Q. No.1: Critically discuss the emergence of futurology as a discipline and highlight the role of this discipline in educational planning.
Answer
Futurology; Definition:
Futurology may be defined as the study of current trends aimed at forecasting the future developments in a particular field.
A) The emergence of Futurology as a discipline
Brief History
The origin of Futurology dates backs to the origin of imaginative world of literature and science fiction itself. However, as a discipline, futurology emerged in the form of technological forecasting that was developed around the end of Second World War..
At the RAND Corporation in California during the 1950s, Herman Kahn and others pioneered the so-called scenario technique for analyzing the relationship between weapons development and military strategy. Later Kahn applied this technique in On Thermonuclear War (1960), a book that examines the potential consequences of a nuclear conflict. During the time of Kahn’s first studies, the mathematician Olaf Helmer, also at RAND, proposed a theoretical basis for the use of expert opinion in forecasting.
In 1964 the French social scientist Bertrand de Jouvenel published L’Art de la conjecture (The Art of Conjecture), in which he offered a systematic philosophical rationale for the field. The following year the American Academy of Arts and Sciences formed its Commission on the Year 2000 “to anticipate social patterns, to design new institutions, and to propose alternative programs”; the commission’s 1967 report constituted the first wide-ranging futurological study in the United States.
The field was brought to wide popular attention in 1972 when Dennis Meadows and colleagues at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) published The Limits to Growth, based on a study commissioned by the Club of Rome, an international assembly of business leaders. This report focused on hypotheses derived from a computer model of the interaction of various global socioeconomic trends; it projected a Malthusian vision in which the collapse of world order would result if population growth, industrial expansion, and increased pollution, combined with insufficient food production and the depletion of natural resources, were to continue at current rates. To offset these trends, the report called for “a Copernican revolution of the mind,” to reevaluate the belief in endless growth and the tacit acceptance of wastefulness. Besides zero population growth and a leveling-off of industrial production, the report also recommended increased pollution control, the recycling of materials, the manufacture of more durable and repairable goods, and a shift from consumer goods to a more service-oriented economy. The U.S. government-commissioned Global 2000 Report to the President (1981) reiterated many of these concerns.
Criticism of these and other studies has centered mainly on the limitations of models and the subjective, interpretive nature of projections based on them. Futurologists generally acknowledge these difficulties but emphasize the increasing sophistication of their analytic techniques, which draw from such fields as mathematics, economics, environmental research, and computer science.
Other notable basic works in futurology include Future Shock (1970) by Alvin Toffler, The Coming of Post-Industrial Society (1973) by Daniel Bell, The Fate of the Earth (1982) by Jonathan Schell, and The Green Machines (1986) by Nigel Calder.
If it were possible to peep into our future, every one of us would surely attempt to improve it for the better. If you were a Pakistani in the early 1970s and you knew that gyre of political power that would destroy your country, by dividing into two halves – East and West Pakistan – you would not have sat idly as a silent spectator. But the problem is that we are unable to peep into the future with certainty.
B) The role of Futurology in educational planning
Education is in the field of future studies has taken place for some time. Beginning in the USA in the 1960s, it has since developed in many different countries. Future Education can encourage the use of concepts, tools, & processes that allow students to think longtime consequentially & imaginatively. It generally helps students to;
• Conceptualize more just & sustainable human & planetary futures.
• Develop knowledge & skills in exploring probable & preferred futures.
• Understand the dynamics & influence that human, social & ecological systems have on alternative futures.
• Fix responsibility & corresponding action on the part of students towards creating better futures. While future students remain a relatively new academic tradition, numerous tertiary institutions around the world teach it.
These vary from small programs or universities with just one or two classes, to programs that incorporate futurology in to other degrees.
It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future studies. One of the major roles of education is to prepare students for life in the next century, an awareness of these trends by educators as well as policy-makers is essential if our educational system is to achieve its objectives. As every dimension of our world evolves so rapidly challenges, the education challenges of tomorrow will require solutions that go for beyond today’s answer.
It involves many aspects e.g. our movements in the world create new kinds of data. Our community will have the tools & knowledge to produce customs goods. Our sense of community & our own identity are changing in a global society.
CURRENT REALITIES
1. We live in a world in which the salary gap between the highest and lowest skilled workers in our society is increasing.
2. In the current information/communications age it is appropriate to explore the information technology.
3. The digital divide is real, & the financial have-nots are the informational have-nots. Given the importance of information technologies in the future, this gap can produce a permanent underclass& further expand the gap between the have & have-nots.4.The continued downsizing of large corporations
The skills needed to thrive in small dynamic companies are different from those typically associated with corporate giants. Again it falls to our educational institutions to prepare students for this new world. Against the start background of today’s realities, several strong trends stand out. Many of these trends are interrelated &their combination has produced a positive feedback loop of tremendous proportions.
Education must focus on new competencies.
Technological fluency is a basic skill.
Education must prepare students for jobs that have yet to be invented.
Compact portable technologies facilitate anywhere anytime lifelong learning.
Bandwidth is becoming free.
Teachers have a multifaceted job. Teaching may seem easy, with its extended vacation times, moderate hours, salaried pay and seemingly easy task of relaying information to kids. However, many who have tried and found it daunting will tell you the job takes someone with stamina, organization and a passion for teaching to succeed.
Teacher in role is a method of teaching that utilizes techniques to facilitate education.
Coach and Facilitator
Teachers no longer simply relay information for rote memorization. Today's teacher is a learning coach or facilitator who provides the hands-on active learning resources and motivation wherein students learn without even realizing it.
Secondary Roles
Students need social and psychological guidance as much as they need academic guidance in order to be successful. The teacher finds herself in the role of social worker, counselor, nurse, and mentor and substitute parent when the need arises.
Lesson Planner
Creativity and the ability to ferret out resources that engage students in learning are invaluable skills in the role of teacher. Lesson and activity planning consumes an enormous amount of the teacher's time away from her students.
Academic Assessor
The teacher also plays the role of chief assessor of academic progress. He must always be up to task concerning where a student is on the learning curve and how far he must endeavor to take the student that year.
Learning Obstacles
The teacher must also assess any issues standing in the way of progress. Psychological, physical or learning difficulties that stand in the way of academic progress must be documented for assessment by specialists in these areas.
The importance of a teacher as an architect of our future generations demands that only the best and the most intelligent and competent members of our intelligentsia be allowed to qualify for this noble profession.