I will be discussing South Korea and its inherent problems.
Modern South Korea has recently had its own political issues. According to the East Asia forum in 2015, as far as South Korea is a democratic country, the forum states that democracy will be the biggest challenge for South Korea in 2015. At the end of 2014, South Korea face an economic slowdown, an ageing population, worsening socio-economic inequality and rising youth unemployment, along with a real-estate market slump. This includes worsening relations with Kim Jong-Un’s North Korea and coping with the dilemmas of China-US dynamics.
But the biggest challenge now on top of all its own issues, is ensuring the soundness and strength of its democracy. Since President Park Geun-hye took office in Feburary 2013, the soundness of political democracy requires special attention, as it seems that its liberal democracy is at risk. It is no secret in South Korea that conservative governments have security concerns for domestic political purposes. Some suspect President Park’s administration of abusing the security agenda to camouflage its poor political performance. From the beginning of her tenure, numerous nominees for key government position have not passed the parliamentary hearing process or have had to quit once in office because of sex and political scandals. This issue is being brought to light now that investigations are ongoing with President Park’s own political scandal.
Just two months ago, on the 9th December, President Park was suspended from Office due to what is said to be the 2016 South Korean political scandal. This involved Choi Soon-sil, the daughter of a South Korean Shamanistic-Evangelical cult leader, Choi Tae-min. The scandal made allegations that Ms Choi Soon-sil was responsible for masterminding the governmental policy and decision making during President Park’s administration. Media report shows that Choi Soon-sil had access to confidential documents even though she had no official government position and used her influence to extort over US$60 million from other businesses for benefit to herself and allowing her daughter to get a place in Ewha women’s university – getting a professor to do her work for her.
After President Park publicly acknowledged her close ties with Ms Choi soon-sil, protestors called for the resignation of President Park. This caused her approval rating to drop from 63% in mid-2013 (when she took over office) to the lowest ever of 4%. Since November 6 last year, many arrests are happening till this week as the investigation unfolds, President Park’s top aides, former finance and welfare minister and professors of Ewha University were all arrested for being involved in the political scandal of 2016. Of those being arrested, they testified in the 2nd parliament hearing about Choi Soon-sil meddling in governmental affairs. Ms Choi Soon-sil has been jailed since late October last year when the scandal unfolded. She faces charges of abuse of power and attempted fraud and bribery.
This outcome is a victory for South Korea’s opposition parties and independents, which had hoped that at least 28 dissenters from the ruling Saenuri Party might be emboldened to join their combined 172 votes to reach the two-thirds majority required for the motion to pass. The majority of the members in Saenuri Party, which does not yet have a strong presidential candidate, had been alarmed at the idea of an early election of President Park’s successor – given that the court accepts the motion, an election must be held within two months.
There is wide suspicion that whenever the president faces serious political challenges, announcements of espionage activities and subversion plots by pro-North Korea groups follow. Although such claims are often found to be baseless by the courts, they make citizens feel more secure and thus increases support for President Park.
The warning of press freedom is also another deep concern for South Korean democracy. In 2011, under the previous Lee Myong-bak administration, Freedom House downgraded South Korea from ‘free’ to ‘partly free’ citing increased online censorship and claiming that 160 journalists had been penalized for criticizing the government. President Park’s administration has increased pressure on critical media, by increasing the number of active lawsuits against journalists.
A Korean political analyst criticizes that the government is sending a message to the press not to write negative reports about the government. Quoting from a Korean observer’s words, “Park is taking a page from her father’s dictator playbook”. President Park’s father was de-facto leader of South Korea after leading the May 16 coup in 1961, who overthrew the second Republic of Korea. He was a military general who led South Korea as a dictator until his assassination by the director of the Korean Central Intelligence Agency (KCIA).
The long-term cost of undermining democracy is the loss of presidential and governmental credibility. The government should enhance transparency and democracy for a golden year for reform. However, a president with ideologically divided citizens cannot break through barriers to properly handle the controversial but imminent national challenges for South Korea.
What’s going to happen after the impeachment? And what does this mean for their relationship with North Korea?
Now that four-fifths of South Koreans demanded her eviction and four-fifths of parliamentarians gave them what they want, political parties are in a turmoil as they gear up for a possible early election, with no clear front-runner. If the decision on President Park’s eviction is made, a vote for her successor must take place within 60 days.
The opposition, which controls parliament, wants to ditch deals made by President Park’s conservative administration, and threatens to hobble the unpopular prime minister, Hwang Kyo-ahn. That would be a mistake, as such, politicians need to put policy ahead of politicking.
Secondly, the priority for South Korea now is security. As Donald Trump takes office in America, he has made vague threats to withdraw troops from the South even as Kim Jong Un in the North tests missiles and bombs with new gusto. The South Korean opposition should not delay the deployment of an American-funded missile-defence system, THAAD – Terminal High-Altitude Air Defence.
Despite the political instability that’s going on, the lawmakers should continue to pass some of the pending bills aimed at energizing the sagging economy. One to boost its unproductive service industry, another to cut regional red tape plus a package of reforms to loosen the rigid labour market, including provisions to pay to be tied to merit rather than seniority. These would create jobs, especially for the young whom are neither studying nor working.
Also, South Korea is Asia’s fourth largest economy. The effects of President Park’s impeachment mean that South Korea will not be able to take part in any international summit in a meaningful way as their interim government lacks legitimacy. Until they find a new successor, South Korea will be without a voice on the world stage. This may also be a bigger problem as Donald Trump’s foreign policy approach lurch from isolation to aggression during his election speech. Although Trump assured South Korea on Monday that US will stay committed to the defence of South Korea, no one knows what will happen when the time comes.
South Korea’s intelligence-sharing agreement with Japan, which was signed to counter threats from North Korea are also under the cloud at this moment. Any change to South Korea’s position on North Korea will have a significant impact on the security framework for the region.
A liberal party member, Moon, has flagged an overhaul of Seoul’s policy on North Korea, suggesting he is in favour of more talks and would be prepared to meet Kim Jong-Un if certain conditions were met.
The government is currently under pressure to review certain decisions, including the agreement with the US to deploy an anti-missile system in response to North Korean nuclear and ballistic missile tests in 2017. China and Russia are against such a deployment and there has been some unease within South Korea about the system chosen and the areas that will be directly affected. They are weary of the increased US presence in Asia as China feels that it will decrease its weapon effectiveness in the area.
I will now hand over the time to MIDN Ruchasiri, who will discuss the possibility and causes of a united Korea and how foreign interventions will affect the future of the Korean Peninsula.