Focusing on the scientific view on climate change can display a wide range of impacts and opinions. Either pinpointing on radiative and non-radiative forcing and their effects on Arctic ice or weather extremes. Radiative forcing is the main effect of anthropogenic climate change and is increasingly the biggest concern for policy makers and scientists as the climate system relies on specific conditions to function and control other systems such as the hydrological cycle. Figure 1 shows the globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly between 1850 to 2012. It shows an increase in temperature since the industrial era which supports the argument that climate change has increased radiative forcing. figure 1- (IPCC, 2013).
However, the most important impact is the increasing temperatures and their impacts on the thermohaline circulation. The thermohaline circulation is what controls the saline and temperatures of the Earths seas. It will impact countries and places differently such as the stopping the gulf stream in the UK and affecting coral reefs in the Great Barrier reef.
The thermohaline circulation begins at the Arctic where the denser and saltier water sinks and causes deep ocean currents to drive it around the globe. It warms near the tropics and circulates warmer water to the Southern Hemisphere. Northern Europe benefits the most from this extra heat because during the colder winter months the thermohaline circulation the heat is transferred to the atmosphere and thus winters are warmer than expected within Europe (S.Broecker, 1997). However, as a result of climate change the increase In ocean temperatures as a result of less infrared radiation escaping to space means that the thermohaline circulation will have less salty and will be less dense since warmer water has a lower density than colder, causing the thermohaline to slow or stop (National Ocean Service, n.d.). The thermohaline circulation has stopped in the past and there is evidence of this via ice cores in Greenland this therefore means that it is highly likely that the thermohaline could stop again (Univeristy of Illinois at Urbana-champaign, 2004). There are other predictions that the warming of the climate will weaken the circulation (Quere, 1990).
This will affect the UK due to the impact on Jet streams such as the Gulf stream. The Gulf stream regulates UK climate as it controls the warmer ocean currents that reach the UK which begins in the Gulf of Mexico and leads into the north Atlantic (BBC weather, 2018). The Gulf stream is the strongest current and relies on the surface wind and differences in water density (BBC weather, 2018). The gulf stream, much like the Thermohaline circulation, will slow and could stop due to the increase in glacial melting of the Greenland ice sheet as a result of an increase in greenhouse gases. Stopping the Gulf stream could be a direct result of the 20% decrease in flow of cold water in the Faeroe Bank channel between Greenland and Scotland (BBC weather, 2018). This will cause fresh water to mix with salt water and stop the Gulf stream from projecting warm air to the UK because the fresh water is saltier so prevents the salt water sinking and in 2016 Greenland’s ice sheet was at a record low whilst the Arctic lost 23,600 square miles of ice during May 2016 (C.Renee, 2017). There has been recent evidence from fossils of plants that have been preserved in Finland shows that there was abrupt cooling in temperatures of 2-4 degrees as a result of the Gulf stream expansion reduction (Stockholm Univeristy, 2015).
t is highly likely that the
The thermohaline is expected to have the biggest negative affect on coral reefs because coral requires a temperature of 27 degrees to function. Coral reefs are a key ecosystem in terms of human such as fisheries within developing nations where 1 billion people rely on the fish that live within the coral reef ecosystem and some developing nations such as the Maldives rely on the protection of the coral reefs against storms (M.harvey, 2017). The Great Barrier Reef is an example of such a reef that will become increasingly at risk from climate change. 95% of coral within the Great Barrier Reef has been severely bleached since February 2002 (Elvidge, 2004) This bleaching will cause a loss of tourism which is currently allowing the nation to develop and is important to that region as it brings in US$1 billion a year (M.harvey, 2017). In addition to the thermohaline circulation controlling the water temperature and saline quantity it is also influenced by the warming of the climate as it prevents the absorption of carbon dioxide via oceans thus stays on the surface and decreases the ph. Causing the acidification of oceans and bleaching coral within the oceans. This is a growing concern for the scientific community as it provides humans with much needed ecosystems and costal stability.
One saving grace for coastal regions are mangrove trees. This is because mangroves can survive in high saline conditions and also are a key carbon sink which means that they will be able to absorb the carbon dioxide within the atmosphere since they are anaerobic (without oxygen) (Ecological Development Fund, 2016). The fact it is a carbon sink means that it may be able to offset the effects of climate change. However, much like any beautiful and natural thing in this world, humans are actively destroying these for tourism. Occurring in the Caribbean for over the last quarter of a century which has seen a 24% decline in mangrove trees (WIlson, 2017). Humans also indirectly affect the marine ecosystem because of anthropogenic climate change, this will cause sea levels to rise which is an issues due to the weakening of the Thermohaline circulation which could see a change in around 20-25mm a year rise (A.Levermann, 2005, p. et al). Jamaica could experience a collapse of their Port Royal mangrove ecosystem as it cannot migrate which has been seen by its little ability to migrate in the last 300 years (Alleng, 1998).
Therefore, the most important perspective to consider when thinking of climate change is the scientific perspective and the impacts on the thermohaline circulation this is because the thermohaline controls the world’s oceans saline quantity and the temperature of the oceans. This then leads on to the control of the jet streams which are increasingly important in controlling regional climates such as that of the UK since they are fast m. The UK heavily relies on the Gulf stream to control the summer and winter temperatures and also is of great importance in terms of forecasting (Gibbons, 2017). The Thermohaline is not just an important controller of the Earths jet streams but also in terms of contributing to the distribution of marine ecosystems which hold great importance to humans such as the Great Barrier reef in Australia. This is because the Great Barrier Reef is home to the Dugong and the Sea Turtle which as becoming extinct (UNESCO, 2018). This is key for biodiversity within the global oceans and ecosystems. Coral reefs are also great protectors of the coastline as we have seen with the Maldives (M.harvey, 2017).
The scientific argument would argue that the thermohaline circulation is of great importance to the temperature of the world’s oceans which means that any warming will cause the death of the coral since coral needs around 20-32 degrees to survive with clean water that the sunlight can penetrate so with climate changed increasing plankton it will cause the surface of the ocean to be opaque and thus mean less sunlight furthermore increasing the chances of death of coral (Coral Reef Alliance, 2018). However, scientists have discovered that mangroves are halophytes which means they can survive in salty conditions which is good news for coastal countries. Having said that, scientists predict that the ice sheet in Greenland will melt and has decreased by 23,600 square miles sine 2016 (C.Renee, 2017).
Bibliography
A.Levermann, A. M. M. a. S., 2005. Dynamic sea level chnages following chnges in thermohline circulation. climate dynamics, 24(4), pp. 347-54.
Alleng, G., 1998. Histroical developemnt of the Port Royal mangrove wetland, Jamacia. Journal of Coastal research, July, 14(3), pp. 951-959.
Anon., n.d. [Online].
BBC weather, 2018. Gulf stream. [Online]
Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/impact/gulf_stream.shtml
[Accessed decmeber 2018].
C.Renee, 2017. Could climate change shut down the Gulf stream. [Online]
Available at: https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2017/06/06/could-climate-change-shut-down-the-gulf-stream/
[Accessed 31 October 2018].
Coral Reef Alliance, 2018. what do coral reefs need to survive?. [Online]
Available at: https://coral.org/coral-reefs-101/coral-reef-ecology/what-do-coral-reefs-need-to-survive/
[Accessed november 2018].
Ecological Development Fund, 2016. What is a mangrove?. [Online]
Available at: http://www.ecologic.org/actions-issues/about-the-region/what-is-a-mangrove/
[Accessed November 2018].
Elvidge, C. E. a., 2004. Satellite observation of Keppel Islands (Great Barrier reef) 2002 coral bleaching using IKNOS data. s.l.:Springer-Verlag 2004.
Gibbons, B., 2017. Jet strea: How it affetcs Britain's weather. [Online]
Available at: https://weather.com/en-GB/unitedkingdom/weather/news/jet-stream-affects-uk-weather/
[Accessed November 2018].
IPCC, 2013. Sumary for policy makers in climate change 2013: the physical science basis. [Online]
Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WGIAR5_SPM_brochure_en.pdf
[Accessed 31 October 2018].
M.harvey, 2017. Importance of coral reefs. [Online]
Available at: www.panda.org/our_work/oceans/coasts/coral_reef/coral_importance/
[Accessed 31 October 2018].
National Ocean Service, n.d. Currents: effects of climate change. [Online]
Available at: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/tutorial_currents/05conveyor3.html
[Accessed 23 october 2018].
Quere, J. a. C., 1990. Organic Carbon Dioxide uptake In model of century-scale global warming. Science New series , 274(5291), pp. 1340-1350.
S.Broecker, W., 1997. Thermohaline circulation, the Achilles heel of our climate system:will man made co2 upset the current balance?. [Online]
Available at: www.sciencemag.org
[Accessed 13 november 2018].
Stockholm Univeristy, 2015. interuption of gulf stream may lead to large cooling in Europe. [Online]
Available at: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/06/150604084515.htm
[Accessed November 2018].
UNESCO, 2018. Great Barrier reef. [Online]
Available at: https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/154
[Accessed November 2018].
Univeristy of Illinois at Urbana-champaign, 2004. Shutdown of circulation pattern could be disastrous, researcher says. [Online]
Available at: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/12/041219153611.htm
[Accessed November 2018].
WIlson, R., 2017. Impacts of Climate Change on Mangrove Ecosystems in the Coastal and Marine Environments of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Climate change report card: science review, pp. 60-82.