Evidence of a slowdown in rates of internal migration is emerging in many high-income countries. What could the social and economic implications of this be?
Introduction
Migration is a topic which is constantly vibrant in the news with refugee crises, immigration policies and net migration targets frequently making headlines. However, internal migration seems to persistently remain out of the spotlight due to the world’s fixation on immigration (Smith et al., 2015). Migration is the foundation of the world we live in today from the creation of the globalised world beginning with colonial expansion in the 16th century (Smith et al., 2015). It is the constant key to the developed world, yet the developed world is changing, and with it, a global change in migration.
Internal migration is frequently associated with the developed world and seen as a choice and opportunity for individuals to reach their goals and expand their utility (Champion, Cooke and Shuttleworth, 2017). Migration is central to creating efficient labour and housing markets and ensuring competition between people and place exist. It permits not just a country but an individual to develop (Champion, Cooke and Shuttleworth, 2017). Traditionally migration trends were seen to correlate with the trends of the business cycle; increasing during booms and decreasing during recessions (Champion and Falkingham, 2016)
although in recent years these trends have changed. The US migration rate has reached its lowest point since the second world war (Frey, 2011) but the US is not alone as similar trends have been found across multiple high-income countries across the world including Japan, Australia and the UK (Champion, Cooke and Shuttleworth, 2017).
Yet, the term migration is ambiguous with no singular definition in existence (Anderson and Blinder, 2018). Some organisations may define a migrant as an individual who is foreign-born, has a different ethnicity or has crossed an international border for a certain amount of time, but these all relate to international migration. Within this essay the term internal migrant will refer to the most universally known understanding of it; an individual who has crossed a political, state or regional border within a country (Skeldon, 2017).
This essay will first outline the evidence of a decrease in internal migration before discussing social and economic implications in terms of ageing, family ties, mental health and labour markets before drawing conclusions to finish.
Evidence
The slowdown in internal migration is evidently clear when examining the US migration rates over the past 30 years. Figure 1 illustrates the decrease in internal migration rates using 10-year intervals from 1986 to 2017 with data from the US Census Bureau. In 1986-1987, 18% of those surveyed migrated internally compared to 10.6% in 2016-2017. Although the US is considered more mobile than ever with the advance in transport, technology and increased use and accessibility to ICTs (Champion, Cooke and Shuttleworth, 2017) the country is overall becoming less mobile.
Furthermore, Frey’s study on the ‘Great American Migration Slowdown’ found that in-migration has decreased and/or switched to out-migration within 23 states between 2007-2008 (Frey, 2011). Although this may have been triggered by the great recession, migration has not recovered in correlation to the economic recovery. This draws focus to a question of immobility within the US and countries like it. Similar trends to the US can be found across the western world. Sweden’s migration frequency dropped from 2.7% in 1970 to 2.1% in 2001 (Lunholm, 2007). Australia between 1996 and 2001 suffered a steady decline amounting to a decrease of 12% -20% in internal migration (Champion, Cooke and Shuttleworth, 2017). High-income countries in the East are also experiencing a slow-down of internal migration rates. Within Asia, middle-income countries such as China, Vietnam and Indonesia are experiencing a rise in internal migration while high-income countries including Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are experiencing a prolonged decline (Champion, Cooke and Shuttleworth, 2017). This presents the global phenomena occurring within high-income countries that even though they may not share the same culture, values, beliefs, governance or economy, being titled a developed country is causation to this decrease.
Implications
Ageing
Since the 1970s, fertility rates have radically dropped among developed countries shifting their demographic models and creating ageing populations (Smith et al., 2015). Demographic changes in the US between 1999 and 2009 have contributed to an estimated 17% of the overall decline in internal migration (Champion, Cooke and Shuttleworth, 2017). In the UK between 1975-2011, there was an overall fall in internal migration, but the fall wasn’t constant for the entirety of age groups as migration amongst young ages was rising (Champion and Falkingham, 2016). The same pattern is observed in Sweden with the increase in the proportion of 18-25-year-olds migrating increasing from 27% in 1970 to 32% in 2001 (Lundholm, 2007). As younger age groups are becoming increasingly mobile, immobility in older age groups is increasing at a faster rate for there to be an overall decrease in migration.
Although international data shows that internal migration rates among pensioners are decreasing, migration is still not uncommon in retirees. The problem isn’t necessarily the decrease in migration but the increase in youth out-migration. Florida is known to attract retirees from across America as a state of migration growth however, it is one of the first states in the US to show a pronounced decline in migration moving to a net out-migration in 2007-2008 (Cooke, 2011). Since it has remained a popular migration for those of retirement age, the decrease in in-migration has caused there to be a reduction in dynamic, middle-class, young workers (Frey, 2011) This creates a severe age imbalance across the state decreasing the tax base and puts strains on services especially those needed to accommodate an ageing population.
However, youth migration can be decreased through decentralisation. A proportion of higher education institutions in Sweden have become decentralised permitting access for many students to attend university in their hometowns (Lundholm, 2007). Therefore, students’ mobility decreases as it’s economical to remain at the parental home for the duration of their studies. This encourages students to remain in their hometown after they graduate resulting in the production of a strong, educated labour force spread across the country (Lundholm, 2007). In turn, this furthermore increases the accessibility of higher education suggesting a parallel between the decrease in migration with the increase in education.
Modern Families
Families of the modern world are changing year by year with a decrease in marriage, increase in divorce and growth in solo-living (Lundholm, 2007). It is estimated that at least half of US marriages today will end in divorce (Kennedy and Ruggles, 2014) which is one of the main social causes of decreasing internal migration. Recently, it has become the social norm for children from divorced families to spend equal time with both parents. Family ties force a divorced parent to become immobile for their children due to legal requirements (e.g. custody) and emotional support (Champion, Cooke and Shuttleworth, 2017). As higher unemployment rates correspond to an increase in divorce, the inability to move after divorce may prolong the time an individual is unemployed (Clarke-Stewart and Brentano, 2007). This results in divorced parents being financially unstable and restricts them from migrating to reach their life goals. However, this argument only considers employment as a life goal and not family life which some individuals may prioritise.
Mental Health
A recent study measured mental health using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ), classing those with poor mental health as having high scores, found that poor mental health is positively correlated to migration levels within the UK (Wilding, Martin and Moon, 2018). Of the individuals in this study, 11.3% who were considered to have poor mental health were predicted to migrate compared to 8.5% of those with good mental health (Wilding, Martin and Moon, 2018). This correlation found could imply that migration and mental health problems are inversely proportional. However, this statement is both far-fetched and inaccurate as mental health illnesses are rising globally. The World Health Organisation (WHO) predicted in 2001 that by 2020 there will be an increase of 10-20 times the amount of suicide attempts today (Bertolote and Fleischmann, 2015). Therefore, the decrease in internal migration cannot be related to mental health if poor mental health is positively correlated to migration. Non-migrants are found to be less likely to report their poor mental health compared to internal migrants (Wilding, Martin and Moon, 2018) which could explain these contrasting findings. A decrease in internal migration could consequently imply a residential immobility causing people to live in areas with less access to opportunities, stagnating their ability to reach their life goals and therefore increase mental health issues (Coulter, 2013).
ICTs
The increase in information and computing technologies (ICTs) were initially considered to encourage migrants to migrate through researching their destination, considering proximity to employment, and creating connections through social networks (Champion, Cooke and Shuttleworth, 2017). However, an increase in ICTs precipitates an increase in immobility due to the reduction in ineffective moves (Champion, Cooke and Shuttleworth, 2017). Migrants are deterred from moving due to progressively becoming aware of the risks that a move may entail. This implies a reduction in people undertaking speculative moves that may have increased their social and economic opportunities. They are instead stagnant, eradicating their opportunities of bettering themselves. A reduction in internal migration may, therefore, may lead to a halt in society actively moving towards opportunities and alternatively staying where they feel comfortable and safe.
The Labour Market
The greatest impact a decrease in internal migration has is the effect on the supply of labour. Within standard economic theory, supply and demand are equal in equilibrium and shifts within them affect wages and quantity of labour (Figure 2). Labour supply is dependent on migration and fertility rates but as fertility rates are rapidly decreasing in high-income countries (Champion, Cooke and Shuttleworth, 2017) migration is the main dependent. Shifts in supply are a necessity in long run economic theory to counteract a shift in demand and bring the economy back into equilibrium. Generally, when demand increases within an area, in-migration to this area will also increase so supply and demand will once again be equal and vice versa.
With the decrease in internal migration, these supply shifts are not occurring as efficiently as before. Therefore, when demand is low, employment remains low for longer if not infinitely. However, people now favour longer commutes compared to migrating closer to work. For example, within London, high house prices have discouraged many workers to migrate and instead prefer the cheaper housing on the outskirts of the city with a longer commute (Smith et al., 2015). Therefore, the decrease in internal migration could be a reflection of society favouring long commutes to work rather than a decrease in employment rates.
Conclusion
Overall, there is ample evidence of a slowdown in internal migration within high-income countries across the world. Although high-income countries are perceived to be increasingly mobile, mobility is only found within the younger age groups. The main problem lies with the change in the type of migration, like Florida, rather than the decrease itself. Increases in mental health and ICTs, as well as changes in family dynamics, deter people from migrating and assists in preventing them from reaching their life goals. However, this is dependent on what an individual’s life goals are, which are almost impossible to calculate. Migration is prominent for the upkeep of the supply of labour ensuring wages remain high and unemployment low, although shifts in society’s view on longer commutes may counteract this issue. Most research is focussed on the decrease of mobility, yet to understand this it is equally important for researchers to assess the increase in immobility and the implications this may have on society’s future.
References
Anderson, P. and Blinder, D. (2018). Who Counts as a Migrant? Definitions and their Consequences – Migration Observatory. [online] Migration Observatory. Available at: https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/who-counts-as-a-migrant-definitions-and-their-consequences/ [Accessed 23 Oct. 2018].
Bertolote, J. and Fleischmann, A. (2015). A global perspective in the epidemiology of suicide. Suicidologi, 7(2).
Champion, A., Cooke, T. and Shuttleworth, I. (2017). Internal migration in the developed world. 1st ed. Oxon: Routledge.
Champion, T. and Falkingham, J. (2016). Population change in the United Kingdom. 1st ed. London: Rowman & Littlefield, pp.125-142.
Clarke-Stewart, A. and Brentano, C. (2007). Divorce: Causes and Consequences. Family Court Review, 45(2), pp.341-344.
Cooke, T. (2011). It is not Just the Economy: Declining Migration and the Rise of Secular Rootedness. Population, Space and Place, 17(3), pp.193-203.
Coulter, R. (2013). Wishful Thinking and the Abandonment of Moving Desires over the Life Course. Environment and Planning A, 45(8), pp.1944-1962.
Frey, W. (2011). The Great American Migration Slowdown: Regional and Metropolitan Dimensions. 1st ed. Washington, DC: Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings.
Kennedy, S. and Ruggles, S. (2014). Breaking Up Is Hard to Count: The Rise of Divorce in the United States, 1980–2010. Demography, 51(2), pp.587-598.
Lundholm, E. (2007). Are Movers Still the Same? Characteristics of Interregional Migrants in Sweden 1970-2001. Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 98(3), pp.336-348.
McCollum, D. (2018). International migration, the economy and development.
Skeldon, Ronald 2017, International Migration, Internal Migration, Mobility and Urbanization:
Towards More Integrated Approaches, Technical Paper No. 2017/7, United Nations
Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, October, at: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf/expert/27/papers/II/paper-Skeldon-final.pdf
Smith, D., Finney, N., Halfacree, K. and Walford, N. (2015). Internal migration: geographical perspectives and processes. 1st ed. Ashgate: Farnham.
Wilding, S., Martin, D. and Moon, G. (2018). Place and preference effects on the association between mental health and internal migration within Great Britain. Health & Place, 52, pp.180-187.
US Census Bureau (1989) “Table 1. Detailed Mobility, by Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin”. Geographical Mobility: March 1986 to March 1987. [online] Census.gov. Available at: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/1987/demo/geographic-mobility/p20-430.html
US Census Bureau (1998) Geographical Mobility: March 1996 to March 1997 (Update). [online] Census.gov. Available at: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/1997/demo/geographic-mobility/p20-510.html
US Census Bureau (2008), “Table 1. General Mobility, by Race and Hispanic Origin, Region, Sex, Age, Relationship to Householder, Educational Attainment, Marital Status, Nativity, Tenure, and Poverty Level: 2006 to 2007”. Geographical Mobility: 2006 to 2007. [online] Census.gov. Available at: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2007/demo/geographic-mobility/cps-2007.html
US Census Bureau (2018), “Table 1. General Mobility, by Race and Hispanic Origin, Region, Sex, Age, Relationship to Householder, Educational Attainment, Marital Status, Nativity, Tenure, and Poverty Status: 2016 to 2017”. Geographical Mobility: 2016 to 2017. [online] Census.gov Available at: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/geographic-mobility/cps-2017.html [Accessed 17 Oct. 2018]