The future is uncertain and there will be risks – actuaries are professionals to depend on in finding ways to manage those risks and probabilities in a fluctuating economy and society. Actuaries evaluate the probabilities of future events using statistical data and design innovative ways to decrease the chances of undesirable events and their negative impact. Majority of actuaries are employed in the insurance industry, but are not limited to the one field. Therefore, most of their work is to analyze trends such as mortality, accident, illness, and retirement rates, just to name a few. As an actuary, it is imperative for the individual to have a strong understanding in business matters and be certified as a professional statistician to create optimum retirement plans, modify insurance policies, to assess various probabilities, and provide insight for financial soundness. The occupation calls for proficiency in critical thinking, which will aid individuals to logically identify alternative solutions and allow for more rational judgments in an environment of changing trends. This links to actuaries’ enterprising interests, for they must take risks in their decision-making. Actuaries should have the ability to communicate information and their ideas effectively and clearly so others can understand; it prompts efficient skills in face to face discussions and teamwork. Additional quotidian tasks may be to analyze probabilities of natural disasters and unemployment or collaborate with programmers to assist companies with their development of plans in bettering business and ameliorating company procedures. These tasks are generally executed in indoor settings with most work done electronically (“Actuaries, n.d).
Part Two – Summaries of Empirical Articles
Article 1 – Scientific and Policy Needs for Improved Forecasting Models for Elderly Population. With the rapid growth of the “elderly and oldest-old population,” more uncertainty is anticipated in terms of actuarial projections (Manton, Singer, & Suzman, 1993). The demographic aged 85 and over has the highest reported health service use; measuring the prevalence of chronic disease and mortality indicate the effectiveness of the current health systems. Forecasting the fluctuations of “health and functional characteristics” within the elderly demographic is crucial to national social programs and is essential for modifying our nation’s public health policies for the long-term. By analyzing changes in “mortality, morbidity, and disabilit[ies],” actuaries can plan budget outlays and evaluate various liabilities. The methodologies of finding such data include using actuarial models based on life tables, census reports, “clinical investigations”, past prevalence rates, or community cases. To anticipate fiscal or economic threats, actuaries take the described experiences from a sample of insured individuals and turn these experiences into calculable information (Manton, Singer, & Suzman, 1993).
Article 2 – An Evaluation of Well-Being Scales for Public Health and Population Estimates of Well-Being among US Adults. To assess the well-being of a population, “measurable indicators” should go beyond the common factors. New indicators of health include, the quality of personal relationships, emotional management, their physical and mental functioning, and their perception of self-actualization (Kobau et al., 2010). Only analyzing morbidity, mortality, and risk factors “fail to capture” an individual’s true well-being, which is defined as a “dynamic and relative state where one maximizes his or hers physical, mental, and social functioning in…supportive environments to live… a productive life” (Kobau et al., 2010). Multiple U.S public health systems utilize questionnaires to evaluate factors of well-being, including the Quality of Well-Being Scale. Such scales cover overall satisfaction of life, autonomy and competence levels, domain-specific satisfaction, and positive or negative affect items (Kobau et al., 2010).
For this study, the HealthStyles questionnaire was launched for pilot testing. Data was analyzed with SPSS. Inter-item correlation was evaluated, as well as the differences between demographics (sex, age, race/ethnicity, etc.). The experimenters found slight differences between for each domain – women scored higher overall on the Satisfaction with Life Scale than men, middle-aged adults scored lower than the two extremes on all scales, and Whites had slightly higher satisfaction scores compared to Hispanics and Blacks. The major takeaway is represented by the good variability across the subgroups and domain-specific life satisfaction items. Within the domain-specific life scale, questions about the accessibility of health and social services are of interest for public health providers and actuaries. Scores on this category aids the development of insurance, health systems, or social welfare that is fitting for specific groups (Kobau et al., 2010).
Article 3 – Development of a Clinical Prediction Model to Calculate Patient Life Expectancy: The Measure of Actuarial Life Expectancy (MALE). Subgroups such as, age, sex, and comorbidity are considered for the calculation of an individuals’ life expectancies and for determining future medical treatments. A software program is utilized to analyze tables that presents population trends, particularly life expectancy rates. These trends derived from a life table methodology which involved calculations about the desired population. In this system, categorical and numerical ratings are applied. For example, healthy individuals are considered those with “Standard Risks” and are to accept standard insurance (Clarke, Kennedy, & Macdonagh, 2008). Those with impairments and medical conditions are given numerical values that determine their mortality probabilities and are considered for different insurance packages and specific medical care. A list of medical conditions that are known to have stronger impacts on life expectancy trends are entered into the software. This in turn can calculate survivability; be useful to the patients, clinicians, and insurance companies in their decision-making processes in a medical outlook (Clarke, Kennedy, & Macdonagh, 2008).
Relevance to Findings to Occupation. The first article focuses on the elderly population and older demographic. In terms of insurance and public health programs, an actuary in this circumstance must have expertise on government policies and arithmetic to allocate rational advice to their clients who seek information about age-specific plans or certain financial issues. One of the central goals of an actuary (in the insurance industry) is to ensure companies and clients that benefits are given to the right people, in the right way. In this case, the actuaries analyzing trends in the population aged 85 and over should be keen with keeping up with the fluctuations in their society; to make sure the elderly are given the right medical services, retirement benefits, and the appropriate insurance plans that correlate to their medical history, mortality rates, and time frame. To keep up with the changes in trends and rates within this specific population, the actuary must have sharp critical thinking skills and be able to generate alternative solutions, especially in a limited time frame. The actuary should also be patient in terms of communication and be able to advise clients and organizations in an understandable and considerate manner. The performance review should cover aspects of knowledge of work and tasks, communication ability, and customer responsiveness, using a scale of “unsatisfactory to exceeding expectations.”
The second article concentrates on subgroup differences and a population’s level of well-being. Both are of interests to those in the field of public health, including actuaries. Actuaries have the responsibility of determining various policies to fit the peoples’ needs. Actuaries should consider multiple aspects in their data collection and analyses since the nation is comprised of multiple demographics, socioeconomic statuses, and other differing factors. Generalization is not perfect; therefore, actuaries should be aware of the trends and rates in each of the demographic clusters. Measuring factors of well-being and overall satisfaction is a step beyond what is commonly evaluated. The well-being of individuals fall into the “health” category and correlates to the trends actuaries assess. The article discusses the relationship between satisfaction and mortality, health, and productivity in life. Thus, it is of interest that actuaries are innovative in their methods to discover new, yet useful information.
The third article focuses on the assessment of life expectancy rates. In the article, it was mentioned that a team of actuaries and clinicians worked together to determine life expectancy rates for various medical cases. The actuaries in this study were to analyze the life expectancy rates that corresponded with a medical condition. From there, insurance plans and medical services were determined for each condition. In this situation, actuaries work with medical experts, organizations, and individual clients. It is imperative for actuaries to be able to work in team or group settings and can be depended on to complete their assigned tasks. In a performance review, cooperation/teamwork abilities can be measured by peer evaluation, observation, or strength of external company partnership. Overall, many industries cannot function without actuaries. They are individuals who make a difference in our financial and politically complex world.