the very livelihood of people and realizing developmental potential of the nation. Environmental concerns such as climate change are likely to exacerbate these challenges.
There are some thinkers that have opined that there would be a third world war, which won’t be fought over anything, but water. In today’s times when water is scarce and is depleting, securing its access for everyone should be India’s major concern. Population pressures and changes in climatic patterns are having adverse effect on availability of water while the demand is continuously expanding. India shares rivers and watersheds such as Indus, Brahmaputra, Ganges, etc. with neighboring countries and it is very likely that an issue may rise in the future regarding the sharing of water.
Conclusion
It is said that the 21st century belongs to Asia. India’s aspirations to play a meaningful role in this century while ensuring inclusive development and handling demographic pressures will have to deal with the aspirations of other regional powers. Confidence-building measures with neighboring countries need to be kept on track to ensure regional stability. India needs to be the catalyst to ensure regional peace and security due to its location, size and democratic strength. This also needs effective strengthening of technological, economic and military capabilities. Thus, India is at major crossroads and urgency of time demands India to rise to occasion. Not only this, if India wants to play a major global role, it has to show to world its vision of a secure global future. This is possible with canvassing of idea of strong India capable of tackling any major security problem in coming decade. Hopefully this idea of India will emerge in world amidst clouds of challenges and will serve as limelight for whole global populace.