An old Chinese adage in the Book of Odes says ‘We get up at sunrise, at sunset we rest. We dig wells and drink. We till the fields and eat. What is the might of the emperor to us?’ This saying reflects the mentality of the Chinese population throughout the years, especially during the Chinese empire when peasants were working in fields days and nights. And it is even true today, as China has become a truly important state. According to Clark Golder Goler, a state is ‘an entity that relies on coercion and the threat of force to rule in a given territory’. In Jonathan Fenby’s China Today, How it got there, and where it is heading. Tiger head Snake tails China is considered being a strong rising state. But what exactly is state capacity and what are the characteristics of a strong state? According to Tilly 2009 ‘State capacity means the extent to which interventions of state agents win existing non-state resources, activities, and interpersonal connections alter existing distributions of those resources, activities, and interpersonal connections, as well as relations among those distributions’. At the beginning of the book, China has just emerged from a Civil War and the People’s Republic wants to develop China. Nowadays, China is one of the most important states in the world with rich resources and a fast-growing economy. However, China faces challenges that need to be dealt with to assure the country’s progression. These are political challenges, resources challenges, and economic challenges.
It is important to focus on China’s resources and activities and their evolution to understand the consequences of China’s interventions.
Firstly, I will focus on China’s strength over time and how its evolution has influenced the distributions of resources. Secondly, it is important to highlight the comparison of China to a regional peer country that is Japan and another high state capacity that is the US. Thirdly, I will discuss China’s weaknesses and challenges towards an uncertain future.
First of all, I will start by focusing on China’s strength over time and how its evolution influenced the distributions of resources, that is state capacity of China. In 1949, the People’s Republic of China emerged and was allied with the USSR. Mao Zedong installed a true totalitarian and communist regime where lands were the state’s property and the economy was planned. Political opponents were punished. The purpose of the Big Leap forward from 1958 until early 1961, a large-scale economic reform and a social project were to enhance the economic development and the technical one through the use of local resources to develop both industry and agriculture such as collectivization, agriculture, and group work. For instance, at the end of 1958 750 000 agricultural cooperatives were regrouped into 23 500 communes. It resulted in 45 million deaths caused by starvation and the big famine that occurred in China. The consequences of these economies and planifications both from the totalitarian regime and the Big Leap Forward were terrible for the people of China but also for its economy in general.For instance, 10% of the population died during summer 1956. During the Cultural Revolution that took place from 1966 until 1976, millions of people were persecuted, humiliated, imprisoned and tortured. Furthermore, the educational system in China suffered the most as universities and schools were closed, teachers and cadres were persecuted. The consequences of the Cultural Revolution resulted in a high illiteracy rate, especially in Zhanjiang where it was at 41% 20 years after the revolution. Therefore, the period from 1949 until 1978 is characterized by a weak distribution of resources from the state to the population. From 1978, it changed. And this change is linked to Deng Xiaoping’s market reform when China adopted a capitalist economy. China has nowadays the world’s largest population and is a very rich country in terms of territory, as it owns the world’s largest territory and in terms of goods and services. China has the world’s second-biggest economy and a fast growth. It is also the biggest manufacturer and the world’s first exporter and second’s importer. It means that China possesses loads of resources and buying power to satisfy the needs of its population. For instance, according to THST, in 2002 China had the biggest automobile market with 2 million cars sold in 2000. Furthermore, its nuclear power is expected to grow from 13% to 70% by 2020, also according to THTS. Moreover, as Fenby puts it, some small cities have seen their GDP increase, such as Lishui that multiplied its GDP by 25 since 1978 developing everything from toys to soap. In addition to that, China has the biggest military capacity in terms of men as China counted 2,843 million soldiers in 2015 according to the World Bank Databank.
China’s strength has evolved over time and its evolution influenced the distributions of resources and the conditions of the population. However, China is today considered a strong state. How is state capacity measured?
Second of all, I will present a relevant measure to explain what state capacity is and use it compare both China and Japan, as it is a regional peer country and then China and the US, as they both are high capacity countries. Because of Clark Golder Goler’s definition of a state, it might be relevant to think that the state’s strength depends on its actual capacity to use its force. Therefore, I can argue that the measures of military capacity in terms of soldiers or expenditure and GDP are a good measure of state capacity. According to the World Bank Databank, as said before, China’s armed personal forces amount to 2,843,000 people and its expenditure was 1,923% of China’s GDP in 2016. If we consider the measures of military capacity to determine a state capacity, then China has a high state capacity. Furthermore, a state has to intervene in the distributions of resources and activities. This distribution is linked to the number of resources, activities and interpersonal connections owned by the state itself. That is why the GDP is a good measure to define state capacity and according to the World Bank of Databank, China’s GDP amounted to 11,199 trillion$ in 2016. On that measure, we can argue that China has a high capacity. Furthermore, it is important to take into account the safety and security of one’s country when speaking about state capacity. The Fragile State index is a measure regrouping 12 indicators in terms of social, economy, and policy and is a way of assessing a state’s vulnerability. Each indicator is scored on a scale from 0 to 10, 0 being the lowest intensity. The Fragile State Index of China is at 74,7, which means that China is in ‘warning’ and its State Fragility Index in 2016 was 6. If we take into account these measures, then China has an unequal state capacity. If I look at China in comparison to Japan, it occurs that both these countries want to impose as the regional leader. Japan’s military expenditure was 0,935% of the GDP in 2016 and Japan’s armed forces amounted to 259,800 in 2015. Furthermore, Japan’s GDP was 4,939 trillion$ in 2016 and its FSI is 37,4. On these measures, Japan is a more stable country than China in terms of peace, safety and security but China has a higher state capacity in terms of distributions of resources and protection of the population. I chose to compare China to Japan because they are both on the run to become the regional leader and establish their legitimacy alongside their populations and the world. That is why their trade exchange have intensified throughout the years. In addition to that, I decided to compare China with the United States as it is a high capacity country. Its military expenditure was 3,291% of the GDP in 2016 and the US’ armed forces amounted to 1,347,300 in 2015. Its GDP is 18,569 trillion$ and its FSI is 35,6. It means that the United State has a high state capacity according to the quantitative measures. Both China and the US are economical giants but the US is still he biggest country in terms of distribution of resources.
Indeed, China may be a rich and important country with a high state capacity with the possibility to satisfy its population’s needs and be compared to two very powerful countries, China is also facing difficulties.
Third of all, I will now discuss China’s weaknesses and challenges that need to be taken into account to secure China’s future and the well-being of its population.