Elaine Shiao
PS 1581: Capstone in International Relations
1 November 2018
Draft #1
South Sudan, or the Republic of South Sudan, with a population of about 13 million people is one of the world’s most under developed countries with many socioeconomic issues, including high illiteracy and mortality rates. Its economy with little infrastructure and GDP per capita of 1,500 dollars further adds to the poverty trap South Sudan is stuck in (CIA World Factbook). Currently, it has the highest score on the America Fund for Peace’s Fragile State Index(). After suffering two civil wars in Sudan things started to look up for the Southern part of Sudan with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed in January 2005 officially ending the Second Sudanese Civil War. The Peace Agreement granted a six-year period of autonomy for the South that would be followed by a referendum on its final status. In 2011, after the referendum vote the South finally gained its independence from the North. However, not long after its independence, South Sudan was engulfed back in violence again as fighting broke out in 2013 stemming from a power struggle between President Kirr and former Vice President Riek Machar. As fighting intensified South Sudan was soon engulfed in another civil war, its third one in 40 years.
As a country that has suffered through two previous civil wars and many socioeconomic issues, South Sudan and its people cannot sustain the violence for much longer. The previous attempts at peace did nothing but induce and appease the two parties and their leaders. The latest peace agreement signed in September of this year has created optimism among its people. However, many people are cautious about this new peace agreement pointing out many similarities between this deal and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed in 2015. On the other side, there are many people rejoicing over this new peace agreement calling it the “final final” deal. In the short term, this peace deal similar to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2015 will help generate peace but the issue for this peace deal is long term durable peace. As head of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan, David Shearer said, “With the signing of this revitalized agreement, we should publically acknowledge it is but one step on the road to peace, but one which lays the foundation for all that follows”. In the long run for durable peace, there has to be more action taken against anyone that reneges on the peace agreement.
Five years of conflict has left South Sudan in a devastated state with over 50,000 people dead and around 2.4 million refugees and asylum seekers many of these refugees spilling into the neighboring countries of Uganda and Sudan. Many of the people still in South Sudan are displaced and around 200,000 people are seeking protection on UN bases. Furthermore, since 2011 there have been around 12,000 UN peacekeepers dispatched to the area through the UN Peacekeeping Mission in South Sudan known as UNMISS. With increasing violence and human rights violations, the conflict turned civil war in South Sudan is a result of many factors some dating back all the way to the first Sudanese Civil War.
The immediate trigger that started that the conflict was the obvious power struggle between President Kirr, an ethnic Dinka, and former Vice President Riek Machar, a ethnic Nuer. Orginally, both were from the same party the Sudan’s People Liberation Movement. However, differences within the party and between the President and Vice President eventually led to the removal of Machar from his position in April 2013. These differences within the party stemmed from Machar, SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amun, and Madam Rebecca Garang, wife of late John Garang announced their intention of running for the position of President of the country (Dessalegn 2017). Kirr went even further and in July fired his whole entire cabinet and dissolved the government. Furthermore, in December 2013, the tensions reached a climax when President Kirr accused Machar and others of attempting a coup d’état, accusations which Machar denied. This led Machar to flee Juba and lead the main opposition group, Sudan’s People Liberation Movement- In Opposition. While the power struggle between Kirr and Machar was the immediate cause for the civil war many other issues were the root cause for the conflict in South Sudan.
An issue that has plagued South Sudan far before its independence in 2011 is corruption and patronage within its government that is governed by elites. Since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005 the government has been plagued with corruption and patronage. In fact, in 2012, President Kirr accused numerous ministers and officials of stealing around 4 billion in state funds (Dessalegn 2017). Furthermore, the patronage system has added to the ethnic divide in South Sudan as patronage systems have developed along ethnic lines (Radon & Logan, 2014).
Another root cause of the conflict is the weak institutional capacity of the state that failed to constrain many of the leaders, including President Kirr. This has lead to ineffective implementation the separation of powers within the government resulting in a lack of checks and balances between the different branches of government. In addition, the government’s lack of commitment towards nation building further stalled the progress and development needed for the country to address the underlying issues that drove conflict (Dessalegn 2017).
Another issue is South Sudan dependence on oil as a primary source of income. As Collier (2008) argued, the natural resource trap, where a country is dependence on one primary commodity as a source of income leads to a higher chance of civil war. Before the start of the conflict South Sudan reliance on oil and other indicators all point to the issue of the resource curse. Furthermore, South Sudan bad use of its oil revenue further drove the deep-seeded issues within South Sudan. The government used the oil revenue to finance its military and security instead of investing that money in public service and infrastructure (Dessalegn 2017).
Lastly, the past two civil wars that South Sudan was involved in further left the country is a state venerable to further conflict. As Collier argued (2008), when a country previously been involved in a civil war or conflict the chance of another conflict occurring increases, therefore, causing the country to be stuck in a conflict trap. These issues led to the eventually violence that broke out in 2013 resulting in the civil war. Furthermore, these deep-seeded issues were a point of contention that caused the numerous failed attempts at peace between the two warring parties and the other factions.
Since the start of the conflict in 2013 there have been 12 attempts at peace. The first attempt at peace occurred on January 2014 when a ceasefire was signed in Ethiopia. Negotiations between the two parties was mediated by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development as well as the African Union, United Nations, China, European Union, United States, United Kingdom and Norway. However, a few days later the rebels accused the government of sabotaging the second round of talks set to start in February. The rebel group threatened to boycott peace talks unless the government realized four political prisoners and the Ugandan troops withdraw. However, when the government refused to give in to rebel demands peace talks fell through. Furthermore, the ceasefire was broken several times by both parties.
The second attempt at peace occurred on May 2014 when again both President Kirr and Machar signed a second ceasefire in Addis Ababa. This agreement was only a one-page document recommitting the two parties to the first ceasefire that was signed. The conditions of the ceasefire were that hostilities end in 24 hours and a more permanent ceasefire would be worked on. On June 2014, both sides finally agreed to come to the table to begin talks on a transitional government and a third ceasefire. However, things did not look optimistic when both sides boycotted the talks after both sides accused each other of violating the earlier ceasefire causing the talks to collapse.
Late in August 2014 Kirr and leaders of neighboring states signed an agreement that essentially laid out a roadmap for a transitional government. However, Machar refused to sign the agreement stating that the agreement tilted in too much favor of Kiir.
In November 2014, both parties again agreed to a ceasefire that they have already broken several times in the past. This time IGAD threatened sanctions if both parties did not come a power-sharing agreement in 15 days. Nevertheless, 24 hours after the ceasefire was signed the ceasefire was broken again as fighting broke out in the North.
In January 2015, there finally seemed to be a glimpse of hope when Kiir and Machar signed the “Areas of Agreement” document detailing a transitional government and in that agreement recommitted themselves to the ceasefire. The talks however, collapsed in March and fighting broke out again.
In August 2015, President Kirr signed the Compromise Peace Agreement previously signed by Machar and mediated by IGAD+. The conditions of the Agreement are that Machar would become the vice president again. The agreement also established the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission that would be in charge of overseeing and monitoring the implementation of the agreement. On April 2016, Machar returned to Juba and was sworn in as vice president again. However, soon after Machar’s return fighting broke out again in July 2016 in the capital. Violence soon escalated and soon over 300 people were killed and thousands of people fleeing. As violence intensified, South Sudan was soon engulfed back in its civil war as Machar announced a renewal of fighting between the two parties and soon fled Juba.
After weeks of intense violence, Kiir and Machar again signed a ceasefire, after which Kiir ordered Machar to return to Juba to go forward with peace talks. However, Machar did not return and was replaced with Taban Deng Gai as lead negotiator, who was also later accepted as acting vice president. Furthermore, after the intense violence in Juba the government and President Kirr received international pressure to put an end to the violence with the deployment of troops under the authorizing of the UN Security Council and the backing of the African Union in August 2016. In September 2016, while in exile Machar called for armed struggle against Kirr reigniting the fighting between the two parties. In addition, Machar also announced that the rebel group would not participate in the workshop organized by JMEC due to revisions that need to be made to the peace agreement.
In May 2017, Kirr declared a unilateral ceasefire. In December 2017, Kirr signed another ceasefire with the rebels.
As the opposition group started to further splinter in 2017 and into 2018 it increasingly weakened the opposition group. Furthermore, by March 2018, nine of the opposition groups, not including SPLM-IO, jointed to form the South Sudan Opposition Alliance to negotiate with the government. On the side of the government there was also splintering among the Dinkas weakening the government and President Kirr’s position. The splintering of the Dinka group also impacted the militia as the military was broken up and many milita members leaving. A large number of the members leaving with former chief of staff Malong Awan.
Furthermore, both sides started to feel increasing international pressure to end the conflict and come back to the table for peace talks. In July 2018, the UN Security Council passed an arms embargo on South Sudan. In addition, Sudan with its investments and reliance on oil transportation from South Sudan brought Kirr and the SPLM-IO to hold talks in Khartoum.
In June 2018, they again signed another ceasefire where they again agreed to form a transitional government, this time for 36 months that would lead to national elections. Additionally, the African Union and IGAD would deploy peacekeepers to South Sudan. The agreement also stipulated that state boundaries would be decided and drawn up by a commission chaired b a non-South Sudanese. There would also five vice presidents one of which would be Machar. The transitional parliament would be made up of 550 seats 332 of which would be given to Kirr’s faction, 128 seats to Machar’s group and the other seats to the other factions.