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Essay: Discovering the Benefits of Indispensable Traditional Agricultural Systems in the Mediterranean Region

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Traditional agricultural systems are of great importance for the Mediterranean region. In addition to maintaining plant and animal species of high conservation value, and significantly contributing to rural economies around the Mediterranean basin (Volaire, Kallida, Norton, Malinowski and Barre, 2016), traditional agro-silvo-pastoral systems are considered as model for the integration of sustainable land-use and biodiversity conservation (Acha and Newing, 2015). Many traditional agro-silvo-pastoral systems have been in use for centuries, creating sustainable ecosystems that host biodiversity that is often dependent on traditional practices. Mediterranean traditional multifunctional agricultural and agroforestry systems typically developed in marginal areas where environmental conditions do not allow high yield agricultural exploitation and where combining multiple agricultural activities proved to be the only profitable way of land-use. Despite being widely regarded as sustainable, many of these systems have been in sharp decline since the second half of the twentieth century. This is the result of two opposing processes: intensification of land-use on one side and extensification of land- use on the other. Both processes lead to the abandonment of traditional practices that defined the prerequisites of traditional agro-silvo-pastoral systems for many centuries. Apart from changes in land-use, traditional Mediterranean systems are threatened by ongoing climate change. The Mediterranean region has been identified as one of the worlds regions most sensitive to climate change (Guiot and Cramer, 2016). Climate observations already indicate a general drying trend over most of the Mediterranean and show annual mean conditions have become warmer. Both global and regional climate model projections indicate these trends will continue in the future (Giannakopoulos et al. 2009; Ducrocq et al. 2016). Even though traditional practices, such as the growing of drought- tolerant crops, transhumance and the use of rangelands or tree fodder for livestock, are age-old solutions to a challenging Mediterranean climate, some of these practices are at risk because of the expected drier and hotter conditions.

Throughout this research traditional Mediterranean systems refer to polycultural agroforestry systems: agricultural systems that imitate diversity of natural ecosystems by using multiple crops and trees in the same space (Barbera and Cullotta, 2011). These systems are typified by a mosaic structure of land-use made up of agricultural and agri-forestry patches and corridors that exhibit great species and inner species diversity resulting from cyclical disturbances introduced by livestock and their transhumance, cutting and coppice regimes, fire management, and crop cultivation (Blondel, 2005; Barbera and Cullotta, 2011; Moreno and Pulido, 2010). These practices gradually shaped heterogeneous mosaic landscapes over the course of centuries and define the prerequisites of traditional agro-silvo-pastoral systems (Acha and Newing, 2015; Blondel, 2005; Barbera and Cullotta, 2011; Moreno and Pulido, 2010).

Since the mid-twentieth century many of these systems have been in sharp decline. This is caused by intensification of land-use on one side and land abandonment on the other (Acha and Newing, 2015; Moreno and Pulido, 2010; Barbera and Cullotta, 2011).

Land abandonment has been driven by migration to urbanized coastal zones and consequently increased labour costs and is reinforced by increasing occurrence of large disturbances like wildfires, droughts and pests and diseases. Large scale intensification of land-use was triggered by a growing demand for food, combined with increasing agricultural mechanization and policies that encourage agricultural intensification and single crop systems (Acha and Newing, 2015; Moreno and Pulido, 2010). In Europe, it also partly driven by land owners being more interested in obtaining economic profit than in rational long-term exploitation of agro-silvo-pastoral resources (Moreno and Pulido, 2010).

Both intensification and extensification of land-use disrupt the traditional adaptation practices to climate variability that characterize Mediterranean traditional systems and safeguarded ecological sustainability. Abandonment of traditional practices combined with the impacts of climatic changes make traditional Mediterranean landscapes particularly vulnerable for expected climate change (Acha and Newing, 2015; Moreno and Pulido, 2010; Barbera and Cullotta, 2011; Ducrocq et al 2016).

For this research, a systematic literature review was conducted to obtain an overview of how the literature reports on policies that specifically target climate change impacts in traditional Mediterranean systems. The components of this scientific literature review are based on those suggested by Berrang-Ford, Pearce, and Ford (2015).

The first step of this literature review, was to systematically search the online databases of ‘web of science’ and ‘google scholar’ for relevant articles, this was done by filling in search strings that were computed with the use of a predefined search scope and matching key-words, shown in table 1. After the initial search, an extended search was conducted by leveraging found literature for citations of relevant articles.

The second step was to determine which articles to include in the literature review, which was done by scanning titles, key-words, abstracts and conclusions for the presence of inclusion and exclusion criteria. For an overview of inclusion criteria see table 1. Because the focus of this study is on the impact of climate change on traditional systems and corresponding/relevant policy, literature on future socio-economic changes is excluded. Similarly, literature about future environmental change that is not predominantly driven by climate change is excluded as well. For a list of excluded literatures please refer to appendix 1. The concepts and definitions that were used to define the search scope and matching key-words; and inclusion and exclusion criteria (shown in table 1.) are based on the concepts and definitions that are defined in the theoretical framework of this thesis. The third step, was to systematically search each document for information on impacts that will be caused by climate change and the policies responding to these impacts. To enable comparison of situations in different countries of different continents, all impacts, policies, implementation status and effects were classified into main- and sub-categories, shown in table 1.

The fourth and final step was to analyse the obtained results. The strategy for analysing obtained results is based on a framework by Eisenack and Stecker (2012) that is designed to analyse climate change adaptions as actions. This is done because this framework enables identification of adaptation practices that are not necessarily incorporated in a policy framework yet.

Following the definition provided by this framework, impacts are defined as the effects statistical changes in meteorological variables due to climate change have on environmental and socio- economic factors in traditional Mediterranean land-use systems.

Using the definition of Eisenack and Stecker (2012), policies are defined as purposeful actions targeting impacts of climate change.

This paper distinguishes four main policy typologies based on how adaptation activities and policy objectives or ‘purposes’ are interlinked.

Legal policies, and institutional measures include all policy courses or actions that are performed or proposed by governmental bodies that affect the ability of traditional Mediterranean land-use systems to cope with climate change.

Research and development, and information instruments include all actions or measures that are essential to require information that is needed to put in place the right policies for adaption to climate change.

Economic instruments include all financial incentives that encourage actors to perform activities that help ecosystems adapt to climate change, or all financial measures that help farmers or pastoralist adapt to climate change.

Changes to land-use and management include all actions that happen on a farm level. These actions can be proposed or regulated by governments but are executed by farmers or pastoralists.

In addition to actual policies that specifically target expected or observed impacts of climate change in traditional Mediterranean landscapes, this definition of policies also includes planned policies, and policy recommendations in the form of proposed adaptation strategies that include recommended adaptation activities to reduce expected or observed impacts of climate change on traditional Mediterranean land systems. Finally, when literature reports about on policy effects, these were classified environmental, socio-economic or both effects.

The systematic literature search, as described in paragraph 3.3, resulted in 30 documents being found, of which 12 meet all inclusion criteria and are included in this review. An overview of the literature and a synthesis of the information the literature provides on: impacts of climate change on traditional Mediterranean landscapes; policies responding to these impacts; their implementation status and reported effects, is shown in table 2.

As is shown in the third column of table 2, this review includes 11 peer reviewed articles and 1 policy document. The fourth column shows all documents were published between 2010 and 2018, with the years of publication being quite evenly distributed over this 8-year period.

Also, all literature was published or translated to English by someone other than the author of this paper. The geographical scope of reviewed literature, which is shown in the fourth column of table 2, includes 7 of the 27 countries that are covered by the Mediterranean ecoregion, and is distributed over three continents. Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia on the African continent; Israel on the Asian continent; and Italy, Portugal, and Spain on the European continent.

The 5 studies that report on Europe emphasize the Iberian Peninsula is part of their geographical scope. Four of these studies have a specific focus on cork producing areas, Alentejo and the Algarve in Portugal, and Extremadura and Andalucía in Spain.

Six studies report about North Africa in general, or Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia specifically, and emphasize their geographical scope is confined to areas with a Mediterranean climate.

The fifth column of table 2 summarizes the traditional systems the literature reports about.

The majority of reviewed literature, 7 out of 12 documents report on open woodland systems. Five studies discuss open woodland systems in Europe, characterizing ‘dehesa/montado’ systems as traditional Mediterranean oak woodlands or traditional Mediterranean open woodlands or silvo- pastoral ecosystems under extensive agro-silvo-pastoral or silvo-pastoral management. One study focussed on the distribution of Mediterranean oak woodlands in South European and North African countries. One study reports on traditional Mediterranean open woodland ecosystems in Israel. One study focussed on traditional agro-silvo and silvo-pastoral agroforestry landscapes in Morocco.

Five studies report about rainfed pastoral systems; Mediterranean rainfed agroforestry systems; rainfed agriculture; or rainfed farming systems in North African and Arab countries.

These rain-fed systems are identified as a traditional Mediterranean system because their characteristics correspond with the characteristics of traditional systems as defined in the theoretical framework of this thesis.

The sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth column of table 2 summarize: environmental and socio-economic impacts; policy typologies; policy implementation status; and policy effects the literature reports about. These results will be discussed in the following nine paragraphs of this chapter.

This paragraph presents the reported environmental impacts on agro-silvo-pastoral systems.

Five studies show how climate change threatens the survival of cork and holm oaks in agro-silvo- pastoral systems (Azul, Sousa, Agerer, Martín and Freitas, 2010; Bouzekraoui et al. 2016; Correia et al. 2018; Martín et al. 2015; Sternberg et al. 2015). Increasing aridity, caused by decreases in precipitation but also higher temperatures, is identified as a main threat for the survival of cork and holm oaks, two dominant tree species in managed Mediterranean woodlands. Drought negatively affects annual stem growth and overall tree health and increasing frequency and severity of droughts due to climate change will lead to increased oak mortality rates. Correia et al. (2018) modelled the effect of climate change on habitat suitability for the current distribution of cork oak woodlands. According to their projections, in Portugal, between 5000-6000 km2 (under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) of Mediterranean woodlands will change from high to low suitability, and large areas in the southernmost regions of the current distribution, including large parts of North Africa and Iberia (Alentejo, Algarve, Extremadura, and Andalucía) are predicted to become entirely unsuitable for the species. This has several implications for overall ecosystem functioning, provision of ecosystem services and maintaining biodiversity. It will also have important socio-economic implications since rural livelihoods in the region depend mostly on cork and livestock production.

In Europe, changes in temperature and water availability are also predicted to reinforce current threats to the productivity and survival of managed oak woodlands. In addition to landscape degradation by agricultural intensification and land abandonment, Mediterranean oak woodlands are threatened by a lack of natural oak regeneration and high adult oak mortality, leading to declines in tree density and area loss. Moreover, climate change is expected to exacerbate tree decline and area loss because of increased desiccation induced tree mortality*7&9.

Additionally, climate change will increase the risk for pests and diseases in European agro-silvo- pastoral ecosystems, and this too will acerbate current threats to the conservation of these systems. Research by Azul et al, (2010), shows that in Alentejo, Portugal’s leading cork producing area, climate change will favour the establishment and aggressiveness of forest pathogens that are strongly implied in cork oak mortality. This could further compromise the survival and maintenance of productivity in Mediterranean forest systems*5. Research by Ponti Gutierrez, and Altieri (2010) shows that climate warming will alter the interaction between olive trees and its pest, e.g. the olive fly Bactrocera oleae. This will affect olive yields and farm profitability.

Furthermore, climate change threatens biodiversity especially the transition zones between a desert climate and a Mediterranean climate is at risk. This region is rich in biodiversity; however, it is also extremely susceptible to climate change and species without the ability to adapt or migrate to regions with more suitable conditions may entirely disappear. Sternberg et al. (2015) explain that biodiversity in Israel is currently being threatened by habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation caused by increasing urbanization and population pressure, which prohibits northwards species migration when the transition zones between desert and Mediterranean climate become inhabitable *11. Therefore, climate change impacts in Israel could reinforce biodiversity loss that is currently being caused by increasing human pressure. Seven studies show climate change will affect tree, crop, and livestock productivity in ASPS (Correia et al. 2018; Haddad et al. 2011; Iglesias, Báez and Diaz-Ambrona, 2016; Ponti et al. 2010; Sahnoune et al. 2013; Schilling et al. 2012; Souissi et al. 2018). This paragraph presents the reported socio-economic impacts of these environmental stresses.

In Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, productivity of rain-fed pastoral systems which is already low because it is limited by low and poorly distributed rainfall during growing season combined with frequent dry spells causing severe moisture stress, will become less reliable and average rain-fed crop yields are expected to decrease because of reduced precipitation, combined with higher temperatures and more frequent drought spells (Haddad et al. 2011; Sahnoune et al. 2013; Schilling et al. 2012; Souissi et al. 2018). In all three countries over 95% of all agricultural land is rain-fed and considering both GDP and employment, the importance of the agricultural sector ranges from medium for Algeria, high in Tunisia, to very high in Morocco. Shifting rainfall patterns and decreasing average precipitation in North Africa are projected to cause an average decrease in agricultural productivity of rain-fed around 30% by 2070. This will cause an average GDP loss between 0.3% and 1.4% (Schilling et al. 2012). Farmers, who belong mostly to poorer part of the population are expected to endure most of this loss, causing social inequality to grow*10.

For Tunisia, Souissi et al. (2018) describe how decreasing precipitation threatens profitability of traditional farming systems in Southern and Central Tunisia, especially those combining orchards with extensive livestock and rain-fed cereals. These systems have no possibilities for supplementary irrigation and because of decreasing average precipitation they are predicted to suffer yield reductions, causing farm income to drop. When these systems are no longer profitable they will be abandoned and gradually disappear. Employment in the agricultural sector is very high in Tunisia so this will have implications for family incomes and social inequality.

Projected shifts in the distribution of cork woodlands will affect rural economies in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. Cork oak woodlands in the Mediterranean are of high social economic value. Cork is the sixth most important non-timber forest product worldwide and 300.000 t cork is harvested annually across the Mediterranean.

Iglesias et al. (2016) identified loss of farm income as the most important consequence of reduced pasture productivity for traditional dehesa farmers, as dehesa farm income depends mostly on pasture productivity.

In three studies, socio-economic impacts explicitly doubled as environmental impacts. Research by Schilling et al. (2012) shows decreased rangeland productivity due to climate change will limit the ability for transhumanist pastoralists in semi-arid Morocco to maintain their livelihood and could force them to switch to sedentarily pastoralism. This will increase grazing pressure and demand for firewood in the settlement area, what in turn leads to environmental degradation and social conflicts over the access to and property rights of pasture lands. According to Haddad et al. (2011) under future climate change, goats and sheep will be more profitable that crops. Consequently, animal numbers are expected to grow. However small ruminant productivity will also be impacted by climate change since higher temperatures will reduce milk productivity and droughts will reduce pasture productivity and hence fodder availability. Increased animal numbers combined with reduced pasture productivity will reinforce rangeland degradation, desertification, and loss of plant biodiversity (Haddad et al. 2011).

Ponte et al. (2010) explain how increased olive fly infestations will affect production capacity and profitability of traditional agro-silvo-pastoral olive farms, sometimes leading to their abandonment. Since these farming systems are crucial for reducing forest fire risk, soil conservation and maintaining biodiversity, their abandonment results in the loss of highly valued landscapes, ecosystem services and the loss of biodiversity.

Three documents report about national strategies against climate change that also include policies targeting impacts of climate change on traditional systems. Sahnoune et al. (2013) discuss Algeria’s National Climate Plan*13. ANCP includes several measures that can increase the ability for traditional agricultural systems to cope with climate change. Such as: promoting adaptation of agricultural calendar to climate change and the selection of crops that are better adapted to an arid climate; adaptation of the institutional and regulatory framework by implementation a program against climate-sensitive diseases; and installing weather and climate monitor systems to give early warnings for extreme weather to farmers.

Schilling et al. (2012) evaluate Morocco’s ‘Plan Vert’, a national strategy for agricultural development that also addresses climate change. MPV includes a policy to support the use of renewable energies in rural areas. In combination with Morocco’s ‘Solar Plan’ for the instalment of 2000 MW of solar power generation capacity by 2020, this policy could enable the replacement of firewood by solar energy as the main electricity source in rural communities and put a halt to overexploitation of trees for firewood in traditional Mediterranean systems thereby increasing overall ecosystem resilience. Sternberg et al. (2015) evaluate Israel’s National Biodiversity Plan. INBP includes several measures that could limit damage to Mediterranean open woodland systems. Such as: enhancing current legislation targeting biodiversity protection; strengthening the role of HaMaarag (Israel’s National Ecosystem Assessment Program) as the planning body for biodiversity conservation; and the creation of policies for the conservation of ecological corridors and local refugia areas to counteract habitat fragmentation and increase the chance for species survival. According to Sternberg et al. (2015) this is an important strategy since increasing connectivity across environmental and climatic gradients helps to maintain natural resilience by allowing reorganization of natural ecosystems facing climate change. Correia et al. (2018) recommend a similar policy approach for cork oak woodlands. Policies targeting cork oak woodlands that are becoming unsuitable for the cork oak should focus on preserving local refugia, areas that will remain environmentally suitable due to their location. Refugia are important to preserve existing biodiversity and could complement the current network of protected areas like the Natura 2000 habitats and increase habitat connectivity. This could be important strategy for the EU. However, Mediterranean cork oak woodlands cross country borders and global, national, and regional policies are needed to realize this strategy.

Bouzekraoui et al. (2016) formulate policy recommendations for the agroforestry landscapes in semi- arid Morocco. Their recommendations include institutional measures such as the organization of shepherds’ associations and strengthening the role of local institutions that are responsible for the protection of agroforestry landscapes. Schilling et al. (2012) also recommend strengthening local institutions. According to Schilling et al. (2012), commercial pastoralism (an adaptation practice for pastoralist that will be discussed under changes in land-use and management), could be recommended as an alternative strategy for transhumanist or sedentary pastoralism when combined with the empowering of traditional communal institutions. Traditional communal institutions have managed rangeland ecosystems mostly in a sustainable way by incorporating local ecological knowledge, 20th century government measures (e.g. fodder subsidies) led to the loss of tribal structures causing increased overexploitation of Moroccan rangelands. Re-arranging traditional management systems within governmental institutions could decrease overexploitation and increase the institutional response that is required to monitor and regulate unwanted side effects that may arise from this new livelihood strategy. In situations where a lack of information about how best to reduce environmental impacts is a significant barrier to adaptation, scientific research aimed at understanding the potential effects of climate change on ecosystem functioning might be the necessary first step in the policy making process. The literature recommends broadening the scientific basis for adaptive action to guide decisions for future management and environmental policies five times. For instance, to achieve biodiversity conservation in Israel under future climate change, Sternberg et al. (2015) state further research is required to get a better understanding on the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Therefore, it is necessary to identify ecosystem thresholds to different climatic variables; map sensitivity of plants and animals to pests, pathogens, and parasites that are favored by climate change. They also emphasize the need to study management options for improving resistance of traditional Mediterranean landscapes to a drier climate and developing tools and techniques for conserving or restoring affected ecosystems.

Concerning management options for improving resistance of Mediterranean farmers to a drier climate, Haddad et al. (2011) report about research projects by ICARDA that could help keep Mediterranean rainfed pastoral systems economically viable under future climate change. Research projects that are relevant for rainfed pastoral systems include biotechnology to develop more drought resistant crops, and breeding programs to improve production and livestock’s resistance to heat. Correia et al. (2018) report about the cork industry developing the use of stand oak irrigation for in to maintain cork oak productivity Mediterranean woodlands losing some level of suitability, this technology is currently still in development and the cost-effectiveness of this measure is not well understood. Particularly drier regions, where limited water availability will be acerbated by climate change need prior environmental and economic evaluation before this measure can be implemented. A study by Ponti et al. (2010) offers a solution for the extreme variability in environmental and socio- economic factors affecting traditional systems across the Mediterranean region, and the notion that no system will experience the same climate change impacts. Ponti et al. (2010) state that the first step for the conservation of traditional agro-silvo-pastoral systems is to develop a method for holistic- ecosystem assessment of these farming systems to evolving global change including climate change to guide the policy making process and provide a first draft off such a method.

In situations where farmers are unaware of how they can best reduce environmental impacts, information instruments such as, education, training and awareness raising campaigns can be used to inform farmers about how to adapt to climate change. Five studies recommend the use of information instruments for this type of situation. For example, to inform farmers in Agoudi N’lkhir about safeguarding agroforestry resources, Bouzekraoui et al. (2016) recommend training certified forest guards to enhance management of forest heritage and forest resources and give agricultural advice to famers to exploit wood only by clear cutting old growths with the objective to rejuvenate the forest and contribute to forest conservation.

Another example of the use of information instruments is the installment of monitor and early warning systems for extreme weather events and providing seasonal weather forecasts to farmers to prevent investment losses, unsustainable behavior and risk averse behavior, as is planned by the Moroccan and Algerian government. The use of subsidies or other type of financial incentives to encourage farmers to start implementing adaptive practices or perform an adaptive action is recommended by two studies and reported about by one policy report. The policy report written by Mosquera-Losada et al. (2016) evaluates agroforestry measures that are part of the RDP (2014-2020) *12, that is part of the EU* CAP. Relevant for Mediterranean traditional systems are the subsidies that support activities for improving resilience of agroforestry ecosystems to climate change such as, management and recovery of hedgerows in traditional landscapes. Relevant RDP (2014-2020) measures are: measure 4.4 investments in physical assets supporting non-productive investments; measure 5.1 support for investments in preventive actions; sub-measure 8.5 support for improving resilience and environmental value of agroforestry ecosystems; and sub-measure 16.5 support for joint action undertaken with a view to mitigating or adapting to climate change and for joint approaches to environmental projects and ongoing environmental practices (Mosquera-Losada et al. 2016).

For Mediterranean cork oak woodlands in North Africa and South Europe, Correia et al. (2018) recommend policies targeting cork oak woodlands losing some level of suitability should focus on minimizing threats climate change impacts but should also focus on minimizing existing threats. According to Correia et al. (2018) this can be achieved by promoting sustainable forest management with the use of financial incentives such as, forest certification and payment for ecosystem services. For farmers in rain-fed pastoral systems in Arab countries, Haddad et al. (2011) recommend setting up rural financial services that enable resource pour farmers to adopt new technologies to increase their resilience to climate change.

To increase farmers’ resilience to climate change impacts and prevent unsustainable behavior Schilling et al. (2012) recommend providing area-based rainfall insurances. However, a rainfall insurance program that was implemented in 1990 by the world bank failed in Morocco because of a downward trend in precipitation, indicating challenges for implementation. For Moroccan, Algerian and Tunisian farming systems it is recommended to grow alternative crops and crop mixes that are better adapted to an arid climate, and adjust agricultural calendars to climate change (Bouzekraoui et al. 2016; Haddad et al. 2011; Schilling et al. 2012; Souissi et al. 2018)

Two studies provide recommendations for grazing land management. For extensive Spanish dehesa farms, it is recommended to regulate grazing intensity by reducing herd size on dehesa farms (Iglesias et al. 2016). For Moroccan pastoralists, commercial pastoralism could potentially decrease their vulnerability to price fluctuations and weather variability and could therefore increase the resilience of pastoral livelihoods to climate change.

Two articles provide recommendations for livestock management. (Haddad et al. 2011; Bouzekraoui et al. 2016) recommend improving livestock populations in rainfed pastoral systems to make livestock husbandry more economically viable. Haddad et al (2011) discuss the potential of breeding programs to improve livestock’s resistance to heat.

Another measure that is could increase economic viability of rainfed pastoral systems, is growing cactuses as an alternative for traditional livestock fodder, since cactuses are better adapted to limited water availability they might prove a more reliable source for livestock fodder than for instance shrubs and grasses (Haddad et al. 2011).

Three articles provide recommendations for agroforestry management to contribute to the conservation of ASPS under climate change. Martín et al. (2015) recommend modifying pruning intensities from heavy to low intensity in areas where holm oak tree growth is or will be compromised by climate change. This could increase tree growth and resilience to droughts. Azul et al. (2010) recommend adjusting traditional agroforestry practices in favor of the establishment of Ectomycorrhizal fungal communities that are known to enhance nutrient acquisition, drought tolerance, and pathogen resistance of their hosts. Therefore, ECM could help increase cork oak resilience to climate change. To improve the resilience of agroforestry landscapes in Agoudi N’lkhir, Bouzekraoui et al. (2016) recommend providing certified trees to farmers that will enhance the diversity of forest products. The literature provides evidence of two policies that are currently being implemented. Mosquera-Losada et al. (2016) report about the use of RDP (2014-2020) measure 4.4, 5.1, 8.5 and 16.5 in traditional agroforestry systems in Portugal, Spain, Italy, and France. However, these measures are part of rural development programs that include numerous other measures, so no information is available on the effectiveness of individual measures.

Schilling et al. (2012) report about MPV which was implemented in 2008 and the policy to support the use of renewable energies in rural areas. Their research indicates that revenues from pastoral livestock without firewood collection under a 45% precipitation reduction are higher than the present-day revenues from pastoral livestock with firewood collection. However, they do not report about the effect this policy has on the environment.

Moreover, the literature provides evidence of planned policies, e.g. ANCP is in final discussion before being implemented in 2020, also INBP which was published in 2010 still must be implemented. Mostly, the literature provides policy recommendations for various actors at various managerial levels. None of these studies specify how policy recommendations could be implemented in a legal framework.

Only two studies describe effects of recommended policy. Azul et al. (2010) show that moderating pruning intensity from high to low pruning intensity has a positive effect on tree growth and health in different dehesa plots in Spain. Martín et al. (2016) show that extensive silvo-pastoral practices and extensive traditional silvo-pastoral and agro-silvo-pastoral practices increase the abundance, diversity and richness of ECM fungal communities in different montado plots in Portugal (Alentejo). Previous studies, identify abandonment of traditional practices to climate variability practices combined with the impacts of climatic changes make ASPS particularly vulnerable for expected climate change. However, an overview of expected climate change impacts on traditional systems around the Mediterranean remained unknown. For example, Malek and Verburg (2017) modelled how changes in food demand will affect ASPS in their ability to provide all services in the future, but their research did not include any climate change effects. Similarly, a Mediterranean wide overview of policies specifically targeting climate change impacts on traditional Mediterranean systems was still lacking and it remained unclear where and if such policies are formulated. For this reason, a systematic literature review was conducted of existing literature on climate change impacts on ASPS and corresponding/relevant policy. With the objective to: i) synthesize the current state of knowledge regarding the impacts of climate change on traditional Mediterranean systems; ii) to identify and summarize policies that can potentially reduce the impacts of climate change on Mediterranean agro- silvo-pastoral systems; iii) and to provide a Mediterranean wide overview of actual policy response across the region.

The findings of this thesis prove several insights. First, climate change will reinforce current threats to ASPS in numerous ways. Additionally, several socio-economic impacts doubled as environmental impacts and vice versa. This shows how integrated these systems still are with human activities today. Policies with the objective to reduce climate change impacts on ASPS should therefore consider current threats and be sensitive to how environmental and socio-economic factors are interlinked. For example, conservation of dehesa/montado systems is threatened by agricultural intensification: party driven by land owners being more interested in obtaining economic profit than in rational long- term exploitation of dehesa/montado resources, and land abandonment: partly driven by high labour costs and increasing occurrence of natural disturbances (e.g. droughts and pests and diseases). Climate change is expected to exacerbate these treats. This could compromise farm profitability and lead to farm abandonment. Subsidies for promoting sustainable forest management (e.g. forest certification, payment for ecosystems services, or measures such as adjusting agroforestry management in favor of ECM establishment or modifying pruning intensity) could in addition to reducing current threats, contribute to sustainable management and hence conservation of ASPS under climate change. These findings are consistent with other studies. Moreno and Pulido state the implementation of direct policies for sustainable for sustainable management of dehesas seems to contribute to their conservation. Additionally, research by Dupnnois, Ouahamane, Hafdi and Prin, (2016) confirms the suitability of agroforestry management in favor of ECM and for increasing ecosystem resilience to climate change.

However, the effectiveness of some of these measures is questioned in other studies. For example, Volaire et al. (2016) question the effectiveness of adjusting agricultural calendars to adapt to climate change since some climate projections

Third, the findings show that literature published between 2010 and 2018 provide policy recommendations more than it reports about actual implemented policies. As a result, information on how changes in law take climate related issues threatening traditional landscapes into account is very limited. Considering the significant effect climate change will have on traditional systems this could signify the current policy landscape is not adequate for addressing these impacts. For example, Correia et al (2018) state that due to their slow growth rate cork oaks require early implementation of policies to increase resilience to climate change. Schilling et al. (2011) emphasize the need for agricultural policies in North Africa which equally address societal and environmental needs for North African societies to cope with climate change. Sternberg et al. (2015) show the importance of conservation of refugia to allow reorganization of ecosystem and enable northward species migration. The findings of this research are based on qualitative data only. Consequently, qualitative statements e.g. on policy effectiveness considering different emission scenarios are beyond the scope of this research. Moreover, only scientific databases were searched, and document selection was limited to documents published in English. More documents could exist which are published in languages other than English or stored in other databases. Therefore, it is likely that not all relevant literature in included in this research.

Also, confining the scope to literature published in or after 2010 which is a relatively short time span, might have prohibited identification of longer term trends regarding both climate change and policy. What does this mean for the results of this thesis?

The scope of this research is confined to climate change impacts on traditional systems, it did not consider future socio-economic change as an independent factor. Similarly, environmental changes that are not driven by climate change were not considered as an independent factor.

However, in some locations future socio-economic conditions might prevail in determining the fate of ASPS, while in other locations independent environmental factors might be decisive. ASPS systems around the Mediterranean basin are expected to suffer multiple ecological stresses due

to climate change. Projected changes in temperature and water availability will affect habitat suitability for tree species in traditional Mediterranean agro-silvo-pastoral ecosystems, especially the cork and holm oak. Moreover, changes in temperature and water availability are also predicted to reinforce current threats to the productivity and survival of ASPS. This has several implications for overall ecosystem functioning, provision of ecosystem services and maintaining biodiversity and will also have important socio-economic implications, since rural livelihoods in ASPS depend mostly on tree products, crop and livestock production. Policies with the objective to reduce climate change impacts should therefore include adaptation activities that consider current threats, and be sensitive to both environmental and socio-economic circumstances. Since this research only reviewed articles on policies with the specific objective of reducing impacts of climate change in ASPS, this study lacks an in-depth analysis of current threats for traditional Mediterranean land systems and policies targeting these threats. Future research should be conducted to identify how current threats and those imposed by climate change will impact ASPS. This synthesis of literature on existing literature on climate change impacts on ASPS and corresponding/relevant policy indicates that the current policy landscape is not adequate for reducing climate change impacts on ASPS. It is important for governments in the discussed Mediterranean countries to increase their policy response.

What is also still lacking is an overview of policy effects. However, insight in policy effectiveness is an important step during the policy making process. Further research should be conducted to study policy effectiveness, so that policies can be adjusted when they prove unsuccessful for achieving their purpose.

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