Political regime: Not one of the criteria of what constitutes a state, for instance, a monopoly on the use of force, or a functioning system of administration and law—not even the guarantee of safety and order—has been fulfilled in Somalia. Somalia remains a long way away from reorganizing its government structures. Despite these originating conditions, however, a noticeable improvement in the political situation has been observed since 1998 caused by the expansion of local administrative structures. So far, it has not been possible to completely stem the violence, which remains the biggest obstacle to a successful state consolidation.
The Republic of Somaliland, on the other hand, has made clear progress in expanding its state monopoly on the use of force and in guaranteeing safety. The administrative system is only in its formative stage, however, and the construction of a uniform, functioning system of law is strongly impeded by the government’s low budget and lack of trained personnel. Some first steps toward democratic transition have been realized in Somaliland as well.
Market economy: Despite the absence of reliable statistical material, noticeable improvements in Somalia’s socio-economic development status have been detected.
In the absence of state regulation, new regulatory mechanisms have formed, mainly based on family relationships, and although they do not completely exclude certain population groups, they do significantly interfere with their opportunities for participation. Quantitative improvements, therefore, do not go hand in hand with qualitative improvements. There are also hints of monopolization tendencies and of a concentration of wealth in a few hands. The high unemployment indicates that the great majority of the population is not participating in economic development. Ecological guidelines do not exist, and economic development in several sectors brings with it ecological damage that is to some extent irreversible.
The continuing war and the complete collapse of the state form extremely unfavorable originating conditions for any consolidation efforts. Long-term political stabilization can only occur if armed conflict is terminated and if there is at least rudimentary reorganization of state authority. In the Republic of Somaliland originating conditions were somewhat better but still very difficult. Since 1995, it has at least been possible to ensure peace in the region. The moves toward political and economic reconstruction have also been based on a complete breakdown of formal institutions.
International cooperation
The internationalization of economic and political processes is one of the main features of social change in Somalia. However, international cooperation has not been achieved through government cooperation with external players, but rather is controlled by private parties. International governmental and nongovernmental organizations’ searches for local mediators have led to a proliferation of local NGOs competing for access to international aid. Although international contributions have sharply declined since the withdrawal of UN intervention troops in 1995, the international aid sector remains one of the most important employers in both Somalia and Somaliland.
Overall evaluation
This assessment evaluates the originating conditions, current status, evolution, and political management in the direction of democratic and market-economic transformation as follows:
Originating conditions: The originating conditions for transformation in Somalia must be rated as extremely unfavorable. Owing to many years of war and the complete collapse of the state apparatus, Somalia lacks any basis whatsoever for political and economic reform management. The transformation processes described in this assessment are not due to systematic management but rather must be seen as the first, though not always successful, steps toward a political and economic reorganization from the bottom up.
Current status and evolution: The only, and extremely short, progress toward democratization was made in the Republic of Somaliland. In Somalia, democratization must be preceded by the re-establishment of government authority, whether organized as a centralized state or as a federation. Transformation toward a market economy is taking place all over Somalia, however, and this movement continued to gain strength during the period under study. Due to the lack of state regulation, however, economic development is neither institutionally integrated nor socially and ecologically cushioned. The constant threat of intensification of combat subjects market-economic development to considerable risk. Under no circumstances can it be considered stable.
Management: There is no state management in Somalia. The political management rating in Somaliland is clearly more positive, due to the poor originating conditions. Without being able to fall back on internal resources or extensive international aid, the government still managed to succeed in bringing peace to the country, as well as reconstructing and to a great extent stabilizing state structures. However, the government provides almost no economic management. It has not gone beyond the fundamental requirement of guaranteeing safety and protecting private property.
Outlook
Despite the absence of a managed transformation policy, it is nevertheless possible to recognize initial, fundamental processes toward social restructuring and reconstruction of the state. However, the key tasks in Somalia lie less in democratic and market-economic transformation than in bringing peace to a country wracked by civil war since 1988. The Republic of Somaliland in the northeast can surely serve as an example. There, through laborious negotiation and reform, a state system, albeit a still rudimentary one, was successfully rebuilt. Moreover, the people’s confidence in the state was strengthened. Lack of money and of professional administrative personnel in Somaliland will make improvements in administrative efficiency very difficult to achieve. Future transformation processes will thus presumably be rather slow to arrive.
In the south of Somalia, the only chance for improvement in the living situation of the Somali people is the achievement of long-overdue peace between the most important war factions. So far, however, all efforts to bring about peace have failed due to the warlords’ interests in acquiring power and wealth. The peace conference currently taking place in Eldoret, Kenya, in which all significant Somali war factions are participating, provides a small ray of hope.
Negotiations, which have been going on since October 2002, have not produced any workable results yet, although the fact that negotiations are still continuing is itself occasion for hope. Even if agreement on a new government can be reached in Eldoret, its long-term success is still far from assured. The people’s confidence in government has been shaken as much by the Barre regime’s decades of dictatorial rule as by the constant struggles for power among those warlords who in the future are supposed to guide the fate of a Somali state yet to be created.