Many reasons may explain why democracy is not possible in the Middle East. A proper, universal definition of democracy is a starting point for this discussion. Democracy is defined as a system of governance in which rulers are held accountable for their actions and that a society can choose and replace rulers through open, free, and fair elections (Elsayed 2015). Elsayed (2015) states that the reasons behind the deterrence of democracy are as followed: religious factors cultural and societal factors, military interference, socio-economic factors, and international interference. Throughout this paper, we will look at each of these reasons listed by Elsayed to conclude as to why the Middle East is not ready for a western-style democracy.
It is difficult for countries who have long experienced autocratic rule to make a transition to democracy fully. This issue is not unique to the Middle East. Introducing a new form of government to a country that does not have a history of democratic rule can be challenging. Western powers must understand that this process can be slow and challenging. Steps toward expanding freedom in the region and individual nations are steps toward broadening democracy. (Cambanis, 2014) One possible measure towards promoting democracy in the area is a theory called “voluntarism”. According to Thanassis Cambanis, this theory is based on the idea that “individual actions can change the course of nations, and democracy can be nurtured by giving the right skills to promising leaders and activists”. (Cambanis, 2014) Much of this nurturing comes in the form of foreign aid that assists governments with educating future leaders. It is believed that even if this does not lead directly to democracy, it helps to promote greater freedoms within the individual nation, and possibly the region. (Cambanis, 2014) Moreover, western nations have also created democracy-promoting organizations such as the National Endowment for Democracy and the International Foundation for Electoral Systems to directly assist in spreading more democratic governances. These organizations assist nations in creating fair elections and help form and teach political parties. (Cambanis, 2014)
Another idea that could assist democracies in taking root in the region is known as the “modernization theory”. This theory suggests that democracy can only be achieved once nations enhance their economies, increase their literacy levels, and improve their per-capita GDP. As a nation’s economy becomes more successful, it allows for an increased possibility of the government, its institutions, its laws, and its systems to begin to succeed as well. Although wealth is not always a factor in determining democratic success, it is a factor that helps it to last. The Middle East’s limited wealth and development is a primary factor keeping the region from being able to maintain a democracy. (Cambanis, 2014) Western nations could assist the Middle East by developing a capitalist economy not reliant on the oil market through the implementation of developmental programs designed to teach leaders the basics of capitalism.
Education could significantly enhance a nation’s understanding and ability to maintain democratic governance in the region. Many countries in the Middle East have insufficient education standards, especially for women. Their education systems are often male-dominated and outdated, relying on religious leaders. To assist the Middle East in expanding their education system, Western nations should provide these countries with a model on which to base their system. (Ghabra, 2003) The West should work with Middle Eastern nations to assist them in the creation of their system based on their own needs and abilities. Reform is also required in the areas of women's rights, education, and the involvement of Islam within political systems in the region. (Ghabra, 2003) Western nations must be careful not to become overly involved in the Middle East’s efforts, but instead, give them the proper tools to develop reform on their own. (Brands, 2014)
Religion also plays a role in hindering democracy in the region. In the Middle East, identity politics plays a huge role in what drives the countries. The primary identifier for the people is religion. Because Islam is the main religion of the region, it poses a problem to democracy. The Religion of Peace website states, “Islamic law is absolutely incompatible with true democracy. It is a theocratic system with Allah alone at its head…There is no room for a secular political system in which all people are treated as equals”. Arabs hold the teachings of Allah sacred and tend to take a direct interpretation of them. Although the younger generation is more open and claims to want a more democratic system within the borders of the Middle East region, those in charge are from an older generation who want to stick to the authoritarian regimes that they claim are rooted in Islam. Many governments have argued that they are following the teachings of Islam and have gained legitimacy. This leads to one thinking that it is hard to let a democratic transition happen with one of the leading identities does not agree with it, and the current regimes seem to be aligning with the religion of the region.
The Middle East is interesting when it comes to social, cultural, and economic norms. Norton argues that the hindrance of democracy is due to the Middle East not having the adequate economic preconditions. (Norton, 2009) There is hardly a private sector in most states, and most countries are rentier states. These factors do not work for a democratic transition because a liberalized economy is needed. The Middle East also receives a lot of its money through foreign aid. The economies are not stable enough to survive a complete regime change. Socially, the Middle East is problematic as well. The high levels of illiteracy and the autocratic traditions pose a problem to democratic values. (Crystal, 2001) One of the central democratic values is literacy. Autocratic traditions pose a challenge because it is hard to change what people know. No one knows how to transition from authoritarian traditions to democratic traditions because there is not a prior precedent. The younger generation may want democracy, but no one knows how to go about it and no one knows where to start the change.
Military interference is a considerable hindrance to democracy. Linz (2001) states that for a democratic transition even to begin the security apparatus’ terror and compulsion need to be neutralized. The military is the one thing that a regime has that keeps its people in check. The idea of democracy is killed if people think that they will be harmed by pushing for it. This is the main reason that it took so many decades of authoritarian rule before the Arab Spring became a possibility. Even after the Arab Spring, the military posed a problem. Some states, like Egypt, overthrew their government and ended up with a military rule that is now suppressing the people and suppressing the idea of democracy. The military creates the most significant roadblock between the Middle East and democracy.
International interference is the last main reason that needs to be discussed. The international community is supposed to back the idea of democracy in the Middle East, and while most do, there are some who have interests in the region, and the current regimes are adhering to this interests. For example, the United States has more than one interest in the Middle East, and they also want democracy in the region. “Despite the American rhetoric of supporting democracy and human rights in the region, the truth is that with the U.S.A has long been—and remains—a key ally of tyrannical Arab regimes." (Elsayed 2015) This means that even though the international community supports the idea of democracy, they are ok with the way things are because the current approach is benefiting them and change could upset the balance that is ongoing.
The Middle East is a conundrum of issues that put democracy in a place where the transition is currently not possible. From identity politics to international interests, the region is just not ready for the changes that democracy will bring. The transition to democracy will be long and slow, and it is likely that the Middle East will not be prepared to make it for the next few years.