2018 is shaping up to be a year of conflict and division in Europe. This could well be the year that the EU falls apart! There are a lot of major, divisive problems just under the surface in Europe. When the union collapses, it will have earthshaking implications.
There are several things that could tear the union apart:
Nationalism
Every few years, people discover unexploded bombs left over from World War II in Europe, usually in British or German cities. These bombs were dropped during World War II bombing raids, and for whatever reason, they didn’t go off at that time. They sank into the ground and were forgotten about. But although years have gone by, those bombs are still there, hidden under the surface.
As soon as someone discovers these bombs, they have to get rid of them. There is still a dangerous potential for the bombs to explode and cause a lot of damage.
Last week, two unexploded bombs were found in Warrington, which is a city not far from Liverpool. The British government had to evacuate people from their homes before they could remove the bombs, because if the bombs are disturbed, they can easily explode.
Last year in Frankfurt, over 60,000 people had to be evacuated because of the discovery of a very large unexploded bomb in the city.
These bombs are a good analogy for the state of Europe today. There is one major issue in Europe today that is a dangerous dormant bomb, left over from World War II and other wars. If it gets disturbed too much, it could explode. And it is being disturbed more and more every day.
This issue is nationalism. Nationalism made a huge comeback in Europe in 2017, particularly because of the refugee crisis. Not just in a We don’t want immigrants kind of way. More in a We don’t want to be part of this country way.
Look at the fractured state of 2017 Europe, with the increase in ethnic groups seeking independence from their nations. The right of an ethnic group to determine its own destiny is enshrined in the United Nations charter. But by almost universal agreement, it does not apply to Europe because the principle of national self-determination was at the core of the 20th century’s most violent conflicts.
After World War I with the Treaty of Versailles, self-determination sounded great in principle. But in practice, it was a DISASTER.
Historian Paul Johnson wrote in his book Modern Times:
[V]iolent ethnic nationalism … both dictated the nature of the Versailles settlement and ensured it would not work …. [I]t was in Central and Eastern Europe that the violence and the racial antagonism which provoked it, were most acute, widespread and protracted. A score or more minor wars were fought there in the years 1919–22. They are poorly recorded in Western histories, but they left terrible scars … which contributed directly to the chronic instability in Europe between the wars. The Versailles Treaty, in seeking to embody the principles of self-determination, actually created more, not fewer, minorities, and much angrier ones (many were German or Hungarian), armed with far more genuine grievances. … Every country was landed with either an anguished grievance or an insuperable internal problem.
These problems and grievances provoked what Johnson and his fellow historian Fritz Stern call a “Thirty Years’ War,” which began in 1914 and culminated in the most violent clash the world has ever seen: World War II.
It’s no wonder that after World War II, self-determination was deemed a poor foundation for modern Europe. So a new convention was established. European borders were set, and they were to be left alone. These borders would not be redrawn except by mutual consent. These new border lines left many ethnic minorities within other countries, or even divided into multiple nations. However, no one would support their claims for independence or separation because they feared the whole system would collapse.
There are Hungarians living in Romania, many of whom would rather live in Hungary. There are ethnic Germans in Poland and ethnic Russians in the Baltic states. Dutch-speaking Belgians want to break off from the rest of Belgium. Even some Bavarians are not too keen on the idea of being part of Germany.
There is no way to resolve these conflicts easily. These groups could carve out chunks of territory from existing countries to form new states—but these new states would themselves contain minorities.
Many people are unsatisfied with European borders as they stand. Since the borders were officially established, there has been a minority voice trying to get the borders redrawn, but it’s never been a large enough movement to enact change. However, in 2017, we saw several ethnic groups on the Eurasian continent People have been trying to change that decision for several years now. 2017 could be the year it all comes apart.
Catalonia
We talked about this several months ago with the independence referendum in Catalonia.
Now Catalonia is back in the news.
Catalonia is a region in Spain that attempted to gain its independence from Spain last year. After Catalonia voted for independence, the Spanish government took over the region, disbanded the regional elections, arrested the main political leaders (who are now facing long, long jail sentences), and called fresh elections.
These moves by the Spanish government did delay the independence movement, but now the problem is back. The government hoped that the anti-independence factions would lose the election, but they didn’t. Instead, the pro-independence factions lost. (Is this supposed to say the opposite, or am I just confused?)
Things could easily come to a head again. Carles Puigdemont was Catalonia’s leader before the election that led to the referendum. Spain wanted to lock him up, so he fled to Brussels. It is possible that he could be elected to lead Catalonia again, despite not being able to return to Spain for fear of arrest. Since he cannot actually be in the country, Catalonia may be facing government by Skype if Puigdemont and his supporters succeed.
This isn’t exactly an ideal situation, so the pro-independence movement may try to reconcile somewhat with Madrid. A lot of the pro-independence supporters didn’t even really want independence in the first place. Their main goal was to prevent the Spanish government from taking so much of Catalonia’s tax money to subsidize poorer states.
This situation may be mostly calm right now, but it is dangerously tense—and one wrong move either way could cause the whole situation to explode.
South Tyrol
The next European national self-determination movement is over a more dangerous divide between Austria, part of prosperous northern Europe, and Italy, part of the poorer south.
On January 16, Austria’s foreign minister announced the nation’s first talks about giving Austrian citizenship to nearly 400,000 Italians in northern Italy.
You may have heard of something called a frozen conflict. In the traditional sense of the word, a frozen conflict is a situation where there is a cease fire between two sides who disagree. No one is fighting right now, but they still disagree vehemently. The conflict is frozen. The problem hasn’t been solved, even if the fighting has died down.
Austria and Italy have one of the longest-running frozen conflicts in Europe—one that has been ignored for so long that people have almost forgotten that it exists. But now it may be making a comeback.
The disputed area is South Tyrol, a mostly autonomous province in northern Italy. It used to be part of the Hapsburg Empire. Many people in that area still want to be part of Austria, not Italy.
This problem has been smoldering for decades, but now Austria is stoking the fire by offering to give Austrian passports and citizenship to 400,000 inhabitants of South Tyrol whose native language is German. With this concession, 70% of the inhabitants of South Tyrol would be eligible to claim Austrian citizenship. This area is Italy’s largest, richest, and least Italian province. If this move does inspire a secession movement in South Tyrol, Italy stands to lose a lot.
Italy is furious. The president of the European Parliament, Antionia Tajani—an Italian—said that “Europe" has "many shortcomings, but it has left the era of nationalisms behind." Benedetto Della Vedova, an undersecretary at the Italian foreign affairs ministry, said that Austrian leader Sebastian Kurz’s decision had “the mark of an ethno-nationalist iron fist.”
“To grant citizenship based on ethnicity would have extremely serious consequences elsewhere, for instance in the Balkans,” he wrote. "It could lead to the resurgence of territorial demands which would impact the peaceful coexistence of countries in the E.U., too."
You can see why Rome is worried. By allowing 70% of this province to have Austrian citizenship, Austria is broadcasting its intention to spread its influence. The Austrian government is talking about allowing South Tyrol inhabitants to serve in the Austrian armed forces. It is also considering ways to involve this area in Austria’s regional government more, like including them in talks with Austrian state governors.
In an even more blatant display of Austria’s intentions, Heinz-Christian Strache, the vice-chancellor of Austria, demanded the “return [of the] former Austrians to their native country,” according to the Aargauer Zeitung newspaper.
In South Tyrol, the Austrian government’s proposal was welcomed by most people, including the mainstream conservative party. There, a move that is being perceived as pro-secessionist and nationalistic elsewhere in Italy is instead viewed as pro-European. In the EU, which already has no border controls and is aiming to integrate further, double-citizenship could only help to deepen cross-country ties, people in South Tyrol say.
Of course, Germany is heavily involved in this too, supporting the native German speakers. German Foreign Policy had an article on this from January 16:
German national foreign political organizations have regularly supported German-speaking organizations in Bolzano-Alto Adige and supported them both politically and materially. The most important party in the province, the South Tyrolean People's Party, has always cooperated closely with the German CSU. … Even high-ranking politicians such as Franz-Josef Strauss were at times involved ….
The latest South Tyrol offensive is taking place at a time when nationalist organizations are on the offensive in many parts of Europe—among others in Spain, Belgium and Romania. Proponents of Austrian citizenship for German-speaking Northern Italians point out that Italy has passed its own law and issues Italian passports to citizens of Slovenia and Croatia of Italian descent. At the same time, critics warn that Austria will pass the law planned by the ultra-right-wing coalition, so that an avalanche of similar steps in various other EU states cannot be ruled out; the respective conflicts could dangerously escalate at any time.
This area has been violent in the past, and it could quickly escalate again. We haven’t seen this kind of a border conflict between two European powers for decades.