Out of all the wide range of chemicals that underpin the modern world, none are more controversial than fossil fuels — coal, crude oil and natural gas. They all are composed of hydrocarbons, molecules consisting of purely hydrogen and carbon. These fuels account for 80 percent of the energy worldwide and no single country is able to sustain itself without them. Various countries have forged their economies and political power around them, namely Russia and numerous countries in the Middle East. So it will be a tremendous shock when the supply starts to deteriorate to expensively low reserves.
On the other hand, the looming threat of climate change from the emission of CO2 only signifies greater urgency for alternative fuels. The only reasonable course of action is to remove hydrocarbons from energy production. We have made good strides in alternative fuels, but they are far from ideal — despite being renewable, biofuels still emit CO2, hydrogen is extremely problematic to store in its natural gaseous state, and some electricity is still dependent on fossil fuels for its production. Nuclear power could be the glimmer of hope due to its superior energy content, but
Oil Production since 1975 to 2015 in Million tonnes3 when a disaster occurs because of human error, the consequences for the surrounding environment could be catastrophic.
Clearly, hydrocarbons will inevitably be retired. They will deplete not because of any economic or political challenges, but simply because we do not have enough of them. So how will the world cope with such a major change? What will the future look like without hydrocarbons?
As of 2015, fossil fuels supplied about 86 percent of the world's energy demands. 15 years ago, the number was 97 percent and now the world is seeing unprecedented changes in the energy market in terms of both consumption and production. Energy consumption has skyrocketed by 300 percent from the 1930s, while production has seen a rise of demand for renewable energy. With that in mind, coal has increased in consumption by 64 percent from 2000 to 2014 and crude oil now accounts for 54.1 percent of the global energy consumption and the demand for it continues to grow.
Why is that? The underlying reason is mostly in the cost of energy production. Burning coal in existing power plants is simply cheaper than investing into research and development of new sources of energy. And living in a mostly capitalistic world, most companies are choosing lower cost than sustainability. Still, using hydrocarbons for energy production has two main problems: global warming and remaining reserves.
Global warming and climate is widely considered as one of the biggest problems facing humanity nowadays. Hydrocarbons are the main cause of global warming and the destruction of ozone layers. As per remaining reserves, according to the report of BP, we only have 50 years worth of crude oil reserves left. So one way or another — the hunt for renewable energy has to start now.
The negative effects of hydrocarbons can be mitigated by switching to alternative fuels, such as wind, solar or tidal. The driving force behind the desirability of these alternatives is that they are renewable, meaning more fuel can be made. Different fuels achieve this in different ways: biodiesel is initially derived from plants, geothermal comes from continuous radioactive processes within the planet and hydroelectric essentially uses the Earth’s gravity in the form of falling water. The property of renewability is certainly favourable for use as fuels – it is estimated that 19.2 percent of the energy
Consumed power, by energy source5 consumed worldwide in 2014 was produced from renewable sources.
The main problem of these fuels is reliability: how can you be sure the wind will be consistent for wind power? How can you be sure that it will be sunny for at least 5 days a week for solar power to be a realistic option?
Nuclear power is a bit of a black sheep in the list of alternatives, given that it relies on highly radioactive materials, such as Uranium-235 and Plutonium-239, and it is non-renewable. These fuels are extremely problematic to store, and the radioactive products from the fission of these fuels are even more troublesome. There is a reason why we use this controversial fuel — nuclear energy has the largest energy content out of the fuels we have — the amount of nuclear energy equivalent to 1 kg of natural uranium is enough to power a 100 W lightbulb for 182 years.
So what will happen in a world without hydrocarbons?
Let us imagine that you are driving a car and it rapidly stops on the road due to running out of fuel; in the night, darkness is approaching as the thermal electricity power-plant is no longer working; the food will be spoiled easily on the warm temperature day because the refrigerator needs chlorofluorocarbons. Playing a major role in energy resources, hydrocarbons are widely used in every field no matter it is a manufacturing industry, design offices or a M&S food hall. The uses of hydrocarbons will increase — the oil and fuel are rising by an average rate of 1.6 percent. By 2026, the world will be consuming 16.3 billion tons of fuel, increasing from the current figure of 10.7 billion tons. The demand is hard to be predicted, but it would rise steadily in the future as long as the population grows and the economy is becoming more globalised — more products are being assembled. Even if there would be no shortage of hydrocarbons in the foreseeable future, the growth of demand would lead to even more pollution. Pollution comes from the process when hydrocarbons burn to produce energy and when the consumed products are being thrown away.
Projected use of various energy sources8 Thinking of the long term development for crude oil and natural gas or the alternative energy sources, the energy of the future needs to be affordable, renewable and sustainable. The action needs to come from both the governments and individuals across the globe.
Every progress currently made, big or small, for the benefit of humankind will cease. Decades or even centuries of human scientific advances will start receding as if time would be reversed and the world would be hit by a crisis worse than that of The Great Depression. Major oil companies will announce their vast oil reserves in hopes of suppressing panic. However, as weeks would pass, anarchy and riots would arise and the once civilised society will crumble into complete chaos, forcing governments across the globe to enforce martial law. What was once a necessity embedded deeply into our daily lives ranging from fossil fuel-based power plants, petrol-powered cars to shampoos, toothpaste, plastic products and even clothes will be obsolete without any alternatives. Energy would become a luxury and all the painstaking effort which went into research and development, of our modern gadgets we possess will go to waste. A dystopian world like the one described in the novel Mad Max would become our new cruel reality. However, “The Theory of Peak Oil” published by geologist M. King Hubbert in 1956, which theorised the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which is expected to enter terminal decline has put an emphasis on renewable energy in the 20th century. Moreover, nuclear energy now provides more than 10% of the world’s electricity from approximately 450 power reactors. In the years to come, the attention placed on the search of hydrocarbon alternatives will only grow exponentially and hopefully humanity will prevail with a greener and more sustainable world.
Projected oil reserves on the planet12