Summarising The Article “Peak Oil: The Four Stages Of A New Idea”
[By Rory Hammerson]
Introduction:
This essay is a summary of a scientific article by Ugo Bardi which highlights the steps surrounding humanity’s realisation and acceptance of new ideas, surrounding the issue of “peak oil” and relating it to the Hubert Curve of oil production. Even though many specialists predict the peak to be soon, a wide variety of viewpoints and conflicting data creates a lot of uncertainty about when this will be. Due to this uncertainty, this article follows the concept of peak oil by discussing Thomas Huxley’s idea of “four stages of acceptance”. He believed there is a 4 stage pattern of opinion after a new idea is created in which the population acknowledges then accepts the idea.
“ Phase 1: Never heard of it.
Phase 2: It is wrong.
Phase 3: It is right, but irrelevant.
Phase 4: It is what I had been saying all along.”
Individual viewpoints are spread over all stages but the population as a whole are proposed to follow each stage in order. By offering statistics and different opinions, the article tries to offer discussion surrounding either side of the factors contributing to “peak oil” and the alternating views of experts versus the views of the public. By giving varied opinions of how such a situation could morph the economic climate of the current and future populations, the article is able to explain the impact peak oil will have on us and generations to come.
Hubert Curves:
In 1956 Hubert proposed the concept that oil production will rise, hit a maximum/peak, and then will decrease towards zero; he suggested that such changes will follow an almost symmetrical bell-shaped curve (Hubert’s curve). As a global population we are currently still in the growth phase although individual countries’ Hubert curves may already be declining. Global oil production initially increased somewhat exponentially as the widely-used fossil fuel was at first extremely abundant and therefore somewhat cheap to extract (relative to the price it was selling at) – this attracts more investment into producing and researching technologies to produce such hydrocarbons. Due to this, production will increase. The availability of high-quality oil that is easy to extract starts to decline as it is produced and production costs will rise as well as the need to extract lower quality resources from reservoirs. The level of investment cannot continue to rise at the same pace of these increasing costs and eventually what is termed “Hubert’s peak” (the peak of the oil production curve) will be seen. Such costs are discussed based on Energy Return On Energy Investment (EROEI) as this takes into account monetary costs as well as the net extraction of energy.
Phase 1: Never Heard Of It
Firstly, the new idea will begin to spread. Currently, peak oil will have been heard by loads of people; it is suggested that pretty much everyone in the energy industry will have encountered it at some point although the majority of the public will not have heard of it just yet. It is searched for on google much less frequently than ‘Hollywood’, ‘terrorism’ and other types of news although the rate of searches is increasing a vast amount yearly.
Phase 2: It Is Wrong
Having faced the idea of a peak in oil production that will thereafter decrease, the public and specialists will react by disregarding the theory or suggesting that data inputs are invalid. The curve can be mathematically manipulated to estimate global oil production and similarities to geological estimates suggest the validity of the curve. Confirming the shape of such an oil production curve can also be done by looking at previous oil discovery curves as it must be discovered before it is produced – a peak in the 1960’s is seen, suggesting a peak in the near future of the oil production curve.
Some of the public may disagree with the theory due to incomplete information of how oil is extracted; if they do not understand the increasing difficulty and cost of producing lower-quality oil in more inaccessible places (lower EROEI), they may believe it is like a keg of beer and can be easily extracted until the point at which it runs out. Specialists may disagree with the theory as historical data in certain countries show oil production curves that follow different shapes such as double peaks and that these can sometimes be correlated with political/war related events in which the Hubert curve does not take into account as we cannot predict such events.
Specialists and the public alike may argue that there will be no peak; following the model of the ‘resource pyramid’. This model suggests that as the peak draws close, prices will increase, causing an increase in discovery and production investments, causing an increase in the amount of oil put on the market. On the other hand, people may argue that a peak is inevitable due to the non-renewable nature of oil and that however this may be much further in the future than expected as there is still vast amounts of hydrocarbons in the ground. Many critics of the theory do not deny it will peak at some point.
Phase 3: It is true but irrelevant
Those that accept the theory may disregard it nonetheless. The issue discussed refers to the smooth transition to renewable resources, resulting in little effect to the economic climate of the world due to depleting oil production levels; therefore mitigating negative consequences of peak oil. As renewables begin to grow and the level of oil use shrinks, people may consider peak oil to be irrelevant to us as can be easily replaced. This, however, may be unrealistic as if the peak is due to occur in the near future, technological advancements may not be fast enough to produce renewable energy sources that can create sufficient energy to cover the decrease in energy coming from oil. The article talks about nuclear energy and how current technology cannot produce a high enough EROEI to have a smooth transition from oil. It also talks about other types of renewable energy such as wind and photovoltaics which may have a desirable EROEI which is only due to increase with technological improvements however there are other issues such as storing the energy from renewables and that the current level of energy produced from such renewable energy sources is insufficient to cater for the whole population.
Phase 4: It is what we had been saying all along
A global oil peak closely resembled what happened in the USA in the late 1960’s. Hubert’s prediction for peak oil production in the USA was coming close and experts began to discuss it, although political and war-related events almost excluded it from the media. In 1971, the USA, a major contributor to global oil production at the time, saw a peak in oil extraction. The levels of production began to decrease. On the other hand, since then, increased investment and discovery of new technology – such as the improvement of fracking causing production levels to increase again in the USA circa 2009[1]– suggests global peak oil could be a long time away. This situation represents a historical event in which the consensus was to ignore/not care about the impending issue until it had appeared it had already happened, people then began to worry!
Conclusion:
Throughout our population, different people – e.g specialists versus the general population – interpret the theory of peak oil differently and so their viewpoints lie somewhere between the 4 phases of acceptance of a new idea. The distribution of viewpoints varies greatly due to reading/hearing different information and is constantly changing. While it is impossible to accurately predict peak oil, previous historical events and records suggest that the Hubert Curve is somewhat realistic as has applied to certain countries previously. As time has past, and continues to pass, more and more people are researching and hearing about peak oil as it becomes an increasingly relevant topic. This increased attention will ensure that more money and time will be put into ensuring its delay and to promoting alternate energy sources so that the world can continue to thrive with sufficient energy once oil production begins to decrease. While the exact date of peak oil cannot realistically be estimated, we can say with confidence that it will happen at some point in the future.