Keeping the goal of the liberal party in mind, it is important to construct a critical analysis of their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for the upcoming election. This means taking an unbiased look at the parties leadership, the current political climate, key campaign issues, the prior 2015 election results, fundraising, candidates, and target ridings.
The leadership as of now is one of the greatest weaknesses of the party. Despite Mr. Trudeau reaching out to young audiences like never before, he has also come with an ever low approval rating. Just how low? “Mr. Trudeau’s own approval rating is lower than U.S. President Donald Trump’s.” (Margaret Wente, 2019) Recent polls show only 35% of Canadians approve of the Trudeau government. (Margaret Wente, 2019) This is relatively equal to the percentage who approved of Harper’s government back in 2014. (Margaret Wente, 2019)
Many Canadians feel the real issues are not being addressed, and the money is being wasted on pointless bills and objectives. For example, Bill C-69, which states project components now have to take into account “the intersection of sex and gender with other identity factors.” (Margaret Wente, 2019) This of course has nothing related to pumping oil and is wasting resources focussing on problems that won’t help Canadians. (Margaret Wente, 2019) The liberal party finds itself in the middle of the political spectrum, which can have its advantages and disadvantages. The liberal party wants to help stop climate change, however have implemented a carbon tax that’s too low to influence Canadians behaviour, but high enough to irritate people. (Margaret Wente, 2019)
There has been few controversies and scandals during prime minister trudeau’s leadership. However, the current and most significant of the few being the current on going SNC-Lavalin Construction Inc investigation. The scandal is ongoing as of March 2019 and is going to hurt the Liberals in the upcoming election. The company SNC-Lavalin Construction Inc had been charged with fraud and corruption. (Staff, N. P, 2019) If convicted the company may be banned from working on government contracts for 10 years. (Staff, N. P, 2019) In 2016, shortly after the election, the company began have meetings with the Minister of Public Services and Procurement, Carla Qualtrough, as well as officials in the Prime Minister’s Office to attempt to change legislation quickly to avoid the penalties facing the company. (Staff, N. P, 2019) The Prime Minister’s Office then inappropriately pressured the Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould to intervene in ongoing criminal legal proceedings against SNC-Lavalin and abandon prosecution. (Staff, N. P, 2019) Prime Minister Trudeau came out with a statement saying this never happened and then Jody Wilson-Raybould suspiciously resigned from her duty as Attorney General. (Harris, K, 2019) The case has not come to a conclusion yet, however regardless it looks very bad on the Liberal Party but more importantly Justin Trudeau as a leader.
Today’s political climate is without a question leaning more and more left. Countries like Sweden are becoming more and more popular by having more socialist governments. There is far more movies, television, podcasts, social media in general, and online magazines leaning left then there are ones leaning right. With that being said this current political climate is the perfect time for the liberals to take advantage as they are a center-left political party.
A strength the liberal party has is their campaign issues. They cover a wide variety of topics that would apply to a very wide audience. The liberal party wants to invest in our future by building stronger, greener communities and put a larger effort toward climate change. (Liberal Party, 2019) Helping middle class citizens, families and young Canadians with tax cuts and better services are also on their list of campaign issues. (Liberal Party, 2019) Maintaining an open and honest government is always something they strive for as well the continued support for LGBT and immigrant rights. (Liberal Party, 2019) They also want support our military and put more money toward public services to ensure a greater quality service. (Liberal Party, 2019) Agriculture is very important for Canada, as it takes up a large majority of our land, and the liberals are going to invest more into that as well. Poverty is always a big campaign issue for the liberal party, and they intend to help mitigate the poverty levels in Canada in the upcoming election. (Liberal Party, 2019) The continued support and regulation of legalized weed in Canada is a crucial part of their upcoming campaign as well. (Liberal Party, 2019) Finally, supporting business and the Canadian economy is one of the most important issues they face, but at the same time keeping climate change in mind. (Liberal Party, 2019) In the 2015 election, the Liberal Party was able to use one of its greatest strengths, the ability of getting young people involved and voting. The Liberal Party of Canada under the leadership of Justin Trudeau rebounded from third place in the House of Commons with 36/338 seats to a strong majority government with 184/338 seats in the House of Commons. (Clark, Campbell, 2016) Thats biggest numerical increase for a Canadian party since Confederation. There was an increase of 1.2 million voters among those under the age of 35 in the 2015 election and turnout between the ages 18 to 24 rose to 57.1%. (Clark, Campbell, 2016) This would be enough to swing the results of any election. The strength of this untapped market of potential voters was never seen until this election, and this will be very important for them in the upcoming election. Young voters could be the potential game changer for them once again.
In 2015, not only did the party climb from third to first, it was far less funded then there Conservative competitors. (Pammett, J. H., & Dornan, C, 2016, pg. 62) This has always been a problem for the liberals and will be a threat heading into the next election. The party has been slow to master direct mail lists and obtaining group donors. (Pammett, J. H., & Dornan, C, 2016, pg. 62) In 2004, Jean Chretien implemented legislation that eliminated corporate and union donations, which hurt the NDP and Liberals fundraising abilities. (Pammett, J. H., & Dornan, C, 2016, pg. 62) For example, in 2011, in the last quarter the conservatives raised 4.1 million whereas the liberals had raised 2.8 million. (Pammett, J. H., & Dornan, C, 2016, pg. 62) The liberals have gotten better in recent year far out fundraising the NDP, however the Conservatives still remain a threat. Time and time again the conservatives constantly out fundraise the liberals. Another example in 2015 in the first quarter, the conservatives raised 6.3 million to the liberals 3.8 million. (Pammett, J. H., & Dornan, C, 2016, pg. 63) Conservatives, and their ability to fundraise better than the Liberals, is the greatest threat the Liberal party faces.
Another strength for the Liberals is their impressive list of candidates as well the diversity of gender and ethnicity within that list. As stated before, in the last election, the liberal party set a new standard of inclusivity with 10 indigenous MPs and six LGBT MPs, they have been the most inclusive party yet. (Schwartz, D, 2015) A total of 21 candidates identified as LGBTQ. (Schwartz, D, 2015) The diversity in candidates can help reach a wider audience of voters and make sure that everyone feels they are being represented in government.
One of the major weaknesses in the Liberals ridings are the West. The Liberals have always done considerable better in the East and Central Canada. Canada’s two greatest provinces in terms of population and voters are Ontario and Quebec. With a background based out of Quebec, the party has always done best here. However, the West has always felt out of the loop and thrown to the side with the Liberal party. There concerns are not heard as well as those in Central Canada. There is a sense of alienation from the federal government with significantly less representation in government. ” (David Rayside, 2018) They are going to want to target this weakness in the West as well maintain the strength they have in Quebec and Ontario. (David Rayside, 2018)
Recommendations
To conclude the analysis of the Liberal party, here are a list of recommendations for the party to succeed in the upcoming election. The party needs to focus a great deal on their fundraising techniques and find a way to raise a relatively closer amount to their rival party the Conservatives. Their real focus should be beating the conservatives, as the NDP and the other parties are not a real threat. Besides, the NDP often support the Liberals once the Liberals win office. The party should have their leader touring in the West and should target the West greater in the upcoming election as they have started to lose faith in government listening to their concerns. As well, reaching out to younger audiences like they did in 2015 could be another game changer for them in the upcoming election. Liberal policies like universal healthcare, Canadian student loans, and the legalization of gay marriage and marijuana have helped define Canada as one of the most free, welcoming and greatest places to live on the planet. The Liberals need to continue to make great policies like these, ones that make the lives of all Canadian citizens better.
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