SYRIAN SITUATION: In comparism to the Afghanistan and Libyan crisis and why the united nations has failed to act/interfere.
Since the Syrian war started in 2011, nearly a quarter million people have perished and thousands forced out of their homes thereby creating the worst refugee crisis ever seen in the past quarter century . The Syrian civil war and crisis is still on going and began in early spring 2011 within the context Arab spring protest against president Bashar al- Assad’s government whose forces responded with violent crackdowns and force and thus, the protest grew into an armed rebellion after months of military siege . when the crisis started, the Syrian government relied on her armed forces but has used local protection made of volunteers since 2014 known as National Defence Force. The Syrian government received support from Russia, Iran and Iraq, on the 30th of September, 2015, Russia started air campaign on the request of the Syrian government which led to the proxy war between America and Russia and led to the situation to be termed proto world war with nearly a dozen countries embroiled in two overlapping crisis. It is important to state at this point that international organizations have accused the Syrian government and the other forces of severe human rights violations with mass massacres, all leading to mass displacement of population . Human Right situation in Syria has been the subject of criticism from international organizations. The country for many years banned the gathering of more than five (5) people and allowing security forces to arrest and detain violatiors of the law. Bashar al-Asaad is so believed to have been unsuccessful in implementing democratic change with a human Right watch of 2010 stating clearly that he failed to substantially improve the standard of human rights since taking power. Freedom of Expression, Association and Assembly were strictly controlled by Syria even before the crisis. The authorities harass, Imprison and intimidate activists and other critics of government. Women are discriminated against and ethnic minorities widely marginalized.
The protests started on the 15th of March 2011, protesters marched in Damascus, demanding democratic reforms and release of political prisoners. The security forces retaliated with sporadic shooting, injuring many and arrested many as well. The protests according to reports was triggered by the arrest of a boy and his friends for writing the graffiti, the graffiti was used to send messages underlying the social and political misrule of the government of Bashar a-Asaad. Despite all the messages sent by the protesters, all Assad could say in an address was that protesters were being pushed by “foreign conspirators” pushing Israeli propaganda for the protests ” the protesters initially demanded for release of political detainees and political reforms and gave the government an ultimatum, the focus shifted from making demands to the call for the removal of the Bashar Al- Asaad regime with this spreading to over twenty cities. On the 25th of April, the Syrian Army started series of large scale deadly military attacks on towns using tanks, infantry carriers and artillery leading to mass and large number of deaths of civilians and led to the death of over 1,000 civilians and arrest of many students, liberal activists and human rights advocates . On the 29th of July 2011, seven officers of the army defected to form an alliance with the aim of bringing the Bashar Al Asaad government to dust. On the 31st of July, a nationwide crackdown nicknamed the “Ramadan Massacre” resulted in the death of at least 142 people and hundreds injured. It is important to state that the rebels received support from Turkey and operates its command and headquarters from Turkey. According to rebels, the Syrian government released imprisoned islamist militants and armed them up to fight the rebels. November and December 2011 saw increasing rebels attacks as opposition forces grew in large numbers and launched massive air raids on an air force intelligence complex in Damascus and on the 15th of December, ambushed military base killing 27 soldiers but suffered a great loss when 72 members were killed. French and British special forces trainers are also rendering assistance to the Syrian rebels. January 2012, Asaad began using large scale artillery operations against the insurgency, this destroyed many civilian homes . The army intensified usage of air raids and tanks with both the army and the rebels claiming victory over a territory and counter claiming. By the end of April 2013, the estimated death toll had reached 10,000 acting on the United Nations-Arab league Joint special representative for Syria, Kofi Annan tried a peace plan for ceasefire but even as negotiations were ongoing, the Syrian armed force attacked a number of towns and villages and killed hundreds of people and detention of children even continued, this time in immeasurable quantity. The ceasefire agreed upon was a failure with both sides killing and maiming innocent civilians. This led Annan to officially withdraw from Syria and the kangaroo peace move by the United nations aborted.
After the failure of the ceasefire, killings continued with 108 deaths recorded at the Houla massacre and 78 civilians were reportedly killed in the AL- Qubeir massacre. Not until the 12th June 2012, the UN has quietly looked and apart from the Annan move, only said that and proclaimed that “Syria is in a state of civil war ” by Mid- July 2012, about 16, people have been reportedly killed and the war had spread into the capital of Syria. Later, Defence minister, AL- Saad’s brother-in-law were killed in a suicide bomb attack in Damascus. The Syrian intelligence chief, Hisham Ikhtiyar, who got madly injured in the suicide bomb attack later died and a group of the rebel forces claimed responsibility for the attack. Later an UN observer said that Assad has started using fight jets on his people. On the 6th of September 2012, about 21 Kurdish activists were killed by the Army loyal to Asaad. On the 18th of November, rebels took control of base 46 in the Aleppo Government, which happens to be one of the Syrian army’s largest bases about 300 Syrian troops were killed in the process and about 60 captured alive. Later a car bomb exploded in Damascus war the Baath Syrian Regional Branch headquarters, killing at least 53 civilians . later, the Asaad army bombed a mosque where civilian protesters were praying and killed as many as 41 persons. It was reported that in reclaiming coastal towns of Bayda, Baniyas, over 100 people were killed by the Syrian Army mostly children and harmless women. On the 10th June, pro-government fighters attacked a nearby rebel group and killed four rebels .
In trying to capture the Salma Region, according to a Human Rights watch, about 190 civilians were killed including at least 67 being executed. Another 200 civilians primarily women and children were held hostage . ISIS later joined in the crisis making it messier and bloodier.
We can go on and on talking about this war and how lives have been lost, properties worth billions of dollars are destroyed day by day and yet the international peace umbrella and its most powerful council have looked unconcerned and if concerned, I think not too concerned, the UN has only made comments only when quizzed and made promises upon promises.
REASONS FOR NOT INTERFERING IN THE SYRIAN CRISIS
As it stands today, Syria continues to grind with Bashir Al-Asaad in power with the security forces shifting focus to ISIS and other Islamic extremists groups. It’s been four years of crisis and war in Syria, with large callas for the intervention of the United Nations and NATO the United Nations and NATO remained hesitant to interfere despite parallel conditions similar to that of Libya, infact, that of Syria as it stands today is over a thousand percent worse off than that of Libya. Despite this, NATO continued to hold back despite the conflict or war over four years and again despite the August 21st 2014 move agent attack on civilians in Ghurtta attributed by the United states of America, United kingdom and France to the Assad government, an event previously identified as a “redline” by president Obama that would trigger military action. Despite vivid evidence that the Asaad government crossed the line, NATO stayed out of Syria.
Today, there are many factors contributing to NATO’s decision against intervening in the Syria crisis. Despite using the liberal based (values) rhetoric and human rights justifications for the invasion of Libya, the Syrian situation elicited a different response. Domestic politics in individual NATO states ran against it. While there was no justification for invading Afghanistan and similarities ( Infact the Syrian situation is worse off that of Libya) with Libya, excuses based on being an ally with Asaad has taken over reasonability of the United Nations and NATO. The Syrian military was well and better trained, equipped, sophisticated and committed to Asaad than the Libyan military Gaddafi. This is a very weak excuse as it is well known that many members of the army in Syria has defected to support the rebels and even fight against Asaad and if the army is good, why have they failed to exert peace in about four years of the unrest. Again, NATO said that the influx into Syria of Islamic extremists fighters on the rebel side restrained it from interfering. This is also laughable and weak, Afghanistan was invaded simply because they wanted Taliban destroyed, simply because, Al- Qaeda was in Afghanistan and despite the fact that, leading Al –Qaeda a fighters are not Afghan, yet they invaded Afghanistan. It is important to point out that the largest contributing factor was that international resistance to a NATO invasion of Syria compared to that Libya is due to the greater strength of international, regional and internal Allies of the Assad regime. Bashar Asaad is a friend to many powerful forces in the United Nations and within the Security Council. Compared to Gaddafi who called himself an “ International leader, the Dean of Arab rulers, the/ Kings of kings of Africa, an Imam of Muslims” etc. Gaddafi won’t stop looking for enemies, had no powerful friends and an enemy of the United Nations. NATO faced no opposition whatsoever in the intervention against Gaddafi and NATO received encouragement to act by Arab league and Gaddafi’s lack of domestic and international support. The dearth of opposition and lack of allies meant that nothing stood in the way of NATO invasion of Libya. Gaddafi only has strength at home,. He was internationally naked. It is important to state that NATO had less at stake in Syria than its opponents and Asaad remaining in power did not greatly harm NATO interests, even if it did no help them. Despite the bad company Assad was keeping, he at least had a steady hand on Syria. Asaad had a strong base at home and also forged international and regional alliances.
Syria presented a different case for NATO. The same liberal arguments used in Libya were being used to justify action in Syria however argued by Eben Cutzee, from a structural Realist perspective, supporting liberal democracy and freedom during the Arab spring had been harmful to security interests and especially NATO’s as it had already led to gains for militant Islamism in the region it has led to the rise of Muslim brotherhood in countries like Egypt, Islamist violence against us Targets in Libya and Islamic militants ties with Al-Qaeda. None of these presents a big threat to NATO. What NATO did was to create a space for and enabled ISIS to build a base and increase their influence in the region and also across the world- something which NATO claims does not harm security and interests. That led to the baseless and ill political move from getting rid of Asaad to defeating ISIS. Again, it has been pushed that the United Nations is not a democratic global organization and it is not a representation of world citizens.