Abstract:
This essay analyzes and infers conclusions on what is currently happening between the United States and North Korea. It relates both conflict and capitulation views, and it also analyzes the concerning subject of what would be the worldwide consequences of a war between the United States and North Korea. After analyzing the historical situation and experts' points of view, the conclusion is that the world is heading to a dramatic situation from which an easy solution is not expected. However, I think it is time to stop and think about the past, to change the present so that we can preserve the future.
Introduction:
A great general concern has been haunting people all over the world regarding the probability of another world war happens. This essay tries to explain why this concern is real and even more disturbing by the fact that both North Korea and United States of America are not willing to surrender. Meanwhile, I will also address the contrast between conflict and capitulation, and I will focus on the signs that make me believe that it is possible an agreement between both countries.
A BRIEFLY EXPLICATION ABOUT HOW THIS CONFLICT STARTS
Although the climate between the United States and North Korea has heated in recent times, due to the takeover of Donald Trump, the tension between these two countries is no longer from now. It all began precisely after World War II, when Korea split in two. It was by this time that North Korea attacked South Korea (Korea War), and it was also from this point on that the United States and North Korea become enemies, since the United States came in support of South Korea. In the following decades, the relationship between them got worst due to some frictions, as the capture of a spy ship and the overthrow of an American reconnaissance aircraft by the Asians.
ALLIANCES
North Korea is a state that has a vision of international relations: it has no diplomatic or economic relations with almost in the other state and seeks to increase its military power as a means of securing its own security in the system in which it is threatened by other States, especially by the USA. However, there are still some States with which North Korea has alliances: China, whose relationship is vital when analyzing geopolitical issues in East Asia, and Russia. China is clearly the strongest ally of the North Korean government since it is economically dependent on China. Beijing is the most important trading partner and is not only the main food supplier to North Koreans, but also the supplier of armament and of the such important electric power, so if China and its prescient Xi Jinping wanted, they easily can put their neighbors’ economy "on its knees". But why such interest of China in North Korea? Although unexpected, the small communist country is a "buffer" state on the most fragile point of China's border, as it prevents China from having a border with a capitalist country and United States ally, South Korea. At the same time, in the eyes of the United States, only China can deal with Kim Jung-un's nuclear obsessions, and while North Korea exists, the United States will need China to control the danger and avoid conflict. However, in recent times, the relationship between China and North Korea has been getting more and more cold, and even China's government has already shown signs of some impatience with North Korea and its nuclear game, and has condemned their recent nuclear test. In addition, China has also begun to take some measures, in a limited way, to pressure neighbors to "behave themselves".
In my opinion, I do not think North Korea has enough power alone to start a war with the United States, but what will be the position of China? Will China come to help North Korea? What are the effects for North Korea if it does not have the economic support of China? These are some questions that maybe the answers can explain and try to anticipate the future.
Firstly, China has made it known that if North Korea is the first to trigger a conflict with the United States, they will remain neutral. However, if the United States are the first to attack, China will respond. Kim Jung-un is not a silly person and he perfectly knows that if he loses China's economic support, he is losing both the support of the country from where most of his imports come and where most of his exports go.
On the other hand, and alongside of the United States, are South Korea and Japan that are already preparing their military forces for a possible attack from North Korea. The United States have a strong alliance with South Korea which is the basis for ensuring peace on the Korean Peninsula and also to establish security and economic development against the constant provocations of North Korea and the risk of war.
IS THERE ANY REASON TO FEAR WAR?
In my opinion no. For many threats that both Donald Trump and Kim Jung-un can make, the truth is that nobody wants a war on the Korean Peninsula, and for me that is the most important point. On the one hand, Kim Jong-un is not a "suicide" person, and he knows perfectly well that any attack on the United States or on its allies would quickly evolve into a major war. On the other hand, the United States know that an attack on North Korea could force their regime to respond by attacking its allies (South Korea and Japan), and this could result in thousands of deaths, including many American militaries.
Donald Trump may have threatened North Korea with unusual language for an American president, but that does not mean anything. In addition, after North Korea's intercontinental missile tests, the United States tried to use a different strategy: it pressured Pyongyang through United Nations Security Council sanctions. These sanctions are a power that States can and should use in international relations, such as preventing exports, cutting economic relations, raising prices, etc. And it is on these economic sanctions that I think United States and the other international communities should focus on, as they are a more viable option because they are not war declarations and clearly show that North Korean military escalation is not acceptable.
DIPLOMACY OR CONFLICT?
The statement "… there is a lot of policy-space between conflict and capitulation on the Korean Peninsula" could not be more correct. And the solution to all of this is, certainly, diplomacy. Of all the possible diplomatic solutions that are listed in the article "Trump needs a diplomatic surge for North Korea", for me the one that can really make a greater contribution is the one that involves China. In my opinion, an agreement between the United States and China to try to reunify the Korean Peninsula may be the most viable solution to overcome a tension that is increasingly growing. Although China is becoming more and more impatient with North Korea's recent actions, it is not likely to cut off the relations with them, at least until the United States acts as a military force allied to Japan and South Korea. Having said that, it is easy to see that China is in a central position and has the power to calm down this "nuclear war".
Another solution that certainly is "between conflict and capitulation" is silence. Silence and inaction can also be seen as a strategy, because although it is not certain that North Korea stops here, it is also not certain that it will advance, so perhaps the best solution is to ignore the situation.
IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL BUSINESS
Although I think that everything can be solved by using politics, what would be the consequences if the war broke out? In addition to a catastrophic number of deaths, a conflict between North Korea and the United States would also lead to dramatic financial consequences. The main affected would be the Korean Peninsula, more specifically South Korea, and Japan. Together they represent about 10% of the world economy and it is where many multinational companies, such as Samsung Electronics and major automobile brands (Hyundai, Toyota, Honda, etc.), have their headquarters. The repercussions of a war on the Korean Peninsula would cause damage not only in the region but also worldwide, as it would lead to an abrupt decline in business activity, and at the same time the world financial markets would also suffer a tremendous short-term shock, which, according to Rajiv Biswas, "… it would take more than a decade to rebuild …".
Conclusion
All in all, coming to the fundamental point: are we seeing the collapse of another nuclear war? No. I sincerely think that a deal can be reached due to the reasons I already presented before, and yes, for me, China is the main key to the resolution to all of this. But it is not the only one. The increasing of sanctions, the trade embargo and silence are also some strategies that I think the United States and the international community should think about. I totally agree with the United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, when he says: "The solution must be political. The potential consequences of military action are too frightening. " However, time continues to pass, so the United States and the international community must act as soon as possible, before it is too late.