In the 21st century we are seeing a rise in Chinese power and influence.
Size of China economy has quadrupled since late 1970s and should double again.
How the united states can keep its power during the rise of china.
Aspects that determine the power transition: degree of dissatisfaction with old order, rising states regime.
Pessimistic:
China using power to reshape the status quo.
China becoming a growing security threat.
Bring tension, distrust and conflict
Asian centered world order. Rising china changing status quo for their own interest.
Rise of china will be different from other change of power: faces whole western system that is open integrated and rule-based. Security competition leading to war like Germany and England.
China being communist will expand different order than the previous power transition.
WMD have reduced likelihood of wars which takes away past ways of reducing powers
Western powers hard to overturn easy to join, if china joins it can thrive and the western powers can still survive
China vs US china will win. China vs Western system West will win
Policy:
To strengthen the Western systems and institutions to make it very hard to overturn and easier to join. US most powerful strategic weapon is the fact that it can decide what kind of international order will be in place once China rises to the top.
Make sure the western system offers rules and institutions that benefit full range of states.
Not all transitions of power need a war, some states have seen huge economic growth and just adjusted to stay in the current order.
US must be #1 supporter of the global system. Collective problem solving plus put US at front and gain support if it is trying to strengthen existing rule and institutions. Other states will be inclined to join, which will then strengthen western centrality.
Updating old bargains from postwar agreements. Reaffirming political value of alliances. Renewed US leadership in the WTO: Doha Round of trade talks.
Strengthen multilateral agreements on global warming and nuclear proliferation.
Getting rid of bilateral and minilateral arrangements so that the US isnt just tied to a couple states in different regions (this would cause china to do the same thing. Causing a US vs China system) The more security and economic relations are multilateral the more coherent the global system will be.
Double efforts to integrate developing countries, BRICs could be stronger than the G-6 countries bringing them onboard now will bring down incentives to overpower the western system already in place.
Make the Western order so institutionalized and expansive that china has no choice but to become a member of it.
China already a member of UN Security Council and WTO
Roosevelt started ties with China
China has grown WITHIN the western order: China economic interest align with that of the current global econ system. Only way to become world power is through western order.
IMF has included china, china has 6% of votes and a single-country seat in the exec board.
WTO issues China has had:
Against US: 10/15 cases
US Against China: 21/39 cases
Trump creates tensions with China over trade. Beijing accused Trump of trying to sabotage the global trading system. He first met with China then they agreed that they would work together on diffusing the North Korea problem, once this happened the Donald Trump tweeted that he takes back calling china currency manipulators. But once North Korea tested a missile that was said to be able to reach the united states Trump went on to tweet that past leaders have allowed them to make millions of dollars and yet china has done nothing for them in return and saying that they are all talk on the bases of helping with North Korea. After this Trump called for the US Trade Rep to examine china’s policies, practices and actions of forced transfers of American tech and the theft of American intellectual property. China responded with strong dissatisfaction saying the US was focused on unilateralism and protectionism. Trump said that the US was considering stopping all trade with any country that is doing business with North Korea. China responded by saying that it is unacceptable and unfair that they’re going to be sanctioned for trading with North Korea and trying to resolve tensions.
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