1974 was a watershed year for Portugal, not just because they shockingly failed to qualify for the FIFA World Cup, but because it began its transition towards democracy after a military coup dubbed “The Carnation Revolution” usurped power from the authoritarian regime known as the Estado Novo. Tensions between the government and the military coupled with an economic crisis because of conflict in Portugal’s colonies plus the 1973 oil shock, public unrest and foreign pressures all culminated in the Carnation Revolution taking place and the subsequent democratization of Portugal. The definition I have chosen to use is "Democracy is a competitive political system in which competing leaders and organizations define the alternatives of public policy in such a way that the public can participate in the decision-making process.". Since 1974 Portugal has faced stiff challenges like Anti-austerity riots, financial crises and overcoming the fall of its 500-year-old colonial empire but has remained a strong democracy. Though it is highly likely to remain so, the possibility of regression to an authoritarian government or could arise because of the IMF and European Commission’s Troika program and rising support for socialist parties like the Partido Socialista (PS) should not be ignored.
After the Portuguese First Republic failed in 1926, Portugal was in political, economic and social strife which set the stage for a change is political leadership. This led to a dictatorship, under António de Oliveira Salazar and his “Estado Novo” or “New State”. The regime began by purging liberals and democrats via his hardline right-wing military officers which stifled the democratic process during 1926-28, a period called the Ditadura Militar. Further Salazar
outlawed all parties other than his party, the União Nacional, thus creating a one-party system . This meant no elections could be held and thus, democracy could not be implemented as per Schattschneider’s definition which requires the public to make a decision in a competitive political system .
The PVDE, a form of political police was put in place to take down Salazar’s opposition, ensuring his dictatorship continued. This, combined with wide-spread, systematic censorship continued to hinder the possibility of democracy in the region for over 40 years. In 1962 there was the Academic Crisis where students and the youth- mainly progressives and communists opposed Salazar but were suppressed by the secret police swiftly before being exiled or imprisoned. This exam demonstrates why Portugal was not able to democratize before 1974.
A dynamic 7 year period between 1968 and 1974 enabled Portugal to not just democratize but lay the foundation for maintaining democracy in the future. In 1968 Salazar suffered a stroke which led to him being replaced by Marcelo Caetano; this shift in power during the transition process from Salazar to Caetano was seen as a opportunity for certain military officers like Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho and Salgueiro Maia who would go on to become the key leaders of the Carnation Revolution. Though Caetano was fundamentally an authoritarian, his policies were more moderate than Salazar’s, for example, pension reforms and investment in infrastructure. This however, was perceived as weakness by his opposition and became the first factor in the trifecta of reasons for democratization. Though Caetano began by trying to reform and modernize the remnants of the Salazar regime, he reverted back to the authoritarian ways of the Portuguese government after pressure from an influential right-wing faction within the ruling elite. This flip-flop further displayed Caetano as a weak leader as well as reinforced the notion that Portugal was regressing into the oppressive state is was under Salazar: something the further opposition wanted to avoid at all costs. The combination of weak leadership and potential of further political and social repression set in motion the gears of revolution is an unstable state.
The second key factor was Portuguese Colonial war: a conflict where Portugal’s military was engaged in a war with emerging nationalist forces in the Portuguese colonies of Mozambique, Angola and Guinea. The war made Portugal the object of international criticism from UN member states since it was one of the only countries at the time to not relinquish control of its colonies. Further, there were arms embargoes and punitive sanctions imposed on Portugal which not only made the government more unpopular, but added to the enormous financial burden of the war itself.. The pioneers of the revolution recognized that the Portuguese government was under pressured this, plus the fact that large percentage of the military was occupied overseas, set the stage for a seizure of power with relative ease. Since there would be little resistance from the depleted armed forces in Lisbon as well widespread public support, it was evident that victory was imminent.
The third key factor was the financial crisis 1974. Beginning with the Arab oil embargo of 1973, where the cost of a barrel rose from $3 to $12, Portugal faced financial strife much like the rest of the countries that relied of Arab oil. Since Portugal was already embroiled in the war in Africa, this balloting of oil prices took its toll on its economy. Further, since the majority if Portugal’s trading partners were in Europe and were also suffering from the oil embargo, trade suffered greatly and but an even heavier burden on the economy and subsequently the government which put in place the economic policies and continued a financially devastating war. The economy, however, was not as much of a factor of the Revolution as the loss of public confidence in the government as well as well as opposition from soldiers an civilians who were retuning from the African colonies at this time. These hundreds of thousands of people who had just repatriated hated the government for the hardship it made them endure during the was and naturally turned to the only legitimate opposition force- The Armed Forces Movement started by Carvalho and Maia.
Portugal currently has multi-party system and has been conducting democratic prime ministerial elections on a regular 4 year basis with an average voter turn out of 55% which rivals the US. Further, the public votes for member of the Assembly of the Republic which is a major part of the legislative branch. The influence of the public via the voting process is immense in Portugal because of the importance of these two elections in particular so in accordance with Schattschneider’s definition Portugal remains not only an active democracy but is likely to remain such because it is evident by voter turnouts that the majority of people in portugal support the democratic process by participating in it regularly. Portugal is a member of the EU and in order to become a member, it had to sign the Maastricht Treaty which binds Portugal to the economic standards of the EU. Since the terms include inflation rates, annual government deficits and debt that cannot be exceeded, it essentially forces Portugal to avoid circumstances which would make maintaining these standards harder. Transitioning from democracy to another form of government would be catastrophic for the Portuguese economy for a profusion of reasons. Firstly, Portugal’s major trading partners are all democratic and are EU member states, if Portugal were to get expelled from the EU because of economic or political reasons- which would be imminent during an entire governmental transition- or for becoming a dictatorship/ authoritarian regime it would not be able to maintain the economic status required to remain in the EU and would loose benefits of free trade, lack of tariffs and quotes as well as other factors which facilitate trade in Europe. Secondly, Portugal is still recovering from a an economic crisis is 2012 where the International Monetary Fund had to put together an austerity
program for Portugal, so because of this not only would Portugal be unable to afford straying from democracy, but it is heavily influenced by international bodies like the IMF, EU, UN and NATO who's members keep countries like Portugal in check.
In recent years there have been certain threats to the continuity of democracy in Portugal. After the IMF bailout there were protests against the austerity measures the government had put in place like the €4.7 billion cuts to public expenditure, including social security, education and healthcare. Though these protests well quelled, the anti0austerity sentiment remains and is coupled with resentment of Portugal’s membership of the EU among prominent social groups like the Communist party and its supporters as well as supporters of Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho, one of the key figures who brought about the Carnation Revolution. Carvalho feels that the EU has too much influence over Portugal and that it is detrimental to the sovereignty of the state. That said, these groups do not have the numbers, influence or means to threaten the status quo of the government and therefore democracy appears safeguarded.
In conclusion, Portugal transitioned to democracy in response to the desires of the public which were not being met and because there was a clear opportunity to seize power. In today;s day and age the government is supported by the majority of the population and there is’t any opportunity not opposition strong enough to threaten he government so democracy will remain the system in Portugal.