Some experts believe that the next major conflict in the world will be between the United States (US) and China. Because Carl von Clausewitz said that war is policy with other means, I suggest that the conflict between the US and China has already started. Sun Tzu said that the greatest victory is that which requires no battle. Although China is not shooting bullets at the US, it is waging unrestricted warfare against the US using the instruments of national power such as Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic (DIME) to achieve its goal of replacing the US as the top hegemon of the world.
China is effectively utilizing the diplomatic element of national power to challenge US hegemony. In the United Nations (UN) China teamed up with Russia to block an "automatic trigger" that would re-impose sanctions on Iran if they violate their nuclear agreement. Blocking this automatic trigger benefits China in several ways. First, China maintains the status and clout of its veto power. Secondly, vetoing the automatic triggering of sanctions benefits China as it is readying a commercial project to build a natural gas pipeline between Iran and Pakistan. Lastly and most importantly, China maintains the ability to impede America’s near-term or future diplomatic goals.
Another Chinese diplomatic triumph against US interests involves the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The purpose of the AIIB is to finance infrastructure and development projects across Asia. The Chinese-led AIIB is basically a rival to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which are led by the US, Europe, and Japan. Through the AIIB, China gains not only influence but also power for it will have veto power over the bank’s major decisions. In March 2015, the United Kingdom (UK), Germany, France, and Italy announced that they were joining the AIIB despite concerns from the Obama administration. China outmaneuvered the US and poached off key US allies to join an organization that weakens the influence of the World Bank and ADB. The US has a weaker position to fight for its interests in Asia.
Besides the diplomatic element of national power, China is heavily invested in using informational means to achieve its strategic goals. China wants to undermine the opponent’s mind before having to assault the body. China is basically using strategic psychological operations (PSYOP) to prepare the battlefield. Some of the informational means to advance their agenda is by funding Washington-based lobbying firms, Washington DC business groups, and policy research institutes.
To become a hegemon, China knew that it had to gain entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO). The WTO sets and enforces international trade policy and China had no influence in the organization. The problem was that since 1980, it was ineligible to join the WTO because it was only being granted normal trade relations status on a yearly basis. The Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989 did not help matters. The annual reviews on whether to renew China’s normal trade relations status were a thorn to China for they provided an easy forum for critics to attack China’s human rights record, environmental record, and stance towards Taiwan and Tibet. China’s objective was to gain entry into the WTO. In order to influence President Clinton and his administration to grant China permanent normal trade relations (PNTR), which would allow China’s entry into the WTO, China hired and funded Washington-based lobbying firms and business groups to advocate the benefits of granting China PNTR. Energized with the cash and a mission, those lobbyists and business groups were able to steer the Clinton administration to focus on the benefits of America doing business with the world’s most dynamic economy instead of the yearly debates on China’s human rights records and reminders of the 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre. China joined the WTO on December 11, 2001. China’s economy and its economic leverage against other nations has increased ever since.
China is obsessed about being perceived well internationally, most especially by the US. China’s funding of policy research institutes located in Washington DC such as the Brookings Institution and the Center for Strategic and International Studies is another weapon of their informational warfare to influence public opinion positively in their favor. "The think tanks have promoted China's interests in Washington by helping to shape the terms of America's national debate on China policy, and by greatly influencing perceptions of what subjects are legitimate to raise in this debate, and what subjects are out of bounds."
Another key component of national power is China’s military. At the moment, it is unable to match the technological and operational superiority of the US military. But China is developing asymmetrical weapons to counter America’s military superiority in the event that China and the US find themselves in a shooting war with each other. The recent public testing of Chinese weapons such as its anti-satellite weapon, "carrier-killer" anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), and supersonic anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) all have something in common. These weapons are designed to neutralize the strengths of the US military such as its satellites and naval aircraft carriers.
The Chinese rocket launches in 2007 and in 2013 were in reality tests of its new anti-satellite weapon. This weapon appears to be a kinetic interceptor that could reach out to 36,000 km above the earth. This kind of weapon system has the potential to reach all deep space regardless of whether they are in medium earth orbit, highly elliptical orbit, or geostationary orbit.
China tested its Dong Feng 21D ASBM against a carrier mockup during a war game in the Gobi desert in 2013. DF-21D is a land-based ASBM system. The speed of the ASBM missile as it drops down vertically is purported to be over Mach 10, which makes it extremely difficult for a carrier battle group to defend against. The same goes for the YJ-18 supersonic ASCM that was tested in 2014.
These weapons are all area-denial/anti-access weapons for use against America’s carrier battle groups. China desires to maintain its sovereignty over the Nansha Islands in the South China Sea by either preventing US forces from entering the region or by denying them freedom of operations. The ultimate objective of China is to push US forces out of what China regards historically as its own backyard.
Another way for China to achieve its goal of hegemony is by waging economic warfare against the US. In Zero-Sum World by Gideon Rachman, Timothy Geithner basically said that China caused the financial crisis of 2008 in the US. Geithner said that China purposely manipulated the value of its currency for its benefit. China refused to let the renminbi adjust freely on the world currency markets because an artificially depressed currency would bolster exports and protect domestic markets. This resulted in huge dollar surpluses for China. China recycled their dollar surpluses by purchasing American assets in the US. This further depressed US interest rates leading to even more borrowing and spending which eventually resulted in the collapse of the housing bubble. American and European workers lost their jobs as a result of Chinese goods being kept cheap by China’s currency manipulation.
Another economic power play move by China to increase its influence internationally was the launching of the New Development Bank (NDB) in Shanghai. The bank is backed by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS). The purpose of the NDB is to finance infrastructure projects in developing countries. The NDB is in essence a rival bank to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which are heavily influenced and controlled the US. Through the NDB, China gains not only influence but also power because it is the biggest monetary contributor for the NDB.
Conflict between the US and China has already started. China’s long-term grand goal is to replace the US as the world’s hegemon by the year 2049, which is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Becoming the world economic, military, and political leader would right the wrongs of a century of past humiliations from foreign nations. China is using strategy from Sun Tzu and DIME to achieve its objectives. The strategy entails cooperation with the US when necessary while also covertly sabotaging US foreign policy interests. China has successfully used subterfuge and manipulation of American policymakers to affect US policy, which has enabled China’s steady rise in power. China has steadily risen in diplomatic importance, international stature, military strength, and economic power by using DIME. If China’s strategists have planned it right, then they may replace the US as the number superpower without having to fire a shot. Sun Tzu would be proud.