Life has dramatically changed from the 1950s, in today’s society we are faced with the pressing problems of job security and economic assurance amongst many things that did not phase those of the 1950s. These changes have evidently had an impact on voting behaviour in today’s society, breaking the mould of rational voters. However, the most typical main factors that affect voting remain. Class and partisan dealignment, rational choice theory and media play fundamental roles in influencing peoples votes. In this essay, I will discuss how these factors have changed and adapted over sixty years in order to fit in with modern day society and continue to have an impact on voting behaviour within the UK.
Social class has always been the most rudimentary factor that affects voting behaviour, during the 1950s social class was much more segregated than it is in today’s society, which in turn meant it had a greater impact on the way people voted. Social class was greatly divided and played a significant role in society during the 1950’s. In the 1950’s your social standing was would correspond with which party you voted for, emphasised by Peter Pulzer in Political Representation and Elections in Britain ( George, Allen & Unwin, 1967) ‘class is the basis of British party politics; all else is embellishment and detail.’ Middle-class citizens tended to vote Conservative and working class would vote Labour. Working class citizens wanted a strong trade union, welfare state and the nationalisation of the health service, as they believed it would offer a better and fairer lifestyle for them which the Labour Party offered, due to the party being founded on the trade union movement, which in turn caused the working class vote to be won by them. On the other hand, the conservative vote had backing from middle-class voters as they stood for many of the same ideologies, the preservation of personal wealth and private ownership which would allow the rich to become even more richer. Explained through the sociological model of voting behaviour which states that social class would impact the type of political socialisation and influence you would be susceptible to thus influencing political attitudes and overall voting intentions. (Butler and Stokes, 1963) . The clear and significant divide between both parties ideologies created a large cleavage between the social classes and low electoral volatility, in turn, created a notable impact on voting behaviour. Partisanship played a key role in voting behaviour in Britain as-well during this period, more than three-quarters of voters have strong ties to a particular political party which during the 1950’s was either of the two leading parties, Conservative or Labour. This partisanship allowed the parties to have confidence in elections due to the reassurance of their devoted following. During the 1950’s and for many years after Britain was very much a two party-system, Labour on one side and Conservative on the other, collectively winning over 90% of the seats in the House of Commons between 1945 and 1970. With the median voter placed centre-left, and both parties not deviating policies from this position and the engagement of Keynesianism, it is very evident that social class played a key role in influencing voting behaviour during the 1950’s.
Social class, an important factor in voting behaviour in the 21st century, no longer plays such a significant role as it did in the 1950’s. The dealignment of partisanship and class voting has had a significant impact on voting behaviour, voters are no longer voting for their typical party which in turn causes the poll prediction to be oppressive. Electoral volatility highlights this implementing that in modern day Britain people are more likely to vote based on issues addressed by parties and the moral standing of the parties rather than class loyalty which was a prominent feature of voting in the 1950’s. ‘The committed electorate has begun to make way for the hesitant electorate’ (Crewe 1984: 203-204). Know a days party identification is practically non-existent, voting behaviour in Britain today is now highly influenced by the issues of the day and personal opinion (Himmelwiet et al: 1985). By looking at the Alford Index we can see the impact of class dealignment, in particular, the effect it has had on the Labour Party. The index shows the proportion of class voting by subtracting Labour’s percentage of the working-class vote from its middle-class vote. In 1964 it stood at 42, which shows that the working class where more in favour of Labour than the middle class, however, this changes as in 1997 it felt to 20 and to 17 during the 2010 general election, which was the first time that more than half of the Labour vote was made up by middle-class voters. In recent years the proportion of working-class vs middle-class vote for Labour has reached an all-time low of 6. This index also comes in to effect through the statistics of the 2010 general election, where there was an evident transfer of working-class votes to the conservative party, where they gained from every class except the lower class who stayed labour which resulted in them gaining 39% of the higher classes vote while labour only had 27%, this shift is due to the dealignment of partisanship and class or the changing of Labour ideologies moving more to the right, as they try to adapt to the needs of XXI century working class citizens.
Another factor that has caused electoral volatility is the implementation of the rational choice theory and the wider choice voters have today. Britain despite having a multi-party system, has always had two main parties, the Conservatives and Labour, however, in recent years, smaller parties have begun to play leading roles in British politics. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has risen in political standing in the past few years and have gained a great number of supporters, due to the Scottish independence movement. This insurgence of support of smaller parties such as the SNP can be seen in recent elections where more and more seats are being won by them, having moved from a minority government established in 2007 to a majority government in 2011. As of 2017 SNP have 3% of seats within the House of Commons. It is an uprising of small parties like this which are affecting the predictability of electoral results. Smaller parties have been gaining popularity due to the implementation of the rational choice theory; this theory suggests that in today’s society, people are more likely to vote for a party whom they will benefit from rather than following the partisan demographics and typical reasonings for voting behaviour such as class, gender and geographical location. Essentially those who follow the rational choice theory have been described in the words of Ivor Crewe as those whose ‘votes are up for grabs’. So it is evident that voting behaviour today is rather rational, more and more people decide whom to vote on based on factors such as the party’s track record, the leader of the party and their manifesto. Voters must be aware of an issue, have an opinion on the issue, distinguish a difference between parties and their view on said issue and finally vote accordingly (Butler and Stokes: 1963)
Society has developed greatly since the 1950’s and we now live in a more susceptible world where influences are not as limited as they were. We live in a day and age where the media play a fundamental role in our lives, affecting our every decision and opinion. Primarily we can become more knowledgeable on which party to vote for through media outlets such as the news or online articles meaning that it is much easier for people to form their own decisions rather than be influenced by their peers. Through media, political parties can also get more exposure and reach people they normally would not which can, in turn, increase voting turn-out and swing the vote in their favour. Despite these benefits there can be a downside to the impact social media now has, It has become increasingly hard to predict voting behaviour as unlike the 1950’s many people do not follow the predicted norm for their social class, geographical location etc… due to the readily and vast amount of information available to society today which can shape and define who they vote for. However, there is much controversy over the influence the media can have on an election. Despite television channels being legally bound to be non-partisan and give a fair amount of coverage for the parties, newspapers are allowed to openly support parties, which is very evident in the national press where they are partisans to the conservative party. Despite this it can be very hard to evaluate the impact that the media has however with it being so indispensable in today’s society, it is very likely that it helps to sway voters hence why parties spend a huge amount of money to ensure their party is perceived in a positive manner. The internet and media cannot be overlooked in matters of political communication (Hansard Society, 2007: 54).
In conclusion, it is very evident that voting behaviour has changed since the 1950’s, mainly impacted by the dealignment of class and partisan dealignment, which has in turn altered greatly the impact social class now has on voting behaviour. This also creates volatility in elections as well as the introduction of smaller parties through the rational choice theory which states that people are more likely to vote for parties that address the issue that would, in turn, benefit them and their families more. The impact of media and the internet on votes today is also greater due to our dependence on media and the influence on our opinions it can create. Therefore despite many factors of voting behaviour being the same, there has been a large shift and the voting behaviours are no longer comparable.