1. Introduction
In the process of achieving sustainability at a global level it is important to study the relationship between climate change and poverty, as anthropogenic climate change constitutes a major threat to the development of disadvantaged communities, especially of those in the global south (Webersik, 2010). A change in climatic conditions can have detrimental consequences, such as more frequent extreme weather conditions like heat waves, droughts, changes in regional precipitation levels and a rise of sea levels (NASA, 2018).
Especially countries that struggle economically are unlikely to prioritise climate change mitigation, while these countries are the ones that will be most negatively affected by climate change (Mendelsohn, Dinar & Williams, 2006). Therefore, climate change and poverty are intertwined, and the 1987 Brundtland report suggests that solving poverty is essential for achieving sustainability (Mulligan, 2018).
However, the connection between climate change and poverty extends beyond the direct impacts of one on the other. It entails a much wider scope that has been assembled into the 17 Sustainable Development Goals set by the UN in 2015. These include the goals to eliminate poverty and encourage climate action, which are mutually influenced by other relevant goals such as the need to eradicate hunger and the aim to increase health and wellbeing. In addition, securing people’s safety and prosperity allows them to start thinking about how to mitigate their impact on climate change and develop in a sustainable way. Using this broader picture of interdependent variables is essential for developing integrative solutions.
Agriculture is the primary area through which poor communities will be affected by climate change, as temperature increases will cause droughts to become more frequent, making it harder to produce food on arid land (Gornall et al., 2010). This is problematic since the majority of African countries relies on agriculture as a substantial part of their economies and the population as a source of income (source). If agricultural production declines, poverty will increase.
One country struggling with this very issue is Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast is a suitable representative of the potential consequences of climate change since the country is heavily reliant on cocoa production (World Bank, n.d.). In addition, the country’s land conditions are not unique in the world. Therefore, by looking at Ivory Coast’s situation, solutions and mitigation strategies to this problem can be determined, which can also be implemented in other countries with similar conditions.
This paper will illustrate how climate change will be a driver of, but also be enhanced by poverty in Ivory Coast and that these problems cannot be tackled individually. The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of climate change on the livelihoods of Ivorian cocoa farmers and to examine current and potential measures to increase the country’s resilience to future climate change through the cocoa sector.
Reader’s guide
The question we want to answer in this paper is: How does climate change affect cocoa farmers’ livelihoods in Ivory Coast and what can be done to make the cocoa industry more resilient? We will do this by first analysing the problems that the cocoa industry is facing and what the causes of those problems are. We will do this following the DPSIR model. After explaining the problems we will review a number of possible solutions, analyse their impacts on people, planet and profit and explain why these solutions are not implemented yet.
2. Problems
In order to get a better understanding of the issue at hand, an overview of the various parts that play a role in causing the problem is needed. For that reason, the DPSIR model will be used to analyse the effects of climate change on Ivory Coast’s cocoa production and indirectly on its population. As climate change is a global problem, its drivers are not location-specific. Therefore, in order to carry out a comprehensive analysis, driving forces and pressures across the globe have to be taken into account.
Ivory Coast's economy
The economy of Ivory Coast heavily depends on agriculture. The agricultural sector makes up 27% of the GDP, and with two-thirds of the country's population employed in this sector (World Bank, n.d.), nearly five million of its inhabitants are dependent on the cocoa sector as a source of income (World Bank, n.d.). According to the Ivorian Ministry of Economy and Finance (2018), the country produced 1,762 kilotons of cocoa in 2018, which suggests a yield of 400 and 500 kg per hectare (Coulibaly, 2011). However, most farmers’ annual cocoa yields are far from optimal; on West African farms, a hectare has a potential yield of 800 kg of cocoa (Tony’s Chocolonely, 2017).
46.3% of the Ivorian population lives below the poverty line (Trading Economics, 2015). This percentage is even higher amongst smallholder cocoa farmers ( Rusman, Adelhart Toorop, De Boer & De Groot Ruiz, 2018). Their yields remain low due to a variety of reasons to be discussed later. According to Rusman et al. (2018), farmers in rural Ivory Coast earn only 37% of an income considered to be the minimum. With cocoa as the farmers' main source of income, and only 23% of farmers earning above the poverty line (Rusman et al., 2018), child labour and unpaid labour are prevalent on many farms, as are bad working circumstances (Fobelets & De Groot Ruize, 2016).
Drivers
When looking at driving forces of climate change and poverty in Ivory Coast, it is important to look at the human development of the entire world in terms of economic processes and demographics. Rosa, Rudel, York, Andrew & Dietz (2015) have pointed out that a major driving force of greenhouse gas emissions is population size. Figure 1 shows an exponential growth, and with a growth rate of 2.5% (World Population Review, 2018), this will continue. Rosa et al. (2015) do, however, argue that the degree of affluence in a society should be taken into account when examining the impacts of population growth. They suggest that the recent rise of middle classes in less-developed countries has led to “rapid increases in demand for consumer goods […] that place substantial pressure on the environment” (p. 38). These developments include the demand for automated vehicles, meat and luxury goods. It is clear that the market responds to this, which will lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions through livestock farming and fossil fuel combustion for production and mobility, amongst others. With the world population expected to reach almost ten billion people by 2050 (United Nations, 2017), prospects are that climate change will only be reinforced.
Figure 1 Population development of Ivory Coast since 2008 (Trading Economics, 2017)
Pressures
The pressures Ivory Coast experiences are a combination of human interventions and natural processes which are inflicting on the environment, but certainly, the main pressure is climate change.
As visible in Figure 2, the agricultural area in Ivory Coast has increased strongly since 1975 while forest area has declined (USGS, 2015), suggesting that deforestation has taken place to facilitate agriculture. Indeed, a combination of poverty and soil degradation caused by climate change has lead to many farmers migrating to protected forest areas that are still suitable for cocoa production (Wessel & Quist-Wessel 2015). According to Global Forest Watch (n.d.), Ivory Coast lost 17% of its forest area since 2000, which is equivalent to 220 Mt of CO2 emissions. This is an example of how climate change is both a driver and an impact of climate change. Climate change impacts cause nutrient depletion of arable land, which leads to a decrease in cocoa production and thereby reduces the income of smallholder farmers. The resulting poverty creates a need for further deforestation and the continuation of destructive farming methods, which again causes CO2 emissions. In this way, climate change is enhanced by its own effects. This creates a positive feedback loop which might become detrimental to the economy in Ivory Coast, as it could fully inhibit cocoa production as a source of income.
Figure 2 Land use in Ivory Coast in 1975 (upper left) and 2013 (upper right) (from USGS, 2015).
State
The consequences of climate change on the cocoa sector and the country as a whole are extensive. Heavy rains already affected the country when in June 2018 Abidjan, the Ivory Coast's commercial capital, was hit by floods, causing the death of 21 people and extensive property damage (Reliefweb, 2018). Rising sea levels and an increasing prevalence of extreme weather events continue to threaten coastal regions.
In addition, climate change is expected to cause increasing temperatures and more and longer droughts in Ivory Coast (Schroth, Läderach, Isaac Martinez-Valle, Bunn, Jassogne, 2016). Areas with an altitude of up to 400 meters will become less suitable because of the increased temperature and the resulting increase in evaporation. At 100 – 250 meter above sea level (masl) are the current optimum growing areas which will become less suitable for growing cocoa because of the climate change induced temperature rise. There are a few suitable areas above 400-450 masl; they will benefit from this change but are not large enough to compensate for the loss of growing areas under 400 masl (Läderach, Martinez-Valle, Schroth & Castro, 2013) (Figure 3).
Kroeger, Koenig, Thomson & Streck (2017) have pointed out that deforestation leads to a loss of ‘ecological resilience of the landscape’ (no quote but not yet paraphrased). They argue that deforestation intensifies the “impacts of heavy rains and flooding and decreases soil fertility”. “Poor soils also complicate renovation of old and degraded farms because they limit the tree varieties that can be planted without expensive fertilizers.” (Kroeger et al., 2017)
As a result of poor agricultural practices and prospects of increased droughts and longer yield gaps, the country faces desertification and loss of arable land. Optimal conditions for cocoa trees are determined by temperature, rainfall, humidity and shade. When an annual average temperature of 38 °C is reached, cocoa trees will stop producing (Läderach et al., 2013). While cocoa can be grown in extreme rainfall circumstances ranging from less than 100 mm a year to almost 5000 mm a year, it is one of the most sensitive plants when it comes to water shortage (FAO, 1968). Rainfall should be well-distributed throughout the year and careful water management is needed to overcome drier period (FAO, 1968).
According to the World Bank (2018), "rising temperatures […] could dry out the soil and reduce its fertility". According to Kroeger et al. (2017), the "climate models show a decline in the area that will be suitable for cocoa cultivation in the region." "Rising temperatures, variable rainfall, and the increased frequency and severity of extreme climatic events is project to raise the incidence of pests and diseases and subject farmers to irregular rainfall" (Kroeger et al., 2017).
Wessel & Quist-Wessel (2015) identify poor soil, deprecated trees and pests and diseases as the primary causes for mediocre cocoa yields. The trees should not be in the direct sun, as this increases tree mortality and can lead to yield decline (Wessel & Quist-Wessel, 2015). This especially is important for younger, growing trees (International Cocoa Organization, 2013).
To conclude, the cocoa industry is not prepared for and highly susceptible to climate change. Ivory coast is therefore vulnerable to climate change through their economy's dependence on this sector. (The World Bank, n.d.)
Figure 3 Current and future climatic suitability for cocoa production within cocoa-growing regions of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. Suitability change for cocoa growing-regions by 2050 and measurements of agreement and Coefficient of Variation of results. The used evidence points are compared to the CV map (from Läderach et al., 2013)
Impacts
The environmental changes will affect different aspects of human well-being. The economy might slow down due to environmental degradation and the decline in the agriculture industry can damage the GDP. Agriculture might face a decrease in productivity while higher temperatures will reduce labor efficiency. Social consequences emerge for the farmers who experience lower incomes with associated problems like too little spendable income to buy food and reduced access to healthcare. At a larger scale people might leave their homes and move to cities or even emigrate as climate-change refugees. Resource depletion could even cause war outbreaks as seen in other countries. This puts a burden on western countries with the huge inflow of refugees. The World Bank (2018) indicates that the expected sea level rise will be detrimental to Ivory Coast's infrastructure, safety and economy.
TO BE INCLUDED
Figure 1 DPSIR model assessment on the effects of climate change on cocoa production in Ivory Coast
3. Solutions
A transformation of the cocoa supply chain in Ivory Coast is essential for securing its sustainability, profitability and resilience to climate change. Whereas individual actors can play an important role, a joint collaboration between all stakeholders in the cocoa industry might be most effective in attaining the environmental, social and economic standards that are required in order to alleviate poverty. A report by Kroeger et al. (2017) identifies five different actors that should play a role in financing and supporting the development and enhancement of the cocoa industry in Ivory Coast and Ghana. These are producer country governments, development finance institutions, financial institutions and investment funds, supply chain companies and civil society organisations. The needed transition requires interdisciplinary collaboration between these actors and farmers and is focused on the implementation of better agricultural techniques, improving economic conditions, securing farmers’ wellbeing and encouraging investments in the cocoa industry.
The report by Kroeger et al. (2017) introduces a set of measures which aim at adapting the current production methods to the estimated impacts of future climate change. These measures can be summarised under the term ‘climate-smart cocoa’ (CSC). As one aspect of CSC Kroeger et al. (2017) suggest renovation and rehabilitation (R&R) methods to increase the productivity of existing cocoa plantations. Renovation includes the replacement of old or sick, and therefore unproductive, cocoa trees with new seedlings. Preferably, these seedlings are of improved, climate smart breeds. Additionally, the soil can be replenished with moderate fertilizer use. Rehabilitation involves the implementation of yield-enhancing tree management methods like grafting and pruning, as well as the inclusion of a variety of shade, timber and fruit trees in the production field, as has also been suggested by Jacobi et al. (2015). Moreover, shade trees play a crucial role in diminishing the impacts of climate change, as they protect the cocoa trees from insolation and increased heat. Kroeger et al. (2017) propose the use of pesticides to prevent the outbreak of diseases and pests. However, they acknowledge that many farmers lack the knowledge of the proper implementation of synthetic chemicals. Furthermore, considering the harmful effects of pesticides and herbicides, organic farming appears to be the better alternative. The same study also suggests that, at some cocoa sites, “climate suitability assessment” (Kroeger et al., 2015, p. 23) might propose a crop change. Furthermore, the study argues that disease barriers – strips of land with vegetation excluding cocoa trees – are highly effective to prevent the spread of Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD), the prevalent cocoa tree disease.
The implementation of these measures would slowly transform the cocoa plantations into climate change-resilient agroforestry systems, in which trees create a relatively humid and cool microclimate, and the soil is less prone to erosion by water and wind (Kroeger et al., 2017). (Agro)forests therefore act as a buffer for “climate change impacts such as droughts and extreme weather events” and help to maintain soil quality (Jacobi et al., 2015). A reduction of soil erosion would lower the necessity for further deforestation. Additional reforestation would increase the land’s ecological resilience.
Agroforests are capable of producing a wide variety of products including “timber, fruit, fodder, construction material, natural medicine, and ornamental plants” (Jacobi et al., 2015). According to Jacobi et al. (2015), diversification of the crops that are grown generates additional income and reduces the monetary risk that comes with diminished yields and cocoa price cuts. The researchers added that the additional production of comestibles improves the farmers self-sufficiency and supports a healthy, varied diet. In the prospect of climate change-induced food price increases and reduced yields, this can be a major factor to ensure smallholders’ food security. Moreover, the shade provided by agroforestry systems is not only beneficial to the cocoa trees, but also to the farm workers’ wellbeing. It was observed that the climate change induced rise of day temperatures is already affecting Bolivian farm employees’ productivity (Jacobi et al., 2015). Apart from cocoa plantations, shade trees could also be an option for other agricultural producers in Sub-Saharan Africa, as long as their crops allow it.
The study conducted by Jacobi et al. (2015) amongst Bolivian farmers observed that, for the process of organic certification, most of the surveyed farmers got involved with cocoa related (non-governmental) organisations or farmers corporations. This resulted in facilitated access to educational training and improved seedlings, and also provided a form of social insurance. The farmers organization mentioned in the study strengthened social solidarity between the farmers, and the farmers could rely on the organisation’s help in case something unforeseen happened, such as a pest outbreak. In addition, Jacobi et al. (2015) noticed that organic agriculture is in line with many farmers' ethical values, and found that farmers expressed their pride to produce a healthy product and steer clear of potentially harmful chemicals. Finally, due to better knowledge and farm management techniques like R&R, cocoa yields were higher on organic farms (Jacobi et al., 2015). The report concluded that “organic cocoa farms were more likely to be diversified, efficient, and resilient, because most organic farmers implemented agroforestry systems, had access to knowledge resources and were socially better connected”. In the long run, the benefits of organic certification may cause farmers to voluntarily transition towards more productive and sustainable agricultural techniques.
Complying with certain social and environmental production standards set by organisations such as Fairtrade International or the Rainforest Alliance enables farmers to receive a premium for their cocoa. Farmers' net income has shown to increase almost fourfold on farms that are supported and certified by the Rainforest Alliance (Rainforest Alliance, 2012). As observed by the Rainforest Alliance (2012), educational levels of children are positively affected by certification of their family's farm.
Achieving high yields is especially important, as climate change tends to reduce suitable land for cocoa production and the export of cocoa is a valuable source of national income. According to an evaluation report by the Rainforest Alliance (2012), cocoa yield of certified producers can exceed that of conventional producers by as much as 70%, whilst keeping the costs at approximately the same level. Fobelets & De Groot Ruiz (2016) have pointed out that, on average, profits of certified farms are 49% higher than those of non-certified farms. However, despite the benefits of certification, 58% of Fairtrade farmers still lived below the extreme poverty line in 2016 (Rusman et al., 2018). Still, this is significantly less than the 93% of conventional farmers in that same year (Rusman et al., 2018).
A major roadblock that is currently hampering transition to more sustainable and effective agricultural practices is the lack of expertise and finance that is necessary for climate-smart cocoa production. Despite the fact that the absolute costs of renovation and rehabilitation in Ivory Coast's cocoa plantations are difficult to estimate, Kroeger et al. (2017) have predicted the “long-term establishment costs” to amount to twenty-billion US dollars (p. 31). They therefore emphasise the need for supplementary investments in renovation and rehabilitation of cocoa plantations.
For the transition of Ivorian livelihoods towards climate change resilience, private investments in the cocoa industry are essential. However, Kroeger et al. (2017) argue that a combination of technological and financial barriers causes private investors to be reluctant about financing a shift towards climate-smart cocoa production. Furthermore, with its heavy dependence on various factors such as weather and politics, the cocoa market has been historically volatile (see Figure 4). Therefore, in order to successfully make the transition to more sustainable and effective agricultural practices, there is a need for risk reduction for foreign investors in the cocoa sector. A decision-making tool developed in joint collaboration by the Rainforest Alliance and Mars Incorporated allows stakeholders in the cocoa industry to “better understand the investment required and discuss the opportunities for the implementation of large-scale investment loan vehicle for intervention” (Buckles & Roy, 2013, p. 1).
Figure 4
Cocoa prices between 2008 and 2018. Prices are in USD/metric tonne.
(Trading Economics, n.d.)
The Joint Framework for Action initiated by the Cocoa & Forests Initiative, which has been signed by the governments of Ivory Coast and Ghana, as well as most of the largest chocolate manufacturers, focuses on increasing cocoa production in those countries to avoid expansion towards protected forest areas. It encourages a transition to ‘climate-smart cocoa production’, implementing Renovation and Rehabilitation practices and empowering farmers' organisations. In addition, it aims to “promote financial inclusion and innovation to deepen farmers’ access to working capital and investment funds required for production and farm renovation” (Cocoa & Forests Initiative, 2017, p. 4). The framework includes the aim to encourage investment in sustainable cocoa production (Cocoa & Forests Initiative, 2017).
The question remains whether production levels are, and will be, the primary cause of poverty in Ivory Coast. Besides production levels, global cocoa prices play an important role in the farmers’ revenue. A substantial factor in the nation's poverty appears to be the price that farmers receive for their cocoa. A study by The True Price and IDH suggests that, when externalities are included, the price of one kilogram of cocoa should be as much as five times higher than it currently is (Fobelets & De Groot Ruiz, 2016). These externalities include both environmental and social costs such as land use, soil pollution, income, forced labour and child labour. Nonetheless, cocoa prices fluctuate daily and are determined by futures markets in London and New York (International Cocoa Organization, n.d.). Since 2012, the Ivorian government sets the farm gate prices of cocoa in order to comply with IMF terms (Schweisguth, 2015). This poses an opportunity for policymakers in Ivory Coast to address the problem of poverty amongst smallholder farmers, as a higher and more stable farm gate price would secure a viable income for farmers. However, production has repeatedly surpassed optimum levels, which has forced the Ivorian government to introduce dramatic cuts in farmers' cocoa prices as recently as 2017 (Monnier, 2017).
While certification has proven to be beneficial to farmers, many systematic changes still need to take place to successfully lift farmers out of poverty, as a living income is not secured by Fairtrade, Rainforest Alliance or organic certification alone. How fast the transition to climate smart and resilient cocoa production might occur is dependent on the efforts stakeholders make in the near future. It will take time until smallholders are trained and able to implement the improved farming methods, seedlings must become accessible, and the planted trees need time to grow. Cocoa trees become productive after 3-5 years (International Cocoa Organization, 1998). It also might take some time on the political level to plan the countries land use under consideration of its area specific future climate suitability.
4. Conclusion
Aim The aim of this paper was to assess the impacts of climate change on the livelihoods of Ivorian cocoa farmers and to examine current and potential measures to increase the resilience of the countries’ cocoa sector to future climate change.
Problem summary The research has shown that the country’s heavy dependence on the cocoa crop threatens the nation's economy and the livelihoods and future outlook of millions of inhabitants. The problems that Ivory Coast is facing due to climate change are soil degradation, increased droughts and temperatures and more volatile rainfall. These changing circumstances all affect the country’s cocoa production and threaten its development. In addition, the population keeps growing and industrialization keeps burdening the environmental state, which will ultimately result in an increase in poverty.
Need for action Solving these problems requires global collaboration, effective and innovative solutions, and sufficient investment in the cocoa sector to make a transition happen. However, as long as people in Ivory Coast remain poor, they will not consider the transition to sustainable agriculture as their top priority.
Solutions summary A shift in agricultural practices for cocoa production will enhance Ivory Coast’s economy and reduce the nation’s poverty. This shift comprises the renovation and rehabilitation of present cocoa farms and a broad scale development towards more effective and sustainable agricultural methods. These are effective measures and techniques to rehabilitate and reinvent the cocoa supply chain, so that it becomes more profitable, beneficial to farmers and environment and resilient to climate change.
Limitations The major limitation of this paper is that it does not take into account the uncertainty of the continuing effect and gravity of climate change on the degradation of the country. Unexpected natural disaster can hamper progress, like the increase flooding or the upcoming of new diseases for which the country is not prepared. It does not measure how effective the solutions will be to combat the projected climate change impacts. More research on climate change projection on Ivory Coast and on the effectiveness of the compensation strategies needs to be undertaken. In spite of these limitations, studies have shown that the solutions are certainly effective for enhancing the cocoa farms’ resilience and reducing the poverty of cocoa farmers.
Recommendation