THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOUTH AFRICA
BY SANELE SHANDU
STUDENT NUMBER: 216026573
ENVS120
Introduction
For one to understand this topic, definitions of the topic have to be discussed so that one can show the relationship between climate change towards South African agriculture. Climate is defined as the prevailing weather conditions of a region, temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloudiness, and winds, throughout the year, averaged over a series of years. Agriculture is then defined as the production of crops, livestock, or poultry. Climate affects agriculture through rainfall, temperature, and other conditions. This is because some plants need specific conditions to grow, for example tomatoes don’t grow very well in cold areas, and certain plants need shade half the day in order to complete a perfect cycle of photosynthesis, other plants need really wet soil, as water will activate the germination cycle and it dissolve nutrients so that the plant roots may consume them, some cattle are also adapted to certain climates to reproduce and be of good quality. climate restricts the kind of agriculture that can take place in a given area for example our grapes are mostly harvested in Cape town, and most of our live stock in the interior of South African in areas such as Johannesburg and Pretoria. The other side that will be discussed in this essay is the effect agriculture has on climate. Agriculture such as cutting timber effects the amount of rainfall across the world and releases carbon in to the air, because trees assist in the hydrological cycle and store carbon. This effect is like planting the same crop in one field over and over again will deplete it of almost all nutrients, which will affect how the ground absorbs water, returns it to the cycle. Certain forms of agriculture also release carbon in to the atmosphere, which adds up over time, a perfect example would be the agricultural farming of livestock, livestock sector accounts for 9 percent of all carbon dioxide emissions there affect the rate at which soil erodes or builds up in a given area. In the following paragraph we will discuss the different types of climate changes that occur in South Africa.
CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOUTH AFRICA
As we know that climate change poses a great threat on South African agriculture, and in relation all life that survives on this agriculture. Therefore, it is important to know that the climate does not only affect the agriculture but the productivity of food for the survival of mankind, in relation the economic standing of south Africa as some of these products are exported to other countries. As we that global warming and climate change are becoming more and more of a reality, South Africa is also experiencing a gradual, yet steady, change in climate due to this effect. Southern African temperatures have also risen significantly over the last 60 years of the recorded by researchers, and are predicted to continue this rising trend for years to come, with a rise in temperature of 1-2°C expected in coastal regions, and 3-4°C expected in interior regions by 2050. An increase of 3-4°C in coastal regions is predicted and 6-7°C in interior regions is predicted by 2100. Rainfall patterns are also shifting, although this is a little more variable and unpredictable, but the shifting of the rainfall in South Africa has a huge effect on agriculture as we know that south Africa has a low rainfall, with an average annual rainfall of about 464 mm, compared to a world average of about 860 mm. This already shows that as a country we have minimum amount of water to support all kinds of activity, the largest of these being the agriculture sector, and the shifting patterns makes it difficult to do so. In the next paragraph we will discuss the impacts on South African agriculture in different provinces as they will all have different temperatures and different agricultural adaptations.
IMPACTS ON SOUTH AFRICAN AGRICULTURE DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
In South Africa, the largest decrease in the total crop area is yet to be experienced due to the vast climate changes, which are characterized by the increase in temperature and very dry conditions in some areas that will make crop production not as effective, thus decreasing productivity and in relation posing a huge threat to food security. Scientists have recorded that the total area of South African agricultural sector is expected to decrease by more than five percent and total production by more than ten percent. Where areas with rain and with irrigated areas are estimated to decrease by two and eighteen percent. Now one can see that the decrease in total area in Southern African agriculture and production is smaller, and is going to continue to decrease due to the climate changes taking place, up to four percent for area and seven percent for production. Although higher levels of precipitation in the runs promote rain farming and shift production from irrigated to rain farms, total agricultural production is adversely affected. South Africa is known as a semi- arid region containing different climate adaptations for different agricultural practices, these include the northern west sub-humid and wet areas in the eastern coastal regions. Areas that are drier, will result in the total production decrease for most crops as the temperature is increasing and as the temperature increases the crops produce decrease, as most plants cannot survive at very high temperatures. Wheat and other coarse grains, maize and sorghum can undergo some of these conditions as they are adapted to such conditions, for example we find these agricultural activities such as maize production which is produced mainly in North West province, the Free State, the Mpumalanga Highveld and the KwaZulu-Natal Midlands. Under the wet and warmer climate conditions sugar cane and cereal production also increase, but how will this be possible as the climate temperature increases. The effect of this increasing of temperature in these areas will result in a higher rate of evaporation, in relation this will result in drier soils and these soils will not be able to support these agricultural activities.
Other climate impacts also include high temperatures with humidity conditions and the lack of water that cause heat stress in animals, resulting in the death of many livestock. This negatively affects animal production as food production in terms of food security in South African, growth is slowed down. Although the situation is not always the same with some livestock as science has modified their genes so that they adapt to certain changes.in the next paragraph we will discuss the economic effect that these climate changes will cause in terms of the agricultural sector not preforming as it should.
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC AFFECTS THESE CLIMATE CHANGES CAUSE
Agriculture as a percentage of GDP has decreased over past four decades in South Africa, currently contributing around two percent. With climate changes affecting the production of crop, and livestock to export in exchange for money in other countries. Note that the decreasing of the percentage that contributes to the South African GDP, in elation this will also affect the number of job opportunities for the people in South Africa. Despite the percentage contribution decreasing the agricultural economy is still responsible for most of employment. For example, farming contributes a huge amount to permanent and temporary jobs to people in South Africa, because the level of education is also low and some people can only perform such skills to provide a living for themselves and their families. Therefore, it’s very important to get scientists and researchers to find ways to improve the agricultural sector so that crops and livestock and other form of agriculture is resistance to the climate change. Although the department plans to spend over R7 billion to help small farming sectors to contribute to the agricultural sector, and for scientists to develop genetically modified crops to improve nutrition and to withstand the climate change conditions South Africa is currently facing, which we are currently failing to withstand. In the next paragraph an argument will be discussed on how the agricultural sector also causes climate to change.
HOW AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AFFECT THE CLIMATE?
In an essay it is very important to look at all possible scenarios that can happen, we know that climate has an effect on agriculture, but is it possible that agriculture in South Africa affects the climate too? The answer is yes and it does have a contribution in the climate change. In industrial agriculture we know that the practice currently employed by the majority of the developed world including South Africa, but this practice has a huge and negative impact on global warming, as it results in the emission of carbon dioxide which is a green house gas. Another example of agricultural activities that affect climate in South Africa is deforestation which results in surface warming, with the exception being conversion to agriculture. It should also result in carbon dioxide increase as forests are responsible for the conversion of carbon dioxide to oxygen, and the high content of carbon dioxide will result in high temperatures.
Conclusion
Climate change in South Africa will continue to change unless certain changes on the agricultural sector are modified. As we can see there are many affects towards agriculture as the climate changes, these effects not only affect the sector itself but also all the people of South Africa who benefit from it. These people include the people who benefit economically from selling their agricultural products and private agricultural sectors where people practice agriculture to support their families. A good solution for this is to encourage people to start their own agricultural practices so that we can avoid famine situations when food security becomes at risk. Another solution is to encourage the keeping of natural forests, natural water catchments and inforce laws that will make agricultural companies to make space for recreational areas and natural vegetation so that monoculture is avoided.