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Essay: Withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and the interests of the US

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Discuss the claim that a premature withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan may not be in the best interests of the United States

The aim of this essay is to discuss the claim that a premature withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan may not be in the best interests of the United States. The American military presence in Afghanistan is one of the most important issues of contemporary international relations. During the past decade the topic of the US and NATO troops in Afghanistan has risen on the political agenda. The American presence in Afghanistan is important, not only for South and Central Asia, and the Middle East, but for an entire international community. This essay will come to a conclusion as to whether American troops should stay the course and keep its forces in Afghanistan or should the US quit from this country. In the first part of this essay I will present a background to the international invasion of Afghanistan following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In the second part I will examine arguments why staying in Afghanistan is in American best interest. These are: Taliban return to power, destabilization of the region and al – Qaida return to its bases in Afghanistan. Secondly I will question these worst – case scenarios. Finally I will examine the arguments of advocates for complete or at least a partial abandoning of Afghanistan

Next year will mark the tenth anniversary of the international coalition attack on Afghanistan. It has been nearly ten years of hard struggle for stabilization, reconstruction and restoring Afghanistan’s capacity to govern. Ten years is a period of time long enough to assess the level of progress made so far and to deliberate over the future of American and international troops in Afghanistan. Before pondering the United States foreign policy towards that country, we need to take a look at the Afghanistan itself.

Although the roots of the international invasion in Afghanistan involve the Soviet-Afghan War and the Afghan Civil War 1992 – 2001 the current conflict began on October 7, 2001, as a direct response to al – Qaeda attacks on the World Trade Centre. After the terrible attacks on WTC on September 11, 2001, American President George W. Bush portrayed Afghanistan as a country deeply connected with al-Qaeda. He insisted that, the Taliban regime is in fact a terrorist organization responsible for the series of coordinated suicide attacks on September11th and therefore insisted on going to war against that country. American neoconservatives justified the invasion by the clear evidence that the religious regime cooperated with terrorist organizations and revulsion at the abominable policies of a group of fundamentalist bullies and thugs. In response to attacks on the World Trade Centre and Pentagon, Bush Administration, with cooperation of the international community, launched a military invasion to root out the barbarian regime. Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan was the first main conflict of the 21st century. The US – led coalition troops in cooperation with the Northern Alliance began a military offensive to overthrow the fundamental regime. This alliance between international troops and the Northern Alliance led to coordination between American air attacks and ground attacks by the United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan .As a result of the massive invasion, Kabul fell on 13 of November 2001, as the Taliban withdrew from most of northern Afghanistan. As more international coalition forces joined the conflict and the United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan troops fought their way southwards, al-Qaida and the Taliban moved towards the mountainous border area between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Since 2002 al-Qaida concentrated on survival on reconstructing its troops. [1]

The invasion in Afghanistan succeeded in two things. The first and most important accomplishment of American invasion is that it elevated al-Qaeda, the Taliban and other terrorist or insurgents to the status of freedom fighters or noble heroes. Secondly the Afghanistan War overthrew the Islamic regime, but it took an enormously heavy toll in military and civilian causalities. Although, the conflict in Afghanistan accomplished its military and political purposes, in 2009 the international coalition is still fighting the Taliban, and terrorists still plotting from this country. Before the initial invasion there were concerns that the conflict may affect surrounding countries and destabilise Pakistan. The Pashtuns religious group, which makes up an enormous part of Taliban uprising, straddles the borderline between Afghanistan and Pakistan[2] Recently these concerns have become reality; the Taliban from Pakistan jeopardise Pakistan’s (which possess nuclear weapons) viability as a state even more than its cousins imperil Afghanistan’s.

It is because the Afghanistan conflict threatens to jeopardize, Central and South Asia that it has become the biggest foreign policy challenge for the 44th and President of the United States. Barack Obama does not see a simple solution for the war in Afghanistan. He has two options; stay the course or send the American forces home. In his opinion the premature withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan may not be in the best interests of the United States. While Barack Obama has been contemplating over sending more forces to Afghanistan, he ought to know that America can neither eliminate the fundamental regime through an exclusively military policy or send troops home and pretend the future of Afghanistan will not directly affect United States national security in the long – term.[3] Here are the several reasons why the United States should remain its troops in Afghanistan and why it is in America best interest.

Advocates of staying the course in Afghanistan share couple of arguments. The most common points out that premature withdrawal from war – torn Afghanistan may lead to the “Somalization” of Afghanistan. Academics and commentators argue that the withdrawal of American troops might lead to the religious fundamentalists returning to power in Afghanistan. In this hypothesis, the Taliban could let al-Qaida and other terrorists enter the country and make use of Afghanistan to successfully attack the American soil again. Abandoning Afghanistan may be beneficial in the short – term but it will result in a guaranteed safe haven for terrorists and lead to a direct rise of religious fundamentalists. It is not so much the training camps in dirt that strengthen the terrorists and let them attack the America but the fact that, whereas, they are now spending most of their resources to attack North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces, a safe haven will release those resources that they can use equip and train individuals in America. The American military presence in Afghanistan is justified by the theory that the defence of America starts in the Afghanistan. George W. Bush once stated that ‘We are fighting these terrorists with our military in Afghanistan and Iraq and beyond so we do not have to face them in the streets of our own cities.[4] To put it simply, American troops have to stay in Afghanistan to prevent terrorist attacks on the United States. The automatic corollary being to prevent terrorist attack similar to events of September, 9th 2001.[5] An early escape from Afghanistan would leave surrounding countries – especially Pakistan – more vulnerable to the Taliban fundamentalists, impair India – Pakistan strife and threaten to pull the whole region down into conflict. That may lead to bloody civil war and fundamentalist rule would return to much of Afghanistan. And the terrorist organizations could gain a stable base of operations. And the North Atlantic Treaty Organization will be shattered, having failed at its most significant military operation to date.

To emphasise the importance of American troops in Afghanistan we can quote the numbers. More than 47000 of the 85795 international coalition forces deployed to Afghanistan are American.[6] And more than 41,000 of that coalition total are part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) operation. Those 85795 international coalition troops face approximately 8,000 to 10,000 Taliban and other factions. The participation of 36 countries is important but often is limited; International coalition contributions are relatively small with only few countries like United Kingdom (9500 troops), Germany, France , Netherland, Italy and Poland over a thousand military forces.[7] Barack Obama described those numbers as ‘ a situation where America is called upon to do the dirty work, or America and the United Kingdom are called upon to do the dirty work, and nobody else wants to engage in actual fire -fights with the Taliban.'[8]
The international community watches closely to see how seriously America is committed to peace – building missions and reconstruction efforts. The International community bases its assessments on whether American boots hit the ground. So, American troops should stay the course in Afghanistan and support NATO forces until the operation against Al Qaeda is over. US logistical capability would let the NATO forces to react rapidly to any difficulties. An American existence in Afghanistan would guarantee that the United States of America has an audible voice on any future decisions concerning the operation and size of the force.

If America takes the responsibility, decides to intervene to stop the violence, criminal activities and genocide in areas like Kosovo and Darfur it must also prevent them from happening in the first place. Former President of the United States of America, George W. Bush, came to office pledging to withdraw American troops from main international peace building missions. But from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to Bosnia and Kosovo he has aptly pointed out that the United States interests are best served by honoring its obligations and following through on operations already started. In Afghanistan the case is no different.[9] If the United States decides to abandon Afghanistan it may lead to an eruption of violence and terrorist attacks on the part of Taliban against those in opposition who will challenge their regime. The conviction that the Afghan people should be responsible for their future oversimplifies the contemporary situation in Afghanistan with the false belief that the Afghans have other options. If Barack Obama decides to withdraw the American troops there will no choices for Afghans. The fundamentalists have brutality and weapons and torture, imprison and kill whoever questions them. It is true that America can be blamed for helping the fundamentalist rule following their conflict with the Soviet Union. The American cooperation with Taliban led to period of killing, torture and repression in Afghanistan. For Sam Sadaei America has to pay its debts now and bring democracy back to Afghanistan. He believes that America can not invade the countries to the detriment of those countries and then quit at exactly the time when the people that America has done harm to with her policies need America the most.[10]

For nearly ten years America has been involved in the Afghanistan conflict. It is believed that America has won this endless war. Now it is time for the United States and its allies face a bit more complicated task – winning the peace. The American desire is a democratic, stable and safe Afghanistan where bases of terrorists plotting attacks are no longer tolerated. When the president of Afghanistan visited Washington he sought guarantees that the necessary troops would help him achieve order and stability where there is none – and that the force would include an American contribution. American troops cannot quit because they have to start pursuing a general plan that accelerates the process of opening up Afghanistan’s economy to foreign investments in infrastructure, education, technology and telecommunications. NATO, along with the United States is in the unique position to conduct the reconstruction of Afghanistan, so local people can have a reliable window to the rest of the globe. If the American policy is genuinely comprehensive, then the presence of US troops in Afghanistan could be considered as an important part in that strategy to protect the innocent and keep the fundamentalists out of the cities while Afghans have an opportunity to live in a free, advanced and respected country.

Those opposing an American withdrawal believe that this could lead to the religious fundamentalists returning to rule, then the Taliban could let terrorist organizations like al Qaida return to their bases, and terrorists could use mountainous Afghanistan to attack American soil again. For those who want withdraw American troops from Afghanistan these three assumptions are shaky and doubtful.

Firstly it is questionable that an US withdrawal could lead the radical Islamists to power in much more of country than they control now. Although, the Taliban are supported by the Pashtun ethnic group in the south, it is believed that they do not have any support in other areas of Afghanistan. Other ethnic groups are afraid that their life will be similar to the life they led under the Taliban regime from 1996 to 2001. This could allow all ethnic and religious groups of Afghanistan to forget about differences among them and resist it – something with which the United States troops could assist even after a complete or partial forces withdrawal.[11]

Secondly, even if the radical Islamists were returned to power, it does not automatically mean that al-Qaida will be given carte blanche the way it did before the attacks on the World Trade Centre. This, after all, is what pushed to the United States operation in Afghanistan just afterwards the attacks. The islamist fundamentalists may as well sacrifice terrorist organizations like al-Qaida just to prevent the possibility of an invasion to its hold on power.

Finally, many opponents of a US withdrawal assume that if the USA decides to quit, al – Qaida will regain its military bases and then plot attacks against America and we will face 9/11 redux. This is another questionable assumption. Al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations have their operational bases in Yemen, Somalia and in the North-West Frontier Province of Pakistan. It is not known how al-Qaida’s getting more bases in Afghanistan could affect its significant capabilities to attack the United States. In fact, almost all terrorists’ attacks against the Western civilization have been arranged and planned in the Western countries and needed exceptionally limited technological capabilities and training. The World Trade Centre attacks were planned in Hamburg, Germany and on Florida by Saudis who only needed to know how to use box-cutters and how to crash an aeroplane. Also, the bomb attacks in London on seventh of July by young British men, who found out how to make bombs from the Internet. According to the US National Security Advisor general Jim L. Jones there are almost no al-Qaida terrorists in Afghanistan. He estimates that there are no more than a hundred fundamentalist in that country. Nor is that a sign that the war is working[12]

One of the most geopolitical results of the United States troops withdrawal from Afghanistan could be a perception of American failure. It is far more averse than what it might add to al-Qaida’s capabilities. Even in the worst scenario – the fundamentalists return to power and they could let terrorist organizations like al-Qaida return to their bases – the worst geopolitical consequences are more likely to be felt, not on the Western Countries ,( which al-Qaida could attack anyway) but the countries neighbouring and near the Afghanistan like Russia, Iran, Pakistan, India, China and other Central Asia countries. The consequences of abandoning Afghanistan could make the governments of these countries feel more vulnerable and thus more willing to push cooperation forward with America, Europe and NATO to impose restraints on al-Qaida and the Taliban within Afghanistan. This is not to say that the complete NATO and American troops withdrawal will be in their best interests. Abandoning Afghanistan will definitely have some negative repercussions. But staying in Afghanistan will also have negative repercussions if the American operation becomes less popular in the USA , Europe and in Afghanistan than it is now.Even if abandoning Afghanistan will lead to the worst scenarios, as its opponents anticipate, this is probably mitigated by Afghan ethnic groups. It can be also mitigated by neighbouring and nearby countries acquiring the impulse to initiate or increase the military collaboration with America against the al – Qaida attacks. Just as staying the course in Afghanistan and increasing the American military involvement will not necessarily result in victory, abandoning Afghanistan will not necessarily lead to defeat.[13]

Another reason to withdraw from Afghanistan is pointed out by the Washington Post commentator George F. Will. He suggests that the United States have failed to create an effective central government in Afghanistan. Many Afghans believe that their President, Hamid Karzai, and his government are so corruptedthat they wish for the return of the local warlords. U.S. Ambassador Karl Eikenberry believes that the Afghan people will give Karzai one more chance but local people yearn for restoration of the warlords, “who were less brutal and less venal than current President of Afghanistan.”[14] President Karzai’s vice presidential running mate and members of his family have been accused of narcotics trafficking. For their part, local people are concerned about problems with performance civilian casualties on the part of some the American allies.[15] America needs to quit because it failed with its idea of peace- building in Afghanistan. The American strategy – stabilization, restoring capacity to govern, rebuilding and reconstruction of local infrastructure – is more and more troop-intensive while the Americans are more and more anxious about “deteriorating” conditions. The American plan is ‘clear, hold and build’ but the fundamentalists and insurgents can vanish and then come back, confident that the American troops will always be too few to hold gains. Afghanistan has never been a democratic, stable and secure country and has never had an effective central government. Trying to build one is a waste of resources and time. So the mission in Afghanistan must come to an end because peace – building and nation – building efforts are impossible. Hence, the American interest is abandoning Afghanistan or at least a substantial reduction of military forces in Afghanistan to serve a comprehensively revised policy: the United States of America should limit itself and should do only what can be done without hundreds of thousands military forces in Afghanistan: using intelligence, potent Special Forces, units, airstrikes, cruise missiles, drones focusing on the porous 1,400 mile border with Pakistan.

Along with columnist George Will, Professor Andrew Bacevich from Boston University questions the depth of American major interests in Afghanistan. He thinks that America and NATO troops are using the wrong means to pursue the wrong mission and calls the US operation an Operation Enduring Obligation (instead of Operation Enduring Freedom). He believes that the American interest is radical change of the course in Afghanistan. The conflict there cannot be won militarily. The only US political goal in Afghanistan should be: to ensure that Al – Qaeda and other terrorist organizations will not use the country as a safe haven for plotting attacks against the America. And can be settled only through politics. American military power becomes more and more limited and constrained these days and American objectives lie elsewhere. Instead of sending more forces to Afghanistan the United States of America should start withdrawing them and establish more affordable and more realistic plan for Afghanistan and the entire region.

If the conflict in Afghanistan becomes the consuming issue of 44th President of the United States of America, Barack Obama – as the Korean War for Harry Truman, the Vietnam War for Lyndon Johnson and the Iraq War for George W. Bush – the inevitable effect will be to compromise the prospects of reform more broadly.[16] As it has been noted above the premature withdrawal from Afghanistan may result in severe consequences. Afghanistan still is not a stable and democratic state, the Taliban is just waiting for the US withdrawal so they can come back to power and al- Qaida has not been defeated. This is a crucial moment not only in Afghanistan but in the United States history as well and Americans owe it to themselves to be clear about what is at issue. That issue relates only tangentially to the Taliban, al – Qaida and the reconstruction of the Afghan state. The question is whether change is still probable. To conclude, the American foreign policy towards Afghanistan is at a crossroads. The terrible reality and the press of time of the United States commitment to Afghanistan can not be forgotten, nor can the importance of Operation Enduring Freedom. America cannot fail, but the mission has not been accomplished yet. The triumph like the horizon seems to be far beyond reach. America is at a point where must focus on the most important tasks and improve the efficiency of its efforts. It needs to learn and adapt or suffer the repercussions.[17]

Bibliography:

1. Afghanistan: Analysts Say Some Neighbors Interfering In Kabul’s Internal Affairs. Ron Synovitz. EurasiaNet, 09 February 2003.
2. Calls Grow for Shift in Afghan Policy David R. Sands. The Washington Times, 31 January 2008.
3. NATO Chief Urges Overhaul of Afghanistan Effort. Judy Dempsey. International Herald Tribune, 05 November 2006.
4. Nato Denies Afghanistan Push in Disarray. Rachel Morarjee and Daniel Dombey. Financial Times, 26 October 2006.
5. NATO Fighting the Wrong Battle in Afghanistan. M.K. Bhadrakumar. Asia Times, 04 November 2006.
6. NATO in Afghanistan: Go Big or Get Out. Roland Paris. The Globe and Mail, 25 October 2006.
7. NATO Winning Battles, Losing Afghanistan. Ali Gharib. Asia Times, 02 February 2008
8. Saving Afghanistan: An Appeal and Plan for Urgent Action The Atlantic Council of the United States, 30 January 2008

9. Side Effects of our War in Afghanistan William S. Lind. Defense and the National Interest, 15 January 2008.
10. Study: Afghanistan Could Fail As a State. Anne Flaherty. The Associated Press, 30 January 2008
11. The Afghan-Pakistan War: A Status Report. Anthony H. Cordesman. Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12 May 2008 (.pdf file).
12. The Afghan-Pakistan War: Threat Developments. Anthony H. Cordesman. Center for Strategic and International Studies, 31 January 2008 (.pdf file).
13. The Future of American Multilateralism. Philip Gordon and Edward Joseph. International Herald Tribune, 27 September 2007.
14. The Troubled Afghan-Pakistani Border. Jayshree Bajoria. Council on Foreign Relations, 29 November 2007.
15. Three Independent Efforts Conclude Efforts in Afghanistan are Failing and Call for Urgent Action.

National Security Network, 31 January 2008.

16. Towards a Grand Strategy for an Uncertain World. Gen. Klaus Naumann et al. Noaber Foundation, 31 January 2008
17. U.K. to Boost Afghanistan Troop Numbers. The Guardian, 01 February 2007.
18. When Pakistan Sneezes, Afghanistan Catches a Cold. Wahidullah Amani. Institute of War and Peace Reporting, 24 January 2008.