California, District 45, Katie Porter (D) v. Mimi Walters (R)
Data & Analysis
Candidate Appeal Based on Demographics
Race: 55.5% White, 1.4% black, 20.9% Asian, 18.4% Hispanic.
Age: Median age is 38.8, and approximately 22% of people qualified to vote are over 65.
Gender: 58.1% female, 48.9% male. However, both candidates are female so it is unlikely that gender will greatly influence voting decision in this district.
Income/Class: Median household income 102k, placing this district at upper middle class. Walters targets ‘hard working americans’ and believes in the growth of businesses. Porter targets those below the median or just at the median and appeals to those who see that even the median income can still be challenging to live off of in CA.
Minority voters will likely vote for Porter, and they make up 40% of possible eligible voters. Historically, minorities strongly tend to vote democrat. Porter appeals to the people who make the median income or slightly below, which is the majority of families, while Walters appeals to those who make the mean income, which is higher with fewer people. Porter advocates for affordable health care, which is a strong concern in this district.Gender will not be a significantly influencing factor because both candidates are female, and although men might be more likely to vote republican it will not be significant given the number that is likely to vote for Porter. The median age is 38.8 so the majority of people are younger voters who will tend to vote democrat, and only 22% of the population is over 65, of which many will vote republican but once again not a significant amount.
Campaign Finances: Where did the money come from and where did it go?
Porter $5,028,843, Walters $3,895,290. Walters has a significantly smaller amount of funding and will be less able to make herself known to potential voters/ promote her campaign as well as Porter will be able to. $707,000 on mail and digital ads for Porter and against Walters. $3.1 million on television advertising in Los Angeles area. $43 million on television advertisements in 2018.
Because Porter has more campaign money raised, she can use it to attract prospective voters better. Lots of money is being spent on advertisements and propaganda that will make her well known to people who will be likely to vote for her. Even if she can’t sway voters from the other party, her use of propaganda will increase democratic voter turnout.
Ease of Voting and Voter Turnout
California is one of the easiest states to vote. Lack of excuse absentee voting, no ID required, 4 weeks early voting.
Ease of voting will increase voter turnout, which will lead to more democratic votes.
Party Alignment
3 Percentage points more republican than the national average. Estimates suggest that this district is a toss up or leans slightly right. However, in 2016 this republican leaning district voted majority for Hillary Clinton, which suggests that many may not vote party lines.
This is a republican district, which puts Porter at a disadvantage. However, past elections have shown that not everyone votes party lines, so people in this district are more likely to vote based on candidate appeal, and the other factors.
Poll Trends
71.4% Porter, 28.6% Walters
Others predict 2 in 3 Porter win, 1 in 3 Walters win
The NY Times gives Porter a 5% advantage on Walters
Many official and unofficial polls predict that Porter will win (even surveys sponsored by Walters’ campaign)
Michigan, District 8, Elissa Slotkin (D) v. Mike Bishop (R)
Data & Analysis
Candidate Appeal Based on Demographics
Race: 86.4% White, 5.6% Black, 3.8% Asian.
Age: 24% over 65, median age 38.4.
Gender: 50.6% female, 49.4% male. Females might be slightly more prone to vote for Slotkin.
Income/Class: Median household income 71k/year, generally middle class population. 6.5% of people below poverty line. Bishop proposes to lower taxes for small businesses which might be appealing for some. Slotkin: “we need to make sure that minimum wage is a living wage, that you can actually live outside of poverty when you're working 40 hours a week for a family” more precise plan of action, potentially more appealing.
Many of the younger voters and minority voters will vote for Slotkin. Females, which are the slight majority of voters, will tend to vote for Slotkin. Slotkin also appeals to the families and businesses that are at or below the median household income, which is slightly more than half the population. While Bishop proposes to provide tax cuts to small businesses, Slotkin has a more precise plan of raising the minimum wage and making the minimum wage liveable. For the voters who are not minorities or younger, her economic policies will attract a large amount of voters based on the income demographic.
Campaign Finances: Where did the money come from and where did it go?
Bishop raise 3.1 mil spend 2.4 mil, Slotkin raise 6.2 mil spend 5.2 mil. 67K received from Michigan State University. From individuals, Bishop received 97K, Slotkin received 796K.
Slotkin got a lot of financial support from individuals during her campaign. This suggests that many favor Slotkin if they are willing to contribute. Because she has more money to spend, she will be raising awareness of her policies and ideas to voters that either were not planning to vote for her and now might, or voters that were not planning to vote at all and now might. In addition, the quality and quantity of her use of propaganda is likely greater than that of Bishop. Because she is backed financially by Michigan State University, she will be getting votes from a large number of college-age voters.
Ease of Voting and Voter Turnout
In person voting is the norm. You need to have a legitimate medical or age related excuse to vote absentee. Voting hours are 7am to 8pm. Voter registration takes 30 days.
Michigan makes it mildly difficult to vote. For those who are unable to make it to the polls or simply do not want to, absentee voting is inconvenient and often inapplicable. Those who forget to register may not make the 30 day deadline. However, it is easy to vote for those who have already registered and are willing to go to the polls. The ease of voting in this race favors neither candidate.
Party Alignment
4 percentage points more republican than national average. In the primaries, more people voted democrat than did republican. Bishop 47% approval rating.
Mike Bishop is incumbent, so it may increase voter turnout. Republicans who don’t like him may vote for Slotkin if they believe she is an agreeable candidate. People who loved Bishop will most definitely vote for him again. Bishop’s 47% approval rating means that there are going to be a lot of Republicans that may cross party lines to vote against him. Even though Bishop has the advantage in a red district, Slotkin’s appeal to the masses may sway some voters over party lines.
Poll Trends
51.8% Slotkin win, 48.2% Bishop
Many polls show that Slotkin will win by an extremely close margin. Polls combining hundreds of factors show Slotkin winning, while those with just a few generally show Bishop winning due to the fact that he is incumbent and in a red district. Polls are not a deciding factor in this race, but give a relatively good indication of a possible outcome when looking at way more factors than we are in this project.
California, District 25, Katie Hill (D) v Stephen Knight (R)
Data & Analysis:
Candidate Appeal Based on Demographics
Race: White 65.5%, Black 8.3%, Asian 9.1%, Other 17.1. Hispanic or Latino 32.7%. This district is predominantly white and both candidates are also white, so I do not think there will be much of a difference here.
Age: The population of District 25 is 720,316, and the median age of all of the people is 36 years old. The largest age group in this district is 5-19 years old. I think because this area is predominantly young they are going to want Katie Hill who is only 30 years old. Stephen Knight is 51 and is a generation above the younger candidate.
Gender: 49.9% Male and 50.1% Female. There is no huge imbalance between the genders but I believe that a lot of females will vote for Katie Hill.
Income/Class: Median household income is $68,551. Knight is advocating for a reduction in tax rates which might help buying houses. On the other hand, Hill also wants to reconstruct the tax code.
Overall, the demographics lean towards Democrat, Katie Hill. The race aspect does not affect her voting much but age does. A lot of the current population is an average of 36 years old, therefore they will most likely relate to the candidate that is near there same age. And for the gender many woman in the community will vote her in to get equality standards pushed into the society.
Campaign Finances: Where did the money come from and where did it go?
Katie Hill has raised more than three times as much money, but has only spent about 80% of it while Knight spent almost it all. And in cash in hand, Hill has a million dollars more than Knight.
Katie Hill is more financially approved by voters. Hill will look more balanced and prepared because she has lots of money saved up and she is very successful.
Party Alignment
The district is almost completely 50/50 for party registration, but they are ever so slightly more republican. I think people are gonna vote more for Hill though because of her outstanding credentials.
Even though Hill is a democrat, she does not swing far left and has very modest view points. If she gets voted in, she will represent the whole district as a whole and not only focus on her party alignment. On the other hand, Knight is the incumbent which might persuade a lot of the votes to his side. Yet, during his last serving there were no outstanding acts that will make him stand out to the public.
Ease of Voting and Voter Turnout
In California it is really easy to vote. There is more than 4 weeks of early voting and no ID is required. Also there is no excuse to not fill out an absentee ballot.
By California making the voting experience so simple it increases the amount of people voting. Also in a way this ease of voting from California shows how it is a good thing about the state being mainly Democratic. Because in countries like Alabama, it is a lot harder to vote and there are very strict rules.
Polling Trends and Previous Voting Behavior
In 2016, Hillary Clinton won in this area. This area has been mainly Republican since 1993. District 25 now has more registered Democrats than Republicans.
A lot of people in this district are leaning towards the Democrats, not only because it is majority in the state, but also because the blue wave is coming up. The state is trying to back away from current president, Donald Trump, by becoming prominently Democrat.
California, District 48, Harley Rouda (D) v. Dana Rohrabacher (R)
Data & Analysis:
Candidate Appeal Based on Demographics
Race: 58.6% White; 0.9% Black; 17.5% Asian; 19.9% Hispanic; 3.1% other. The population in this district is predominantly white. Also both candidates are white, so I do not think this criteria is going to affect the outcome of this race.
Age: In this district there are 702,906 people, and 162,521 are 40-54 years old. This group is the largest, then 25-39 year olds. These age groups are probably going to vote for Rouda because they have had Rohrabacher for the last several years and probably want to change it up. And Rouda even mentions in his propaganda that this district needs a new leader.
Gender: 49.4% Male and 50.6% Female. The split between Men and Women are pretty much equal and they also would not affect the votes because both candidates are Male.
Income/Class: Median household income is $76,077. Rohrabacher has zero outlooks on taxes and houses. Rouda is a successful businessman and wants to bring loyalty into the communities.
Minority voters will tend to vote for the democratic candidate. In addition, the largest group able to vote is also the group most likely to vote democrat. The gender factor doesn’t really make a huge impact because neither candidate has incredibly drastic views on women’s rights. For income, Rouda has experience in economics and is an appealing candidate because he has the knowledge to change things according to what the voters want. Rouda prominently dominates all of these criteria factors for the voting. Rouda just has lots of different outlooks for the people and acts like he has a plan for the future. While Rohrabacher, from my research, has not made many plans or advancements for the future of the area.
Campaign Finances: Where did the money come from and where did it go?
Rouda 6.1mil
Rohrabacher 2.4 mil
Rouda has triple the amount of money raised and spent. This will put Rouda big time in the lead, because if he can show that he knows how to get money and spend it all well then he gets voter attention. The money for his campaign shows all of the mass amount of effort and popularity he has gotten from others in the society of District 48. Also Rouda has about double the amount of cash on hand which shows that he knows how to handle his finance in politics and his own personal life. This shows that Rouda could especially good in politics because he has a successful life so far.
Party Alignment
In DIstrict 48, is slightly more Republican than Democrat. It is the 211th most Republican District.
This should leave the citizens to go more towards Dana Rohrabacher because of his party. But his close ties to Trump and scandal with Russian spies might keep Harley in the lead. Also Rouda used to be a Republican but switched because of the socially conservative policies are president Donald Trump. This also gives Rouda an advantage because he will support both parties and appeal to members of both parties no matter which one he is currently affiliated with.
Ease of Voting and Voter Turnout
In California it is really easy to vote. There is more than 4 weeks of early voting and no ID is required. Also there is no excuse to not fill out an absentee ballot.
Historically, states with more voting restrictions tend to vote red. Because it is so easy to vote in California, there will be more democratic voters.
Polling Trends and Previous Voting Behavior
This area was very Republican but during the 2016 election Hillary won by 2 points.
58% Rouda win
42% Rohrabacher win
I believe a lot of people in this district are leaning towards the Democrats, not only because it is majority in the state, but also because the blue wave is coming up. The state is trying to back away from current president, Donald Trump, by becoming prominently Democrat. Also if this area does not Donald Trump then they definity will not want to vote for Rohrabacher because he has close ties to the president. Trends in polls indicate that Rouda has consistently held a fairly large lead over Rohrabacher.
California, District 10, Josh Harder (D) v. Jeff Denham (R)
Data & Analysis:
Candidate Appeal Based on Demographics:
Race: 75.2% White, 6.3% Asian, 3.9% Black, 1.0% Native Am
Age: Median age is 34.6 and 17% are over 65
Gender: 50.3% Male 49.7% Female
Income/Class: Median Household Income is $63,223 with 12.9% under the poverty line
This district is very young, which indicates a favoring of the democratic candidate. Of the 75% white, it is difficult to determine which way they will vote, but of the 25% minority most will vote democrat. Harder emphasizes fair and humane immigration reform, which will appeal to many, while Denham’s harsher views on immigration will make him lose favor with the non-white voters in this district. Both candidates are male with no emphasis on women’s rights as a part of their campaign so the gender demographic will have little impact. For income, the economic policies of Harder will be preferred because he wants to combat poverty by addressing the housing crisis, have a liveable minimum wage, create jobs, and increase education.
Campaign Spending
Jeff Denham raised $4,117,126 for his campaign which is obviously a lot of money, but is much less compared to Josh Harder’s $6,091,868 raised. With Josh Harder’s $2 million more, he has an opening for the race.
The campaign funds help spread the candidates policies as well as their name which in an election without a party lean can be the difference between winning and losing. Josh Harder has a big advantage here because in a toss-up election the campaigning has a major impact to the outcome of the election. In addition, Harder’s 2 million more indicated voter approval, because a majority of his funding came from individual contributions.
Party Alignment
This district is within 1 percent of the national average, and is therefore referred to as even.
California’s district ten doesn’t have a majority towards a single party. The voter registration in this district is relatively equal. There are a large number of independent registered voters, so their vote will most likely decide who will win.This makes every other aspect of their campaign more important because whether they are Democrat or Republican means less in this election.
Ease of Voting and Voter Turnout
California is a very easy state to vote in. No voter ID is required on the day of the election and permits no excuse early voting in person.
Harder endorsed by Obama
Similar to California 48, more democratic votes are counted in states that don’t have many strict regulations that make voting difficult. Due to Obama’s endorsement of Harder, there will be a slight increase in turnout.
Poll Trends
Since the beginning of their campaigns polls have showed a nearly ¾ advantage to Josh Harder that have steadily increased to 7/9 majority of his chance of winning the election. FiveThirtyEight finds that Harder is likely to win the election by about 5% of the vote.
Josh Harder’s chances of winning steadily increased over time which most likely means he campaigned sufficiently and voters liked his policy more than Jeff Denham’s. The consistency of the polls means that there is little doubt about Harder’s victory.
New York, District 19, Antonio Delgado (D) v. John Faso (R)
Data & Analysis:
Candidate Appeal Based on Demographics
Race: 89.7% White, 4.2% Black, 1.5% Asian
Age: Median Age is 44.9. 20% above 65.
Gender: 50.3% Male 49.7% Female
Income/Class: Median Household Income is $61,662. Mean household income is $80,914.
This is a fairly old, white district which indicates a strong lean right, and favors Faso. The gender of voters will likely not be of huge importance, although Delgado has shown support for women’s rights and is pro-choice, which will appeal to many democratic female voters and may give him a slight advantage. In addition, Delgado has economic positions that favor the middle working class, closer to the median household income, as opposed to Faso whose policies appeal to those more around the mean household income. Overall demographics appeal partly to Delgado and partly to Faso, with a slight favor to Delgado because of his economic policies.
Campaign Finances: Where did the money come from and where did it go?
Faso 3.6 million
Delgado 7.8 million
Delgado has received much more voter support as is evident in his 4 million dollar lead on Faso. Groups unassociated with the campaign have released advertisements for both sides. Many advertisements against Delgado bring up his brief rap hobby as a young adult, saying that his actions were inappropriate and his words offensive. These sort of targeted ads meant to cause dislike of another candidate could either work fantastically, or be accused of being racist and backfire spectacularly. In terms of finances alone, the amount raised by Delgado indicates that he has more voter support.
Party Alignment
Majority registered independent
2 points more republican than national average
Although the district is generally republican, this district is has almost the largest percentage of unaffiliated voters. This means that there is a massive amount of potential for Delgado to sway right leaning or uncertain voters. For party alignment, although Faso is favored as a republican, this alone gives no indication about the possible outcome of the race because there are so many independent voters.
Ease of Voting and Voter Turnout
No early voting
Excuse required for absentee voting
No ID required
No time off work to vote
It is slightly tedious to vote in this state. If you do not have an excuse to vote absentee and you can’t make it to the polls on the one day it is open, you will not be voting. For many people, especially people who are working full time and long hours, voting may not be enough of a priority. In New York, there is no requirement that businesses give you time off to vote. Many people who could vote thus will not vote, just because of inconvenience. This will likely favor Faso.
Polling Trends
Monmouth University polls from Oct. 30 predict Delgado at +2, +8, and +5
AARP shows Delgado leading 43% to 36%
Prediction 61.3% Delgado and 38.7% Faso win
Multiple polls predict that Delgado will win in this election. The average of many polls places Delgado at +1.3 points and expert predictions put him at +1.9. Polls have also shown consistency in the prediction of Delgado winning.
New Mexico District 2, Yvette Herrell (R) v. Xochitl Torres Small (D)
Data & Analysis:
Candidate Appeal Based on Demographics
Race: 63.0% White, 2.6% Black, 0.6% Asian, 27.3% Hispanic, 5.5% Native
American, 1.0% other. Although the majority of the population is white, neither the the candidates are white, and there are a bit less than half as many Hispanics as White residents. (2013 census).
Age: The average age is 37.2 in this state.
Gender: 50.3% Male, and 49.7% Female. The representation of each gender is almost equal in the 2nd district.
Income/Class: Median household income is $29,269, since this is a lower-income district, Torres Small with have an advantage. In her campaign, she advocates for more affordable healthcare, an increase in funding towards public schools, lowering the price of prescription drugs, and help local governments cooperate better with farmers and developers.
Just based of this data, Torres Small woud have an advantage since she advocates for change that would benefit this community. Torres Small’s campaign clearly advocates for more affordable healthcare, an increase in funding towards public schools, lowering the price of prescription drugs, and help local governments cooperate better with farmers and developers. There goals greatly appeal to this district because it is lower income and has a large amount of industrial industry. Herrell is 54 years old, while Torres Small is 33. Since Torres Small is around the age of the average person in this district, so she may appeal to the younger citizens, since there are more young people than old.
Campaign Finances: Where did the money come from and where did it go?
Torres Small has raised $3,098,000 in individual contributions, (thats on the books), while Herrell has raised $998,000, which dwarfs the amount that Torres Small has gained. This could significantly expand Torres’ campaigning opportunities. Torres Smalls must gain more money to push the campaign since new Mexico’s 2nd district has a Republican majority. A significant number to the the contributions are form ActBlue, which raises money for candidates over the internet. Terres Small also has a number of smaller contributions from local government officials, and from several labor union. Torres Small spent $2,788,545 toward tv commercials, radio ads, billboards, and mailer ads. Herrell has many contricputions from the House of Freedom Fund, as well as smaller contributions from businesses within the district, and some other government officials.
Torres Small has had to fundraise twice as hard as Herrell because New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District is a Republican majority, so in being a Democratic Candidate, Torres Small is already at a disadvantage. It also shows How Torres Small is a better campainer than her opponent, giving her an advantage. The majority of Torres Small’s funding had to came from out of state , because most republican organization with sponsor Herrell, this is why Herrell’s funding is primarily from within the 2nd district.
Party Alignment
In New Mexico’s 2nd district there has always been a lean toward the Republican majority, since the district voted for Donald Trump, Mitt Romney, and John Mccain. But the Democrats still see this as a chance to pick up district.
This should cause a shift towards Herrell of the republican party, since this district has mainly voted for republics officials in the past. But the the recent Pipe Bombs, and Synagogue shooting might push the vote in Torres Smalls favor. In past elections it can be seen that after an act of terrorism domestically, the votes lean toward the Democratic Candidate.
Ease of Voting and Voter Turnout
New Mexico is one of the easiest states to vote in, there is no voter ID required, citizens can vote 2-4 weeks prior to the election, and there is no absentee late punishment.
Because New Mexico has made voting so simple, more people are encouraged to vote, without a lot of hassles and restrictions. And since the ballots draw more people with less difficult voting setups and requirements. With the ability for voters to vote 2-4 weeks prior to the election, this allows people to not think of election day as another hassle.
Polling Trends and Previous Voting Behavior
Herrell Began the race with 73.2% to Torres Small’s 26.8%, but as the race continued, the number of Republican votes began to decrease and the amount of Democratic votes began to increase. Until October 22 when the polls counted 52.6% for Torres Smalls and 45.5% for Herrell. But when next counted the polls read Herrell was back ahead. But this could be a very close vote, since the number is republican votes is still decreasing.
Although Herrell began with a huge lead, her amount of voters has been on the decline, while Torres Smalls vote have been increasing; this is most likely a result of the events of domestic terrorism from this past weekend. This district is also turning away from their past voting habits of voting in republicans like Mitt Romney and Donald Trump.
Kansas, District 2, Paul Davis (D) v. Steve Watkins (R) v. Kelly Standley (Lib)
Data & Analysis:
Candidate Appeal Based on Demographics
Race: 89.0% White, 5.1% Black, 1.0% Asian, 3.8% Hispanic, 1.3% Native American, 2.0% Other. I do not think this will affect the outcome too much, since all of the candidates are white, and there is a white resident.
Age: The average age in this district is 35.3 years of age, meaning the experience in past elections will vary. This could possibly affect the outcome.
Gender: 50.2% Female, 49.8 Males, There are slightly more females than males, yet I do not think that this will affect the outcome by more than a percent.
Income: Median income in this area is $50,087, making this a lower middle class district, it seems that that income would not be a factor in this because, both candidates are in the middle class and both have campaigns that will appeal to this district.
Votes may appeal towards Steve Watkins, since the average age of the district is 35.3 years old, and Watkins is 41 years old. Also the fact that he is a war hero will appeal to this mostly white, Republican state. Davis has less luck in this criteria, since he doesn't especially appeal to the demographic, over his opponent.
Campaign Finances: Where did the money come from and where did it go?
Paul Davis collected $2,538,000 in individual contributions, while Steve Watkins only raised $401,000. With the the democratic campaign has 6x as much money as the Republican Candidate in this district, but this is because Kansas’ 2nd district is primarily Republican and he needs every advantage he can get. Paul Davis’ top 2 contributors to for his campaign is the University of Kansas and the American Federation of Teachers. While Steve Watkins’ top 2 contributors are Stormont Vail Healthcare and Dennise Summer Construction Co. Davis spent $1,704,622 of the money he raised on tv commercials, radio ads, billboards and mailer ads, and magazine ads. While Watkins spent $771,008 of the his money that he raised on, Commercials, radio ads, signs, mailer ads, and newspaper ads.
Since Kansas is a Republican majority state, so Paul Davis had to work harder on this campaign. Because of this, Davis raised 6x as much money Watkins. This shows that Davis is a better campaigner than his opponent. This a major part of Davis’ leap to the leading candidate. It also seems that the majority of teachers and schools in the district are supporting Davis, due to the education goals he has for the district. But Watkins is being supported by mainly blue collar companies and healthcare companies, most likely because of his campaign to support their industries.
Ease of Voting and Voter Turnout
You must register to vote by October 16, and can vote early from October 22 through November 5, and residents have the ability to vote by mail. But in order to vote, an ID is required, not optional. This isn’t that bad, since the average voter only spends 6 minutes waiting.
Overall, it is fairly easy to vote in Kansas’ 2nd district because residents can vote 2-4 weeks prior to the election, causing less hassle, and a higher voter turnout. They also do not require an excuse for having been absent for submitting a ballot. The only difficult requirement this state has is that voters are required to have an ID at the polls.
Party Alignment
Kansas’ 2nd district has had a tendency in the recent Presidential and State Legislative elections, the district voted for Donald Trump (2016) and Mitt Romney (2012). Kelly Might have a chance to pull through because he wants to bring more jobs to rural areas and this district is 40.27% rural land and 59.73% urban.
This district is more likely going to vote for Steve Watkins based of the the districts Republican majority. And in the past elections of 2012 and 2016, this district voted for Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump. Since the Democrats are in the minority here, Davis is at a disadvantage.
Polling Trends and Previous Voting Behavior