DRAFT DESCRIPTION OF WORK
Relevance of the research topic. The continued expansion of the scale of globalization for more than a quarter of a century, characterized by the rapid decline in tariff and non-tariff barriers in international trade, the liberalization of cross-border capital flows, the growing number of regional integration associations, and the rapid pace of transnationalization of production processes, leaves national governments with fewer instruments for regulating exports and imports of their own countries.
Under such conditions, the idea of the ability of the exchange rate to stimulate exports and to suppress imports again becomes in demand in the process of developing foreign trade policies of a number of countries, for example, the United States. In this country, China is regularly charged with the fact that the high volume of its exports to the US and, at the same time, its low imports from the United States are the result of the allegedly understated exchange rate of the Chinese currency against the dollar. Recently, such accusations began to be made against Germany.
Similarly, Russia's foreign trade specialization in the export of commodities is often seen as a consequence of the allegedly overvalued exchange rate of the ruble. At the same time, the sharp devaluation of the ruble in 1998 is recognized as the main reason, which later ensured high growth rates of the Russian economy and its exports.
The question of the influence of exchange rate fluctuations on foreign trade indicators has been studied in scientific literature for more than a hundred years. However, it would be impulsive to believe that there is indisputable evidence in favor of the fact that such influence is decisive. In this case, the practical benefit would be the ability of the exchange rate to directly determine the dynamics of exports and imports.
In the scientific literature, in my opinion, insufficient attention is paid to the study of the dynamics and nature of bilateral trade on the background of fluctuations in the exchange rate. Meanwhile, the conditions in which international trade has developed over the past 25 years have undergone significant changes. There was a need to take a fresh look at the available data in order to try to answer the question of how often the changes in exports and imports can be associated with the dynamics of the exchange rate. If the frequency of such cases in practice is small, then the effectiveness of using the exchange rate as an instrument of foreign trade regulation under current conditions will be certainly low. Clarification of this issue would also help to develop a more balanced view on the consequences of the devaluation of the ruble for Russian foreign trade and, accordingly, would stimulate the search for other, more effective instruments for regulating Russia's foreign trade.
Literature and previous scientific studies review. General questions of the theory of international trade, including the determination of the factors affecting its structure and dynamics, were deeply developed in the writings of many scholars, such as A. Smith, D. Ricardo, A. Marshall, T. Boggs, J. Hobson, E. Heckscher, B. Olin, P. Krugman, M. Porter and others.
The study of the effect of fluctuations in the exchange rate on foreign trade indicators was initiated at the end of the 19th century by A. Marshall and continued in the first half of the twentieth century by A. Lerner and J. Robinson, who developed the main theoretical postulates used up to now. In addition, the period includes the work of the Russian and Soviet scholarly Z. Katsenelenbaum. In the future, this direction was developed by S. Alexander, R. Mundell, R. Dornbusch, B. Balassa, T. Gilfason, J. Stiglitz, P. Krugman, and others. Ayvazyan, A.V. Tsimaylo, M.V. Ershov, V.V. Popov, B.E. Brodsky, A.C. Selischev, C.B. Kotelkin, A. Kudrin, A. Blank, E. Gurvich, O. Solntsev, V. Starodubovsky, I. Kharlanov and others.
Since this issue is related to external competitiveness, one way or another he was raised in the works on this subject by M. Porter, and in Russia, such economists as S.A. Afontsev, P.S. Zavyalov, V.B. Kondratiev, I.S. Korolev, G.V. Kulikov, Yu.V. Kurenkov, V.A. Oreshkin, D.V. Smyslov, Yu.V. Shishkov, N.I. Yacheistov and others.
Among the empirical studies conducted at the level of aggregated foreign trade indicators of countries, it is necessary to mention the works of T. Gilfason, P. Hooper, F. Klaassen, J. Brouwer, K. Baum, J. Kurihara, and in Russia E. Gurvich, A. Klepach, A. Kudrin, A. Navoi, Yu. Ponomarova, and others. Among the studies that address this problem at the sectoral level are the works of such economists as V. Kontorovich, O. Osipova, M. Petronevich, E. Pogrebnyak, O. Solntseva and others, and abroad – J. Young, T. Klitgard, M. Bachmani-Oskoe, etc.
A characteristic feature of theoretical works on the impact of the exchange rate on foreign trade is that they do not take into account the structure of currencies used to service foreign trade operations of specific countries. Meanwhile, in practice, it differs significantly from the one that is assumed in theoretical constructions. The work of foreign economists such as L. Goldberg, S. Tille, I. Takatoshi, J. Yui, J. Yongdin and, in Russia, the works of S.М. Borisova, L.N. Krasavina, LI Hamsters.
The impact of the exchange rate on foreign trade is actually at the intersection of several spheres of economic science. Thus, some aspects of this problem are studied in works on economic and monetary integration, among whose authors such scientists as T.V. Valovaya, V.P. Gutnik, A.V. Zakharov, A.V. Kuznetsov, I.N. Platonova, S.N. Silvestrov, B.M. Smitienko, A.A. Suetin, I.P.
Faminsky, E.S. Hesin, N.P. Shmelev et al.
At the same time, insufficient attention is paid to research the behavior of exports and imports in comparison with each other, and not through the trade balance indicator, against the background of currency fluctuations. Also, the conditions of foreign economic activity and the structure of international trade that have changed significantly in the last 25 years, such as the growth of the share of intra-company trade, and the dominance of reserve currencies rather than national currencies in the structure of payments under foreign trade contracts remain insufficiently considered.
The aim of the work is to analyze the contradictions in theoretical views on the impact of the exchange rate on foreign trade, as well as the features of modern international trade, which distort such influence. Based on this, the example of leading countries (USA, China, Japan, Germany, Great Britain, France, Italy, Canada) and Russia shows how often in the current world economy the increase in commodity exports and the reduction in imports can be associated with a weakening national currency (nominal and real) and vice versa, a reduction in exports and an increase in imports – with its strengthening.
To achieve this goal, the following tasks were identified (NOT ALL MIGHT BE DONE DUE TO THE TIME FRAME):
1. Consider the evolution of theoretical provisions describing the impact of the exchange rate (nominal and real) on the country's foreign trade, in tandem with the changing nature of international trade and the world monetary system.
2. To study current theoretical positions on this issue and to determine to what extent they are consistent in the conditions of modern international trade and are consistent with other proven provisions of economic science.
3. Conduct a comparative analysis of the dynamics of bilateral trade of leading countries and exchange rates of their national currencies for the existence of a link between them corresponding to the idea of the stimulating effect of the weakening of the currency on exports and overwhelming – on imports.
4. Conduct an analogous analysis of the external trade of Russia.
5. Identify the characteristics of modern foreign trade of leading countries, which distort the possible impact of the exchange rate factor.
6. Consider the problems arising from the use of the exchange rate factor to regulate Russia's foreign trade.
The object of the study is trade relations within a group of leading foreign countries, their relations with major trading partners, as well as foreign trade of Russia.
The subject of the study is the behavior of foreign trade of the leading countries in response to fluctuations in the rates of their national currencies.
The chronological scope of the study covers the period 1994-2015. This choice was determined by the availability of comparable statistics of bilateral trade and exchange rates of the countries in question.
The methodological and theoretical basis of the work was made by the provisions of fundamental economic science, the theory of international trade, as well as international monetary and financial relations formulated in the works of domestic and foreign scientists, expert studies and assessments on the problems of foreign exchange rates on foreign trade, reports of international economic organizations, research institutes, as well as official documents of government agencies of several countries.
For the study, general scientific principles of cognition, concrete historical, systemic and other approaches, were used to study the phenomena and processes in development, to reveal contradictions, to correlate the essential characteristics and forms of their manifestation. Also, methods of analysis and synthesis, expert assessments were used, but the main part of the research was carried out using the method of graphical analysis.
Informational and statistical basis of the research
The databases of the International Monetary Fund, the US Department of Commerce, the Federal State Statistics Service, the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, the United Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System of the Russian Federation, as well as information from the Bank of Russia, the Bank for International Settlements, UNCTAD, WTO, and other international financial and economic organizations. Also scientific monographs and articles on the problem under study are going to be used in the work.