Kurdistan September synthesis
The Middle East remains the place of sharp political and socio-ethnic contradictions for many years. Following the military events in Iraq and Afghanistan, the international pressure on Iran, the Arab Spring, the Crisis in Syria and the heyday of the Islamic State, a new problem arose that threatens the integrity of the entire region, namely, independent Kurdistan. The easiest way to briefly describe the Kurds is that they are the largest people in the world who do not have their state. The deep historical roots of the struggle for independence have strengthened against the backdrop of the general weakness of the region, and now the prospect of gaining independence has become even more real as the Iraqi Kurdish authorities have initiated a referendum for proclaiming independence. Nevertheless, an analysis of the events of the last month reveals that, without the support of leading powers, the Iraqi Kurds vote for the creation of their state will have a purely formal character, without serious practical implications.
First of all, it is necessary to refer to the article in Al Jazeera to understand who these Kurds are, why their issues became so relevant today and why their influence in the world is so great despite the fact that their state does not exist on the political map of the world. The Kurdish striving for self-determination and independence is genuinely historic. The current decade marked the 100th anniversary of the signing of the Sevres Treaty (1920) between Ottoman Turkey and the United Kingdom, according to which the Kurds were guaranteed the right of national self-determination in the form of autonomy and, possibly, the creation of an independent state ("Who are the Kurds?", 2017). Nevertheless, this decision was annulled by the Lausanne Treaty (1923), and the Kurds of the ethnic Kurdistan are now divided by the state borders of Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria ("Who are the Kurds?", 2017). However, they did not stop their struggle for national self-determination, but these efforts faced the resistance of the leadership of the governing countries. Iraqi Kurds who received federal status after the overthrow of Hussein's dictatorial regime, in difficult circumstances within the country and the Middle East region as a whole, seek to maintain their semi-autonomous status and remain empathetic to the fate of the Syrian and Turkish Kurds. They are working to create the necessary conditions for the creation of Kurdish autonomies in Syria and Turkey with the goal of further building the independent Kurdish state. Also, the Kurds as a whole played a significant role in confronting the Islamic State (ISIS), and over the past years, significantly strengthened its troops "peshmerga" against the backdrop of the weaknesses of Iraq and Syria (Chulov, 2017). These factors, in general, gave rise to a sharpening of the rhetoric of a referendum on the independence of the Iraqi Kurdistan in early September.
Nevertheless, the development of media discourse shows that the desire of the Iraqi Kurds to independence was not supported by virtually any of the states of the world community. The fears of Iran, Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, are most apparent since the proclamation of one Kurdish state can lead to a parade of the sovereignty of the Kurdish states (or to join the already proclaimed state). Worse, other minorities in the region can claim separatist initiatives, which can undermine the overall stability of the Middle East. Turkey has already sent its troops for military exercises to the borders with the Iraqi Kurdistan. In social networks, in particular, on Twitter and Facebook, there are already a lot of photographs of armored vehicles, tied up in the area of the primary transition between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurdistan (Gumrukcu & Chmaytelli, 2017). Similarly, Iran is opposed to this initiative and threatens to close the borders of oil trade, which can put Kurds in an economic deadlock. Finally, Iraq is particularly zealous about the non-constitutionality of the referendum and demands to abolish it as an ultimatum. At the same time, the city of Kirkuk, which the Kurds captured after the Iraqi troops escaped from here under the pressure of the ISIS, became a stumbling block. As a result, the Iraqi authorities accused the Kurds of wanting to steal Iraqi state oil profits, and in turn blocked the airspace of the Kurds (McKernan, 2017). The United States also expressed concern about the referendum as it could undermine the stability of “one Iraq” policy, as well as the stability of the region and impede further struggle against ISIS (Dubin & Tamkin, 2017). The only state that supported the Kurdish initiative was Israel in the context of its longstanding opposition to the Arab world ("Israel becomes the first state to back an independent Kurdistan," 2017). Nevertheless, it is evident that under these conditions it is not enough to serve as a basis for strengthening independence.
In turn, a sustainable solution to the problem was proposed by Jamal Al-Dhari (2017) in the column of political news for Fox News. The author shares the opinion that it is in the interests of all parties, and the United States, in particular, to preserve the integrity of Iraq. However, this integrity must also be reinforced by the fulfillment of the interests of the Kurds, be it part of oil profits, the guarantee of autonomy, or the rights to possess internal troops (Jamal Al-Dhari, 2017). The current scenario of condemnation can only lead to the further conflicts from which neither side will incur substantial dividends. Thus, the author proposes to establish a joint committee of the central government of Iraq and the government of the Kurdistan authorities. Nevertheless, this decision is also complicated by the involvement of foreign states, as well as by the increased rhetoric in Kurdistan, against the backdrop of a strong Kurdish army and particular political successes. The people of Kurdistan now do not agree to compromises, mainly because recent referendum occurred successfully and the Iraqi Kurds celebrated the victory with 93% of people who voted for secession (Chulov, 2017). After this event, the situation continues to heat up.
However, against the backdrop of the prospect of global isolation, it is challenging to assume that this prospect will get administrative and political outlines. Despite the strength of the army, the Kurds depend on oil trade with neighboring countries, and the aggravation of relations with all countries of the periphery does not promise either stable future to the Kurdish region nor the independence.