The results of the 2016 presidential election surprised millions of Americans across the country. Donald Trump’s victory left forecasters that projected a victory for the Democratic Party stunned and searching for ways to explain Trump’s miraculous presidential run. Despite losing the popular vote to his opponent Hillary Clinton, Trump’s campaign led him to secure the crucial 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. As campaigning for the 2020 elections will soon come upon American voters, many projections for President Trump’s reelection chances for 2020 have surfaced. Most recently, bets for President Trump place him at a 40% chance of being reelected. However, given the economic growth under the Trump administration and the predictable rural voting patterns of key states needed to win the electoral college, I argue that President Trump has more than a 40 percent chance of winning his reelection in 2020.
One of the most frequent ways to assess the President is through public opinion polls. Measurements of presidential approval are thought to be indicative of how well of a job the public feels that the president is doing. While President Trump seems unpopular compared to past presidents, his ratings are largely polarized. On the 674th day in office, President Trump’s overall job approval was 38%. However, the numbers by partisanship show an overwhelming support among Republicans at 98% and a mere 6% approval rating among Democrats. In comparison, former President Obama’s overall approval rating was 46% the same day in office, with a similarly high approval rating within his own party at 95%, and a 14% approval rating among Republicans. Somewhat surprisingly, Trump’s approval ratings are more polarized than former President Obama, who also faced strong racial and partisan polarization during his time in office.
While public opinion polls are meant to gauge the public’s view of the president, they do face limitations. First, partisanship plays a large role in how people respond to surveys. For example, according to the Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, there is a large split between support for the Affordable Healthcare Act, with 80% of Democrats having a favorable opinion of it compared to less than 20% of Republicans. Often times, there are other factors, particularly party identification, that play a strong role in determining how people answer polls. Thus, there is occasionally a stark difference between what people actually believe and what people report believing. Secondly, because people often do not have well-structured beliefs, survey assessments tend to be largely unstable. Voters are traditionally and consistently unknowledgeable about politics. This lack of knowledge leads to a disjuncture in the responses people give at polls. For instance, the same poll where a majority of voters said they were “angry” at the political system also had a majority that agreed that they were “optimistic about where things are headed.” Evidently, public opinion is variable and sometimes even contradictory. Regardless of these limitations, presidential approval ratings still hold some value when predicting elections because approval ratings tend to increase alongside evaluations of the economy, which will help place President Trump at a greater than 40% odds of winning reelection.
The state of the economy is the primary factor that determines presidential elections, and the most notable factor that boosts President Trump’s reelection chances for 2020. Lynn Vavreck explains this within a broader theory of retrospective voting, where voters primarily evaluate their current state compared to four years ago when voting in presidential elections, with their perceived state of the economy as the most important factor when making this evaluation. Voters assessing their own financial well-being is specifically important for those with a middling level of political information, which captures a large portion of the electorate. Further, “The Electoral Landscape of 2016” defines the most important traditional fundamental of presidential general elections as the state of the economy, where incumbent presidents do much better if the economy is improving on election year. Under these notions, key indicators that point to a prospering economy under President Trump significantly increase his reelection chances. Per Gallup, 68% of Americans say that it is a good time to find a quality job, which is the highest since 2002. Increasing consumer sentiment is positively correlated with presidential approval, and thus, with reelection odds as well. The Trump administration also sparked a GDP growth rate of 4.2% in the second quarter of 2018, which was also a ten-year high. Moreover, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the latest unemployment rate of 3.7% is the lowest since 2000. Interestingly, that 2000 economic boom came under President Clinton’s administration, who defeated incumbent President George H.W. Bush in 1992 with the famous campaign slogan “It’s the economy, stupid.” President Trump’s rhetoric of a thriving economy, and the countless economic measures that confirm it, will largely benefit his reelection bid. Pairing the statistics of economic growth and rising consumer sentiment under the Trump administration with Vavreck’s fundamental indicator of the economy in determining presidential elections, it is certainly more than 40% likely that Trump wins his reelection in 2020.
In addition to the state of the economy helping President Trump in 2020, the predictable rural voting pattern of key states also largely increases President Trump’s reelection chances. Despite losing the popular vote, President Trump acquired the votes of a very crucial part of the electorate: the white working class in rural areas. Retrospectively, Trump’s election in 2016 can be largely attributed to his strong performance in vital states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida, where support from rural and small counties projected him to victory in those states, and ultimately, to the presidency. Fueled by Trump’s stance on economic and cultural issues, such as trade protectionism and a strong anti-immigration rhetoric, rural voters in these crucial states felt empowered by such a candidate. As Cramer describes in Putting Inequality in Its Place, “rural consciousness revealed [that] people attribute rural deprivation to the decision making of urban political elites, who disregard and disrespect rural residents and lifestyles.” This type of message became a crucial part of Trump’s campaigning and eventual success in the 2016 elections, and will likely reappear in 2020. Donald Trump, a political outsider with a tough nationalist rhetoric, resonates with rural, white working class voters across the nation. Trump capitalizes on the rural voter’s larger perceptions of inequalities of power and resources with his “America First” platform. These voters merge their political identity with their ideas of distributive justice to understand politics. They have a general resentment towards the liberal establishment and feelings of “distrust, alienation, and lack of efficacy” in government, which explains their esteem towards Trump. Thus, knowing how these rural voters think and behave, while also understanding how President Trump is able to capture their votes, helps us strongly predict his increased chance for reelection. Ultimately, electoral votes matter and the electoral college is skewed so that states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida, where the urban – rural divide often makes the difference, also decides which candidate reaches 270 electoral votes. Therefore, the predictable pattern of rural voters captured by President Trump in key states also helps project his reelection odds at above 40 percent.
Despite the growing economy and rural voting trends benefiting Trump, the energized opposition from Democrats may mobilize more young and Latino voters, which may complicate Trump’s reelection bid. Donald Trump’s presidential victory has undeniably infuriated many Democrats. Trump’s discourse throughout his campaign and presidency has also violated many norms, and has caused a very strong opposition from Democrats who are outraged and further mobilized to vote. In addition, the fact that Latinos are now the largest minority in America, and that they generally have different attitudes than other Americans on “issues such as immigration reform” may help the Democrats in 2020. Considering President Trump’s vicious anti-immigration rhetoric and policies, there are greater feelings of anger towards him from the Latino constituency. Historically, young and Latino voters are more likely to lean towards Democrats, and while these two groups are growing and changing the demographics of the electorate, Democrats may have a greater advantage before. Examining the most recent voting data from the 2018 midterm elections, it is interesting to note that over a quarter of Hispanics that voted said it was their first time doing so, which was higher than any other demographic. Extrapolating these voting trends and assuming they hold true, one can predict that young and Latino voters will vote at higher rates in the 2020 election and overwhelmingly in favor of a Democratic candidate.
Despite this advantage for the Democrats, increased voter turnout among young and Latino voters may be offset by higher turnout from white, rural voters and greater Republican support. As previously mentioned, rural areas strongly favored President Trump in 2016 and were a fundamental aspect in projecting him to the presidency. Moreover, it is likely that President Trump’s ability to appeal to these rural voters will continue in the 2020 elections. Another factor that may offset the Democrats advantage among Latino and young voters is the amount of coverage that Trump receives during campaigns. Combining our knowledge of public opinion with media trends that persisted in the 2016 campaigns, Trump’s unprecedented amount of free media coverage is a large obstacle for other candidates, and one that benefits him greatly. Further, Emily Thorson describes the concept of “belief echoes,” where even successfully corrected misinformation has an effect on voters attitudes. The 2016 presidential elections revealed how Trump is able to capitalize on the mistrust of the media, and uses preposterous comments, that even if wrong or misleading, draws attention from voters and sticks with them. Branching off of this, it is quite reasonable that these tendencies will follow and strongly favor President Trump in his reelection campaign in 2020.
While Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential victory surprised many, fewer may be surprised if he is reelected in 2020. Despite President Trump’s untraditional discourse and strong opposition from the Democratic Party, his likelihood for reelection in 2020 is above 40%. The Trump administration has created economic growth seen across many measures, including decreasing unemployment, rising GDP, and increased consumer sentiment. Above all, presidential elections have historically focused on the state of the economy, which strongly favors President Trump. Even further, President Trump’s appeal to rural voters is key for winning crucial states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida, that ultimately are critical in determining the Presidency. Although there are strong sentiments of anger among young and Latino voters that may benefit Democrats come election day, there is also a likelihood of increased turnout among rural voters. In addition, President Trump has received strong Republican and white working class support on top of massive amounts of free media coverage. Ultimately, by the prospering economic trends with evidenced rural appeal and voting patterns in favor of President Trump, one can strongly conclude that he has more than a 40% chance of being reelected for a second term.