The African continent is the “second largest and second highest populated” in the world, with a population estimated to be 1.2 billion as of 2014, and spanning approximately 30 million km/sq2 (FAO, 2003). The United Nations (UN) projects that the population of Africa is expected to double by year 2100. Factors include the high average fertility rates within the country and having the youngest median aged population (United Nations, 2015). However, Africa also includes the countries with the lowest life expectancy at birth. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), in 2015, the average African life expectancy was 60.0 years old, comparing this to the average world life expectancy of 71.4 years old. In some countries such as Sierra Leone, Angola, and Ivory Coast, the average life expectancy is in the lower 50s (WHO, 2015). When we look at the reasons for such high mortality rates, the WHO reports that 56% of the deaths were due to “communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional conditions,” which often are preventable (WHO, 2015).
Food security has generally been accepted as “when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO, 2009). According to the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), their quarterly report for “Crop Prospects an Food Situation”, indicates that 29 countries within Africa are currently food insecure and require external assistance. The major issues identified by the report were: Transportation an access to supplies due to political instability, increase in demand of foreign aid due to population displacement including refugees, natural disasters such as disease and weather, economic downturn, economic factors such as devaluations of their local currency, and large declines in food production and supplies. (FAO, 2017). It is estimated that “20 million lives are currently at risk of famine” (Bearar et al., 2017). All these factors are currently contributing to the food insecurity of the continent in addition to the exponentially increasing population.
The African food crisis has been going on for decades, but in order to provide efficient resolutions to Africa’s ongoing food crisis, we should attempt to understand the current issues it faces. With the exponentially increasing population, this has often resulted in concerns by the international community in order to provide the bare necessities of life for the children of Africa. Food like any other commodity, its availability is controlled by supply and demand variables. As demand increases and supply decreases, the availability of food becomes scarce. Supplies from both domestic and imported sources are currently hindered by many factors, of which stem to the current political unrest within multiple countries of Africa.
Africa has been exposed to many “high-profile conflicts such as the Boko Haram insurgency in Central Africa, the Second Libyan Civil War north of the Sahara, and the al-Shabaab insurgency in the eastern horn” (Bugnacki, 2015). The Islamic terrorist groups such as al-Shabaab and Boko Haram are closely related to Al-Qaeda. These groups often obtain control of cities or states through violence or act of terror and often ignore human rights. In 2014 alone, approximately 40,000 deaths were reported related to political violence, of which the majority was located in Yemen, South Sudan, Somalia and Nigeria (Bugnacki, 2015).
When battles amongst the government and rebellious groups happen, civilian homes, schools, supply routes, and medical centers are often met in the crossfire and are destroyed. This often creates problems in obtaining food supplies, disrupts education and health facilities. Due to these active military engagements, many people are displaced from their homes, and the influx of human movement to neighboring rural areas seeking asylum create a burden to their local supplies that often are also under stress. Approximately 19 African countries are reporting that refugees are putting a strain on the host communities (FAO, 2017). When populations are displaced, this stops their ability to self sustain and rely on humanitarian assistance as their main source of food. This also hinders availability of food supplies available for trade and exchange of food within the local marketplaces.
In Somalia, one of the centers of concern of famine, al-Shabaab is concentrated in the south of the country and strategically restricts the movement of humanitarian aid supplies and the movement of local citizens (Bearak et al., 2017). The group often uses emergency humanitarian supplies as leverage. This rebel group and their affiliates often control the major arteries into the main populations. Often creating roadblocks and only allowing their own approved food aids to the people, in order to capitalize on the opportunity to increase their appeal (Onyulo, T. 2017). By providing food supplies to people displaced by the conflict, they create a false positive image aiding their recruiting efforts. In addition, the conflict has displaced many from their homes and schools.
South Sudan, an African country that has reached international headlines in the news recently, as the UN is once again bringing the world to the attention of the increasing spread of famine in regions of South Sudan (The Associated Press, 2017). State of famine is declared where food supplies are so desperate that it is causing suffering and death (Cambridge, 2017). The UN indicates that hundreds of thousands of children will die without quick and prompt assistance (The Associated Press, 2017). To assist the situation, Canada alone has provided “$37million dollars to South Sudan alone this year, up to a total of $119million to date for South Sudan, Yemen, Somalia and Nigeria” (The Canadian Press, 2017). South Sudan is currently under political unrest due to an ongoing fight between government troops and rebel factions between the president and previous vice president due to ethnic clashes. Farmers have been unable to plant and harvest crops putting additional pressure on food supplies. It is estimated that 1.6 Million people have been internally displaced while over 50,000 people have been killed since December 2013 as a result of the political unrest (Council on Foreign Relations, 2017).
Since 2015, Yemen has been in a state of civil war. “Its currency, industry, transport infrastructure and public services have all been destroyed” (CFR, 2017). As a result, food and fuel prices have inflated while approximately 17million people require urgent humanitarian assistance. The battle in Yemen is between the Saudi Arabian – led Coalition, advised by the western countries including the United States, Britain and France, against the Shiite Militia an Islamic militant group trying to impose. Due to the conflict, the armed militia has blocked one of the most important seaports in Yemen, Hodeida. This port is located in the horn of Africa and is responsible for 90% of the food imports within the country, this will likely prevent businesses from continuing to import goods into Yemen due to its failing currency and the risk of additional conflict (CFR, 2017). As a result, Yemen is a crucial strategic location in the current food insecure continent, mostly due to the recurrent conflicts.
Boko Haram, “notorious for the kidnapping of 276 girls from a secondary school in Chibok” (Burns, 2017), is the militant terrorist organization with a mission to overthrow the national government in Nigeria. Boko Haram has increased indiscriminately attacked civilians in markets and villages, crops have been destroyed and poor economic environment persists within the country. The uses of young teenage girls to carry out attacks have been increasing (Umar, 2017). The teenage women are normally drugged and forced to carry out suicide missions. The inability for the Buhari government to stabilize the country from these terrorist, the increasing poverty, corruption and the disputes for oil revenues continue to fuel civil unrest and uncertainty for the current government regime (Peace Direct, 2015). This resulted in inflated food prices, a depressed currency and lack of supplies due to the withdrawal of many business vendors taking risk aversions.
According to Devereux, Food security is obtained through three ways, food transfers, exchange for food, and food production (Devereux, 2009). According to the FAO, the world currently has approximately 1.8billion Hectare of land suitable for agriculture but have yet to be cultivated, and 1.2 billion hectare of that land is shared between Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America (FAO, 2003 p.130). It is estimated that Africa alone has 60% of this potentially available cropland (MGI, 2016). We would find this statistic to be a potential resolution of the never-ending food crisis, as this provides great potential for self-sustainable agriculture of food crops. However, it was determined that much of the land also suffers from “low fertility, toxicity, high incidence of disease, or lack of infrastructure” (FAP, 2003, p.130). When combining factors such as poor land conditions and lack of investment due to the ongoing political instability, farmers are unable to capitalize on the available resources and produce sustainable food supplies (Deaton, J. et al, 2015). This uncultivated land would require lots of capital expenditures in modern agricultural systems in order to prevent soil erosion, and to convert the existing land to produce food crops for the local population. However this is not the only hindrance to the continent’s ability to self produce sustainably.
Climate change and global warming are major contributing factors in rising sea levels, changes in growing seasons, increasing temperatures, varying precipitation amounts and locations, across the globe. These aspects are also a reason to reduced food production in Africa. For example, in the Sahel region of Africa, Lake Chad one of the largest reservoirs bordering Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria, has shrunk to one-fifth of its original area since 1973 (Burns, J, 2017). Due to climate change, this basin has seen “enormous shrinkage and continuous seasonal fluctuations”, along with decreasing local fish production (Yunana, D., 2017). In 2015, South Africa began to experience “the combined effects of a severe drought and a strong El Nino event” which created a drought that lasted several months (Baudoin et al., 2017). In addition to increased temperatures, the drought has significantly decreased the region’s ability to harvest crops and ability to self sustain.
Maize, one of the most widely cultivated crop and of significant importance in sub-Sahara Africa (Tesfaye, K., 2015), have been impacted by the recent drought. Maize is identified “to account for approximately half of the calories consumed in Eastern and Southern Africa” (Tesfaye, K., 2015). According to Agri SA’s report, in 2016, the area of Maize planted is estimated to be 25% lower than the area planted in the previous season, and 43% below the 10-year average. Maize is also used in feed for livestock and other industrial products. The continued dry conditions will result in reduced production of the crop (Agri SA, 2016). Climate change is likely to decrease Maize productivity by up to 12% in 2050 and 20% by 2080 in the Sub Sahara Africa Regions (Tesfaye, K., 2015).
Other important crops that are affected by climate change include: Wheat, sugar, oil seeds, Soybeans, Groundnuts, Potato, Cotton and Tobacco. Livestock also require fresh water, such as beef, sheep and poultry will be required to be force slaughtered due to the fodder unavailability (Agri SA, 2016). Water restrictions in 2017 are currently still in place in many major cities such as Cape Town and Johannesburg, while once an exporter of grain, the droughts have now turned the country into a net importer of food crops. It is estimated by the government that five to six million tons of cereal import for South Africa will be required (Baudoin et al., 2017). The FAO forecasts in 2017 that the cereal production will increase positively at 41.7 percent year over year, however the supplies will still require time and multiple positively harvest seasons in order to rebalance cereal supplies.
The Eastern region of Africa, is currently also being affected by the current droughts due to the El-Nino weather pattern. “Rains in these areas have so far been erratic and insufficient resulting in crop wilting and negatively effecting the planted area and yields” (FAO, 2017). In addition, local armyworm infestations have been a factor in reducing rain-fed crop production for the 2017 season. It is predicted that areas such as Sudan and Tanzania will experience a decrease in cereal production year over year from 2016 of -14.4 percent and -7.4 percent respectively (FAO, 2017). Prolonged drought conditions in “central and Southern Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, and North and eastern Kenya,” have resulted in high livestock mortalities and decline of milk production (FAO,2017). The FAO report also indicates that approximately 10 of the 29 countries in Africa currently requiring external assistance for food, is a result of ongoing dry conditions and pest infestations, creating an exceptional shortfall in food production and supplies.
In association to the decreased and suppressed food supplies, the demand for food has increased in Africa. According to the United Nations, Africa’s population has increased 16% in the last 12 years, and it is projected that Africa is the fastest growing major area. It is estimated that “between 2015 to 2030, 1.3 billion people will be added in Africa” (United Nations, 2017). Of the 48 countries in the world deemed to be leased developed countries (LDCs) by the UN, 27 of these are in Africa. The population in LDCs is projected to double in size from 954 million in 2015 to 1.9 billion by 2050 (United Nations, 2015). The exponential growth expected in the African regions will make it difficult for governments to reduce the food insecurity problems along with the increasing demand for food, healthcare, education, and other essential services. While many African countries are currently food insecure, this will put a strain on foreign aid and imports from other countries.
In addition to population growth, the forecasted demands for various types of foods will continue to grow, particularly in West Africa, especially in regions with greater economic growth (Zhou, Y. et al, 2016). It was determined that demand for higher value foods such as proteins, dairy, fruits and vegetables will continue to increase in these regions by 2040, along with the demand for more options of food due to globalization (Zhou, Y. et al, 2016). A production shortfall for rice and wheat will pose one of the greatest challenges for the Economic Community of West African States (Zhou, Y. et al, 2016).
A shift in demand to prepackaged foods due to its convenience and lower costs has increased in the recent years. As rising urbanization of South Africa has influenced its diet to a more westernized diet, containing foods with “sweetened drinks, increased proportions of processed and packaged food including edible vegetable oils, increased animal source foods, added caloric sweeteners, and a shift away from vegetables” (Ronquest-Ross, L. C., et al., 2015). Although this raises a concern of long-term public health, it also creates a demand for imported processed and packaged foods not manufactured domestically. This in turn will shift the domestic agricultural production focus towards cash crops, rather then crops that can be used to reduce the food supply imbalance. This trend in food demand will shift the way capital investment is used towards agricultural practices.
The food crisis in Africa is not isolated to one specific region or one specific factor but encompasses many reasons all four quadrants of the continent. The problems of food supply in Africa are incorporating issues from both supply and demand. Factors that hinder supply include continual political unrest, reoccurring natural disasters, poor agricultural conditions, and economic downturns have all upset the development and production of food supplies. Demand for food has continued to increase with population growth, economic recovery and growth and globalization. These issues are not just localized to the continent itself but a global issue that requires international attention. In order to find a solution and establish long-term sustainability, the affected areas must find ways to resolve the existing issues while increasing food transfers, exchange for food, and domestic food production.