The worldwide effort to substitute the use of fossil fuels for renewable sources of energy hasn’t been a game changer as of yet. Luckily we have technology. Renown futurist Ray Kurzweil has already predicted that our problem is closer to being solved than you think. During a talk earlier this year, he explained how 12 years from now solar power will provide all the energy the world consumes. As of 2016 only 2% of the worldwide energy consumption is solar energy. Kurzweil expanded on his claim by noting that solar energy consumption has doubled every two years for over 25 years. 0.5% in 2012, 1% in 2014 and now 2%. So if this trend continues, in 2028 100% of the energy we use will come from the sun. He compared this trend to the exponential growth the internet had, which he accurately predicted. This comparison is initially encouraging because what primarily drives the expansion of the solar power industry, like the internet, is the soaring evolution of technology. Advancements in nanotechnology make solar panels more efficient and affordable. Kurzweil specifically confirmed during an interview that solar nanotechnology is exponentially growing. As the cost of using solar energy goes down, it can begin to take ground in the energy market and become an economic competitor.
All that being said, it would be quite a process to overhaul global energy consumption in just 12 years. There are numerous factors that have to be taken into consideration. Solar energy depends on the sun, and unfortunately we can’t control the weather. As you know, there is a significant variance of solar radiation across the globe. (highlighted by this map) In areas where there is less solar radiation, more panels would be needed to suffice for the lack of sunlight. Requiring more panels would raise the initial cost of becoming solar dependent. To take it further, the director of the IEA’s (International Energy Agency) renewable energy unit said during an interview that there will be a population flow towards the sunnier areas in the world. He explained that most global economic activity will shift there since solar power will become a feasible source of energy. If solar energy does become cheaper than any other alternative, the heavy energy consuming industrial world will slowly begin to adapt to take advantage of red hot locations.
Up until now, the growth of solar power has cut into the energy market in convenient rural regions. On the other hand, it gets a bit more complex when we talk about densely populated areas with low solar radiation. Remember, Kurzweil predicted 100% solar dependence in 12 years. Take for example London or New York City. Solar panels need to be angled towards the sun to be efficient, which would be impossible to achieve in an impenetrable array of buildings. I know what you’re thinking, but the space on the roof of a tall building is certainly not enough to power itself completely. Massive areas of surrounding land would be needed to build adequate solar power plants. They would also need to take over the power plants already in place in order to be able to use the transmission lines, building new ones would be a nightmare. Since solar power plants require much more space to generate power, it would be a challenge to merge infrastructures. The SEIA (Solar Energy Industries Association) published an article to point out some roadblocks in the future expansion of solar power. The SEIA said that in order for renewable goals to be reached, there is a lot of technical planning to be done. The article also noted that there is no conversation between general transmission planning and solar developers. They insist that the financial and commercial realities of the solar power project are not being realized.
It’s easy to buy a solar panel in the countryside and power your house, but if Kurzweil expects total solar power dependency, that means everything. Don’t get me wrong, I recognize that the exponential trend has the potential to satisfy his predictions. But unlike the internet, solar power technology requires physical, political and financial efforts that take time. A month ago the IEA published an article that explained the key forces that dictate the rate of growth for solar power. They conducted an analysis that considered the technical problems arising from the expansion of solar energy. The IEA explains that it is a challenge to maintain a steady market integration with such an unstable source of energy supply. They add that solar power has to be brought into the world alongside supportive innovations such as advanced power storage and solar energy forecasting. For the solar power project to move forward, it has to be given the importance of the future electricity system. Last but not least, the IEA acknowledges that the most important players are governments. The rate at which international solar plan acts are fulfilled, will dictate solar power integration into the world.
Let’s assume utopia for a second. I don’t even want to consider transportation. Without taking into account all these obstacles, Kurzweil’s prediction should be simply accurate. The system openly reinforces itself. As solar nanotechnology improves exponentially, the efficiency of the product improves. As the efficiency improves, affordability increases. As affordability goes up, worldwide usage increases. As usage increases, government funding and popularity increase. As funding increases, solar nanotechnology increases. I hope it would be that simple. When we add delays to the system, its overall reinforcing growth is unchanged but time becomes a factor. The exponential trend survives, but it will smooth out exponentially as it keeps increasing. I will explain what I mean in a second. There is a big planning delay between affordability and usage, and the planning itself is delayed by government policies. After usage and before government funding, there should be an information delay where the government gets incentivized by the results. Right after that there’s another delay as the government allocates money, and each time they have to raise more. Before technology improves, there is a material delay as researchers work on the subject, which then has to be transformed into products. After confirming higher efficiency, there is a human information delay before the affordability increases. The exponential growth is proportional to the delays. In other words, the more it grows the longer the delays are.
Imagine going from half the earth depending on solar power to 100% in 2 years. That’s when solar power has to integrate into the energy market’s most reluctant sector. Throughout the growth, it is likely that accidental adversaries arise. Government can have policy controversies with solar developers. Either one of those can encounter an infuriated energy titan as they’re being dethroned. Due to all this, there will be a constantly increasing limit to growth. The technological improvements are the key element here. They create the niche that the solar power project fills up. If the tech improvements weren’t held back by delays, I have no doubt that in 2028 we would have the capacity to approach being solar dependent. But in reality this is a radical change for humanity, so you expect conflicts to rise. Since solar power is currently at 2%, it hasn’t encountered any major obstacles yet; technology is free to fly. I agree with Kurzweil in that solar power is the most promising solution, but I don’t think we are going to get there that smoothly.