Mid Term Elections and Its impact on Trump Administration
Syed N Zaidi
American Government 101
Bergen Community College
Date 12/17/2018
Abstract
The midterm election is seen as a gauge to measure the performance of the sitting president. It is regarded as a referendum by the people on the sitting government policies. The stakes are high as the ruling party wants to consolidate its position in both houses of Congress, while the opposition party wants to flip or at least maintain its position in the House of Representative and Senate.
I will review leading publications and present analysis of the political pundits about the optimism of Democrats party for the upcoming 2018, Midterm elections as they see a blue wave. Its subsequent impact on Trump administration on controversies ranging from Russian elections medaling investigation, govt collusion and corruption, immigration and border wall.
We are living in the interesting times as interestingly shared by Professor. Wilkinson, where the country is very politically divided due to strong partisan politics being played by President Trump which has inflamed passion for and against him. His opponents are calling for greater than ever need for people to come forward, in order to assert their opinions by participating in Midterm elections. Both Democrats and Republicans have organized massive rallies and corner meetings across the country, to sway the voters in their favor and to encourage them to turn out in large numbers on the election day.
Democrats turned to tested and proliferate speakers like former President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama to energize their voters base. Furthermore, Notable celebrities like Taylor Swift, Rihanna, Beyoncé, and Oprah Winfrey openly touted their support for the Democratic candidates. Apart from that, there were some well-known celebrities and artists on the Republican side of the aisle also like Kanye West, Jon Voight, Scott Baio and many others who supported Republican candidates. (Taylor-Dior Rumble & Ian Youngs). These celebrities also used their social media presence in appealing to voters to get out and vote in order to fulfill their constitutional duty of strengthening democracy which contains the element of checks and balance as envisioned by the founding fathers.
Interestingly, Mr. Trump is touring all across the country, hoping to garner support for the Republican candidates for Midterm elections and also testing the water of his reelections campaign for 2020.
He is taking a two-pronged approach, on one hand Mr. Trump is projecting his current government accomplishments such as Tax break for working-class Americans, North Korean nuclear deal, Russian economic sanctions pertaining to election meddling, missile attack in Syria in response to reported use of chemical weapons by Assad regime, renegotiated NAFTA deals with Canada and Mexico, better USA economic outlook.
On the other hand, he has charged the election climate for voters on both sides of the fence. Inculcating fear and anxiety amongst the Americans voters furthermore, by twisting liberal stance of Democrats on immigration, as well as other issues. Portraying issues, as if the Democrats are lurking to abolish immigration laws which would provide free entry to all criminals, loss of jobs for American workers. Increase in national debt by the provision of free Medicare and Medicaid for all. Mr. Trump is also trying to turn Brett Kavanaugh confirmation into a cry for the Republican voters to show up and vote on November 6 elections to deny Democrats winning the House and the Senate. (Roberta Rampton, Reuters).
The stakes are high in this midterm's election and higher voter turnout is expected and predicted by most media houses. Democrats are representing more diverse racial mix up of nations population, comprising of younger, liberals' voters, especially women voters who are not only in suburban areas but are also mostly colleges educated. Minorities and seniors are also an important factor for Democrats. Republicans voters on contrary have been from rural areas, who are overwhelmingly white, older and identify themselves more on the conservative side Brian Schaffner (Pew Research Center).
While the votes have been counted and as projected, the 2018 elections featured historic turnout, thanks to a president who drove both parties to the polls. The midterms elections results were monumental in both raw vote totals and participation rates. According to one estimate, around 114 million ballots were cast, which turned out to be 31 million more than the midterms in 2014. According to the (Associated Press), the voter's turnout was stunning in Nov. 6 elections. It is dubbed as the highest total for a non-presidential election in U.S. history and the highest voter participation rate in a midterm election in at least 50 years. To put into perspective mathematically, an estimated 49.2% of eligible voters cast ballots in the midterms. If that percentage holds true after all ballots are accounted for, it would transcend the 48.7% turnout in 1966 elections. (Emily Stewart, The United States Elections Project).
Democrats are very upbeat about the blue wave that would flip both houses of Congress in their favor and will put them in a commanding position to hold Trump administration accountable. 35 Senate seats are up for grab in this 2018, Midterm elections out of which 26 are held by Democrats, what that means is that Democrats have a mammoth task of not only winning back their seats, of which 10 seats are from the state where Mr. Trump won in 2016 US election. But also securing some seats held by republican in order to win a majority in the upper house of Congress. In terms of lower House of Congress, Democrats have to win 20 seats in order to flip The House of Representative which appears to be within reach as compared to the Senate. (The Sun, David Hughes & Tahiq Tahir). In my opinion, there was a blue wave which gave Democrats majority in House of Representative, however, it lost its intensity in Senate as Republicans picked up more seats. But it is a welcome change, as it gives Democrats the power to keep checks n balances on the Mr. Trump administration.
The elections results were pretty stunning, Democrats gained 39 seats in the House to claim majority while the Republicans flipped 2 extra seats in Senate. Democrats also won 7 more governorships from swing states which will help Democrats to prevent Republican gerrymandering of those states for 2020 General elections. Interestingly democrats' biggest gains in 2018 were in districts where the Republicans were dominant in 2016. ( ).
Having gained the House in Midterm Elections by running a remarkably focused campaign democrats need to put their progressive agenda forward without being distracted by President Trump’s confrontational and provocative approach. Ms. Pelosi was quoted as saying to fellow Democrats' that ‘’Don’t chase every ball that he (Mr. Trump) throws”. Even though Democrats will try to pass some progressive legislation to highlight their priorities for the next presidential elections, but they might be shot down in Republican-controlled Senate. Despite that, in the broader interests of the American people, both parties ought to work on bipartisan cooperation in building nations aging infrastructure, Higher minimum wage, healthcare reforms, economic reforms, clearing government corruption. Despite working on a bipartisan basis democrats can also use their newly acquired majority in The House of Representative to maintain checks and balance on Trump administration. (Julie Hirschfield Davis, The New York Times)
According to editorial news, Democrats are secretly gearing up to discussions amongst the democratic led committees as to how to hold Trump’s administration accountable on various issues? One popular thought is that voters nationwide have given 7 percent more votes to democrats than republicans in order to hold Trump administration accountable. There is growing anger and resentment amongst Americans who think that the country has been run like a private money-making entity. Alongside hateful name calling and disgraceful rhetoric continues till to date against women's, Journalists and politicians. (Tom Steyer, The New York Times).
In wake of all this Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi, have been reported to successfully negotiated a deal with Democrat leaders to hold the post of Speaker of the House for 4 years, in my opinion, it is likely that the Democrats might first and foremost pursue the release of Trump's tax return. Democrats might also introduce legislation to make it mandatory for all future president and nominee to release their tax returns.
If Adam Schiff, a high-ranking Democrat becomes head of the intelligence committee, then they can request for an interview and even subpoenas senior officials in Trump’s administration to find evidence of interference and collusion in US elections, which will increase problems for the current administration. Democrats are closely watching the unfolding of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III investigation into Russian election meddling and their links and financial leverage over Mr. Trump in the presence of very credible and serious allegations.
So far special counsel has issued 100 criminal counts against 33 individuals and 3 companies. More notably Mr. Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen aka (fixer) was found guilty and charged 3 years in prison for lying to Congress and making Hush money payments to women who had claimed sexual relationship with Mr. Trump. Subsequently, Rick Gates, former campaign advisor, and Michael Flynn, former national security advisor have pleaded guilty for lying to F.B.I and their secret relationship with Russian officials. Former Trump campaign chairmen, Paul Manafort who had worked with Rick Gates and other people having links to Russian administration was charged with Tax and bank fraud, obstruction of justice. The situation is not looking good for Mr. Trump as both, his current and former aides are being investigated and subsequently charged by special counsel, Robert Mueller III connecting and leading all dots to Mr. Trump. (The New York Times, Dec 11, updated)
In the Presence of growing concerns that the Russians had tried to influence elections by trying to plant dirt on Hillary Clinton, hacking into Democratic National Committee systems during elections and might have even tried to launder money through Mr. Trump's businesses. Jerry Nadler, (D) who sits in on the powerful House Judiciary Committee, who will also be handling impeachment process if any, has called upon Republican chairmen of the committee to probe Russian meddling, hush money payment by Mr. Trump's lawyer and possible obstruction of justice issues. (Lauren Fox & Jeremy Herb, CNN).
Another high-ranking Democrat, Elijah Cummings, who is believed to become chairmen of The House Oversight and Government Reform committee has indicated to look into possible violation of Emolument clause. Furthermore, she might also be looking into Mr. Trump's handling of things that are against the precedence set by founding fathers (Lauren Fox & Jeremy Herb, CNN).
After making immigration and national security the centerpiece of his election campaign and following up on his campaign promise to make American great again and secure borders. President Donald Trump within a few days of setting His foot in the Oval office issued a series of executive orders initiating drastic changes to the U.S. immigration system. He vowed to cut dot legal immigration, build a border wall between Us –Mexico, press for extreme vetting of all applicants. He through is executive order in 2017, banned nationals of eight countries from entering the United States on the ground of security threat; cancelled the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program; ended Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for nationals of several countries; and furthermore, suspended refugee admissions for people who fleeing their war-torn countries for a better future and life security for the families.
While nobody in the right mind would deny the fact that the loopholes in immigration laws and systems can be tweaked and should prevent terrorist and criminals from illegally entering the US, however, it should not be used a tool to create hysteria for political gains as was done by Mr. Trump at the time of the Midterm election. He referred to a few hundred people, including women and children, who were fleeing their home country on foot due to violence, as a massive caravan. The so-called caravan was at the time of elections was hundreds of miles away from US border but Mr. Trump portrayed as if they would swamp the border within hours and would plague the US with terrorists. I think he created this hysteria to show his voter base how Democrats' liberal policies are responsible for illegal immigrants, in form of violent gangs such as MS13. Furthermore, how much border wall is necessary and Democrats are opposing border wall funding which was originally supposed to paid by Mexico as promised by Mr. Trump in his numerous speeches. (David Leonhardt, The Democrats, and the Caravan, The New York Times).
I think the issue of border wall should be decided on the recommendation of national security apparatus and in agreement of bipartisan legislation. However, I think there are pressing issues today like income inequality, educational debt, poverty, higher tax, prison reforms and health care that impact the life of hardworking American every day. These should be taken care of today on a priority basis.