After 60 years of integration through economics to influence political cooperation, the EU has hit its largest controversy yet, Brexit. In this paper, I aim to provide an explanation to the question of what caused Brexit? The history of the UK EU relations provide sufficient background to answering this question. Through exploring public opinion and the motives behind it I seek to answer this question. First is the motives and explanation behind these opinions. Then, evidence for how these public opinions influenced the result of Brexit. The public opinions causing Brexit are composed of three interrelated categories: Immigration, national sovereignty and negative sides of Globalization. The cause of Brexit is the public opinion on immigration, national sovereignty and the negative aspects of globalization.
The UK has always had a questionable relationship with mainland Europe. This is exemplified throughout history, from being the world hegemon to rivalries with France to being the victors of two world wars. Following WWII, in 1951 the original 6 founded the European Coal and Steal Community (ECSC), and the UK decided not to join due to recently nationalizing its coal and steel industries (weforum.org). This is due to the UK not willing to lose national sovereignty. Following the creation of the common market in 1958, the UK applies to join in 1963 again in 1967 but both attempts are vetoed by France’s president Charles de Gaulle (weforum.org). This exclusion along with longstanding sovereignty set the tone for British skepticism towards the EU. In 1973 after the resignation of de Gaulle, the UK is finally allowed to enter the European Economic Community (weforum.org). Then, Margret Thatcher fought the EEC for greater farm subsites for the UK and negotiated the common market under the single European Act in 1987 (weforum.org). Margarete Thatcher set the tone for the UK’s stance on the EU: strictly transactional (Fischer and Renwick). In 1992, the UK negotiates an optout from the single currency as part of the Maastricht treaty (weforum.org) This is a prime example of the UK wanting access to the common market without giving up sovereignty.
In the 21st century, the UK’s main disputes are centered around migration. First, the UK opted out of the Freedom of Movement directive, a seven-year grace period of excluding migrants from the 10 newly added EU member states in 2004. This was done by the Labour party, and brought immigrants form the newly added eastern EU member states. Then in 2015 the European migrant crisis began. Consequently, the large influx of migrant from both these events sparked anti EU feelings across the UK. The large increase of migration from within the EU and the migrant crisis hit home with the British people and the Conservative party was elected into parliament.
These events shaped public opinion on the relationship with the EU. In fear of losing its national sovereignty, The UK has always been against monetary, political and regulatory integration.
When the Labour party returned to office, they promised the referendum to leave the EU. David Cameron, the prime minister at the time promised the referendum to gain support of marginal parties (Fischer and Renwick). Cameron never intended for the referendum to succeed. Ultimately, the referendum would come down to public opinion. Brexit was caused by public opinion of consequences of leaving the EU across three categories: immigration, national sovereignty and being on the losing end of globalization.
The referendum put the choice of Brexit into the public opinion of British citizens. First, the fear of losing Briton’s national identity from recent migration motivated citizens to vote to leave. Next, the fear of the EU’s increased integration through deepening strikes at National Sovereignty. Then, the losers of globalization see Brexit and protectionism as their way out.
Between 2004 and 2017, the amount of foreign-born residents in the UK doubled from 5.3 million to 9.4 million (migrationobservatory). The influence of immigration on voters who supported Brexit can be broken down into two categories: economic and national identity. Leave voters perceive the economic impact of immigration facilitated by the EU hurts wages and competitiveness of national workers and imposes a burden on the welfare state. Leave voters also perceive immigration to have negative effects on the security and culture of the UK. These two categories of immigration influence the public opinion of the vote to leave the EU.
National sovereignty has major influence on public opinion. The UK, has always wanted access to the single market without regulations and infringement on its national laws and policies. the European Journal of Political Economy states “the supremacy of European laws over British laws – as exemplified by the European Court of Justice – was unacceptable to the leave campaign” portrays national sovereignty and the fear of losing it is a major motivation for public opinion to leave the EU.
The last influential aspect on public opinion to leave the EU is globalization and its impact on the losers. The spread of trade, labor, competition and capital that the EU has brought creates reasons for those on the losing side to oppose the UK’s membership. Low skilled and undereducated workers fear the competitiveness the EU brings will undermine their success and therefore oppose it.
The opposition to immigration in the UK has been rising since the 2004 opt out of the Freedom of movement directive. According to a survey by Ipsos-MORI cited in the ACTA politica, in May 2016 Britons thought immigration and race relations were the most important issue facing Brittan at the time (Fischer and Renwick). According to the British election study, over half of the leave voters were strongly opposed to immigration, while just 13% of the remain voters were ( Sage Journal). This shows anti-immigration has a strong correlation with leave voters, and as it was the most important issue facing the UK a month before the election, immigration had a strong influence on the public opinion to leave the EU.
National sovereignty was a major strongpoint that hurt the remain campaign. The funding to the EU played a big role in influencing marginal voters. The Remain campaign found that in marginal voter groups, the “a narrow majority thought that remaining was more risky. They believed that staying in the EU meant continued uncontrolled immigration and spending £350 million a week on the EU, not the NHS” ( Fischer and Renwick). Spending on the EU rather than the UK swung public opinion towards the leave campaign. This is a loss of national sovereignty in that the UK is required to pay into the EU. Also the loss of national sovereignty stretches across many issues that voters feel strongly about. Immigration and EU law over UK law are all areas where the UK must abide by EU law and this is a loss of national sovereignty. “Take back control” was the crucial slogan of the leave campaign, and behind this is control of national sovereignty (Fischer and Renwick).
The economic success the UK once had has suffered due to globalization.Losers of globalization favor protectionism and isolationism as it protects their competitiveness. There is a direct relationship with regions that voted to leave and a decline in prosperity. The losers of globalization also fear immigration, an aspect of globalization. Historical regions associated with the industrial revolution, manufacturing, mining and production overwhelmingly voted to leave. This is exemplified by 65% voting to leave in Lincolnshire, 65% in Yorkshire, and 62% in the South near the coal and steel industries ( On the causes of Brexit). Regions that have recently prospered such as London and Oxford overwhelmingly voted to stay. The increased inequality in the UK due to globalization influenced public opinion and motivated the losers to vote leave.
The cause of Brexit comes down to public opinion. Public opinion on immigration, national sovereignty and globalization are all interrelated. All of these issues support populism, the goal of the common people. Populists prefer mono-culturalism to multiculturalism and therefore oppose immigration (On the cause of Brexit). They prefer national interests over global interests and chose protectionism. August Arnorsson points out that to hold a referendum undermines the democratic process and ignores the minority, and this is populist.
Conclusion
In this paper, I have explored the question of ‘What caused Brexit”? Brexit was caused by the public opinion of UK citizens. Public opinion on immigration was seen as one of the main incentives motivating voters. Public opinion supported the reestablishment of national sovereignty independent of the EU across many topics. Lastly, the negative aspects of globalization exemplified voter to prefer protectionism. The motive behind this public opinion was populism across immigration, national sovereignty and the negative sides of globalization. Populist public opinion is the root element of the UK’s decision to withdraw from the ever closer union.