Mansha Palliyath
Ap Hug
Economic status Report
With a population of 190.9 million, located on the Gulf of Guinea, Nigeria is predicted to grow substantially in the next few years,become the fourth most populous country by 2050 and grow with the rise of oil production and improvement in infrastructure investments. Their current GDP is $375,770 and is estimated to increase 2.6% in 2019 and 3.0% in 2020.
Nigeria is in stage two of the DTM model and its early expanding population with high birth rates and low death rates as shown in the population pyramid and the base will likely grow due to factors such as improved transportation,health care, and improved food production and storage. (FOCUS ECONOMIC, “Nigeria Economic Outlook”).
Agriculture also plays a large role in Nigeria’s economy with the exchange of foreign earnings and the exportation of products such as il,timber,cotton, and cocoa. The discovery of large quantities of oil, that equals to over 300 billion dollars, improved the economy greatly and occupies 80% of the budget. Nigeria also has large mineral sources such as gold, limestone and coal.
Nigeria’s environmental advantages and natural resources are its main strength and sustains its large oil and gas business. Although since it is an developing country it lacks financial resources which holds their productivity, and the government is unable to give loans to everyone. Nigeria’s large foreign exchange and relations are seen as a main opportunity and can improve their economy by globalizing their goods,services,even employment.Nigeria faces internal threats with high rates of crime,frauds and scamming, this corruption effects the local businesses and causes them to move to other countries.(Babalola, Yisaw Abiodun, “SWOT Analysis of Nigerian Business Environment”).
Nigeria is the fastest growing economies in the world. This growth has been strenuous particularly in trade and agriculture, which have brang welfare benefits for many Nigerians. Nigeria’s dependency ratio has lowered from 87.9 ratio in 2010 and 88.2 in 2015. However, improvements in social welfare have been much slower than would be expected. Poverty and job creation have not kept a rate with population growth implying social calamity for many Nigerians. Progress towards many of the growth goals has been slow, the country has been ranked 153 out of 186 countries in 2013 United Nations Human Development Index.( UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM, “2013 Human Development Report”) The most obvious reason for the disapirites between economic growth and most welfare indicators in Nigeria is Lagos State. Lagos State is experiencing exceptionally rapid growth, and has reduced their poverty levels from 44% of the population to 23% between 2004 and 2010. At the same time, poverty increased during this period in half of Nigeria States. It is crucial for Nigeria to find a solution to unlock rapid growth and job creation in a larger part of the country, as well increase education, health, and other social services to allow its citizens to find employment in the emerging growth poles.( U.S NEWS, “Tracking Poverty in Nigeria”)
Demographic transition began in the 18th century in developed countries and still is present , but in less developed countries, this demographic transition started late but was present in earlier stages. However incurable diseases, such as water−borne bacteria, malaria, polio, HIV/AIDS and Ebola, have become the main reason of mortality in countries like Malawi, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Sudan and Nigeria. Nigeria is experiencing stages two and three of demographic transition process. The characteristics of these two stages is that there is an increasingly rapid rise in population growth because of the gap between child deaths and child births grow wider. The reason for population growth in the rural areas is, first, improvement in the food supply by higher yields from modernized agricultural practices and government policies and better transportation of these agricultural yields. The second reason is that progress being made iI health and providing healthcare in the rural areas reduce the under-five mortality and epidemic of communicable diseases, which includes mortality rates of children and a growing population in the rural areas. These reasons affect Nigeria positivity. ( INDEX MUNDI, “ Nigeria Demographic Profile 2018”).
With the increasing population (186.0 million) in the rural areas, the age structure (15-24 years) of this population becomes increasingly active and moves to the working age population. However, the positive transition in Nigeria is considered by the decline of child death as a result of parents seeing they do not need children. This increases urbanization and changes the moral values of fertility and the value of children in rural society, that is, urban living, which increases the cost of dependent children to a family. There are also changes in the age structure of the population of the rural areas, which reduces the dependency on youth resulting in aging. In this period between the decline in youth dependency and rise in old age dependency, there is a demographic window of opportunity that can potentially produce economic growth through an increase in the ratio of working age to dependent population, hence the demographic dividend of the population of the rural areas in Nigeria. ( WORLD'S POPULATION REVIEW,” Nigeria Population 2018”)
Nigeria can be classified as a Stage 3 in Rostow's Modernization Model and Nigeria is an LDC. Nigeria can be classified as a Stage 3 because of its biggest industries, such as footwear, chemicals, cement and other construction materials, printing, ceramics, and textiles. In addition, Nigeria's ocean border allows it to be able to easily trade its products from these industries with other countries around the world. However, even though it may seem like Nigeria could possibly be classified as a Stage 4, it can't due to its poor health, wealth, and education indicators, including a low life expectancy, a low literacy rate, and a low GDP country rank. ( FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA, “ Economic Development”)
In addition to Nigeria’s improvement economically and politically a few advancements have occurred culturally and socially such as welfare services put in place and acts that provide workers security in case of injuries. A negative is the sexism and unequal rights. Women are forced to be dependent on men and their husbands. For example women are still required to get their husband’s permission in order to get legal documents and a passport.
In Sharia courts the woman's testimony is seen as less important than the men. Also there are many widespread cases of domestic violence which is legal under the law. (“Nigeria-Social Development”).
In a recent study by MGI , it is predicted over the next 15 years , Nigeria could become one of the major global economies,and is already the 26th largest economy in the world. Nigeria Could expand over 6% annually. In order to grow and establish economic stability , Nigeria’s leaders must put reforms in to decrease the poverty by raising incomes and making healthcare and transportation more efficiently. With these crucial steps Nigeria can achieve security and success in the near future.