Zambia was reclassified by the World Bank as a lower middle-income country in 2011. While it has maintained steady economic growth rates for the past decade, human development indicators remain static, and inequalities are high. The Country tanks 139 out of 188 in the 2015 Human Development Index .
Zambia’s Patriotic Front (PF) government led by President Edgar Chagwa Lungu were re-elected in a closely contested presidential race in August 2016.
Zambia’s economy came under strain in 2015 and 2016. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 2.8% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016, much slower than the average 7.4% between 2004 and 2014 .
Meanwhile, the Government of Zambia approved its 7th National Development Plan 2017–2021 and launched it in June 2017. The plan, "Accelerating Development Efforts Towards Vision 2030 Without Leaving Anyone Behind,” calls for a fundamental shift in the way resources are being allocated, taking into account global and regional trends. It has 5 pillars:
o Economic diversification and Job creation
o Poverty and Vulnerability
o Reduced Developmental Inequalities
o Enhancing Human Development
o Conducive Governance Environment for Economic Diversification
The strategic goal of the 7th National Development Plan is to create a diversified and resilient economy for sustained growth and social economic development. It will also include a result-oriented performance management system to be used to measure progress of its implementation. The Plan states that poverty has remained persistently high at over 76% in rural areas, compared to 23% in urban areas. The disparity shows that in Zambia, poverty has a rural dimension and the economic gains of the country largely benefit the urban areas.
With the 2015 projected national population at 15.9 million, this meant that 8.5 million people lived in poverty, with 3.5 million of those living in extreme poverty . It is clear that economic growth did not translate into significant poverty reduction, especially in rural areas. Zambia is one of the least equal societies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Its main development challenge is how to ensure this economic growth can benefit the poorest. The new classification of ‘lower middle income’ by the World Bank sends mixed messages as a small percentage of the population becomes wealthy, there is continued deprivation in rural and urban areas, and inequalities are exacerbated. Extreme poverty, hunger, lack of access to social services including health and education are still factors for many living in remote areas, including parts of Northern Province.
Zambia has the highest number of gender-based violence (GBV) cases in southern Africa, as a result of violent acts perpetrated mostly by men. According to the GBV Baseline survey it is estimated that at least 72% of women in Zambia have experienced GBV, and 51% of men admit to having carried out such acts at least once in their lifetime.
In general, women, who especially in rural areas form the majority of the poor, experience exclusion and marginalisation. They have less voice, less autonomy and fewer opportunities to make choices about their lives. The legal framework in Zambia discriminates against women and is in keeping with traditional norms and a strong patriarchal culture. Zambia is the signatory to numerous human rights agreements, but still the Constitution supports the patriarchal society, and women are discriminated against in marriage and property laws. Harmful traditional practices such as early marriage, polygamy and keeping girls at home for household duties have affected women’s ability to access decision making structures at all levels in society, and these continue.
Zambia’s national HIV prevalence rate is ranked 7th globally, with young women being particularly at risk. Though Zambia was leading in the prevention of HIV and AIDS when the disease was first tackled in the 1990s, this has slipped significantly.
Zambia has made considerable progress in the fight against corruption in the last decade, as reflected by major improvements recorded in main governance indicators by the NGO Transparency International . The legal and institutional frameworks against corruption have been strengthened, and efforts have been made to reduce red tape and streamline bureaucratic procedures, as well as to investigate and prosecute corruption cases, including those involving high-ranking officials.
The richest 20 per cent of households in Zambia are responsible for 60 per cent of total expenditure while the poorest 80 per cent share 40 per cent of the total. Poor households spend 66 per cent of their resources on food, with those better off spending only 34 per cent .
The Seventh National Development Plan has moved to an ‘integrated multi sectoral’ approach, and promises to ‘leave no one behind’. This is a direct reference to the apparent inequalities which have remained in the country even though the economy has strengthened to such an extent that it is now considered a ‘middle income country’. The plan recognises the ‘development deficits’ in rural areas, poor road networks and poor delivery of social services, poor access to electricity and low productivity generally. The plan notes that the highly centralised system of development and service delivery disadvantages these rural areas, and the government’s financial management system does not allow for direct receipts of development resources in deprived rural areas .
The poorest people in Zambia are targeted by many development interventions. In Northern Province, the poorest people are those who live with HIV and AIDS, female headed households, youth headed households, aged headed households and those vulnerable to disaster with low resilience to economic and climactic shocks . The Councils tend to focus on the ‘viable vulnerable’, to the extent that the poorest were said to be the ‘clients’ of the social welfare department, and not the agriculture department. Thus, the Councils do not seem to be prioritising the needs of the most vulnerable. In Mbala 85% of people are engaged in subsistence farming, 12% of households are female headed, and 13% are headed by someone who is under 25 years . In Luwingu 86% are subsistence farmers, 26% of households are headed by women, and 32% by someone under 25 years, with 16% of households headed by someone over 71 years .
Irish Aid in Zambia and the Aid Agenda
The goal of Irish Aid’s programme in Zambia is to contribute to the reduction of poverty and inequality. The proposed budget was €69 million or €13.8 million for each year.
Delivery mechanisms have changed somewhat for this country programme. Approaches are moving from direct budget support (as is the case in most of Irish Aid’s programmes) and now working through existing government systems, NGO partners and other partners.
The latest Northern Province Programme builds on earlier work, but there are fewer sectors involved. Irish Aid has in the most recent CSP, hired an international NGO (Self Help Africa, SHA) as a management agent, and there is no longer an Irish Aid office in Northern Province.
Irish Aid has been a key player and has supported the aid effectiveness agenda in Zambia over many years. Ireland’s support for the Joint Assistance Strategy Zambia (JASZ) saw the Irish Aid Lusaka team leading on several policy issues including Education and HIV and AIDS. Over the past few years, the donor landscape has changed, the Paris approach is used less and less, and the ‘like-minded donor’ system within which Irish Aid worked well has ebbed away. For example, the Education Basket Fund that Irish Aid worked through has all but ceased, and there are now only two donors involved, the Irish and the Japanese. Changing agendas at home mean that many governments have changed the way they run their aid programme, and the way they use their aid funds. Calls for support for issues such as refugees in host countries are taking funds from the aid budget. Fewer countries, including Ireland, are participating in direct budget support. This affects the influencing agenda too, as there are fewer donors involved, and fewer donor forums to work within.
There have been unforeseen consequences of some donors exiting their aid programme in Zambia. The Swedish remain in a purely development capacity to try to affect change in poverty. The Norwegians noticed after their scaling down that this had affected other donors’ programmes (including the Irish) by reducing the critical mass of donors around the table.
In 2015, Zambian ODA was 3.8% of overall spending in the country. This is a huge change from 23.07% in 2000 . This relative level of support means that donors have less influence as they are bringing proportionally less to the table. As well as this, political changes mean that Zambia’s closest regional allies are Mugabe in Zimbabwe and Zuma in South Africa, signalling a lack of openness to engaging with donors, and increasing lack of opportunities for change.