The European Union (EU) was first set up in 1973 to assure peace between the nations after post-war drudgery and to unite Europe through political and economical means. Brexit is an abbreviation for the lexis British exit, it was devised by Peter Wilding, a Europhile who coined the term pre-Brexit in 2012 and refers to Britains exit from the EU(Wilding, 2017). There is much debate regarding what effect the referendum will have on the UK, Europe and the world due to fact that a major country has never left the EU before. This leads to speculation from the public as the government plan to securely depart from the supranational EU, whilst leaving the UK in what they claim to be a strong position. In addition, there is the fear of what the outcome will be for free movement, the single market, the possible alteration of laws formed by the EU that are applied to UK citizens and how these will affect the British economy.
The Treaty of Lisbon Act is a clause which claims that "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements."(Barnard and Peers, 2017) This provides context to how the referendum vote triggered article fifty and in turn, made it possible for UK to leave the EU. In fact, the first referendum in 1975, caused a two to one vote to remain and did so due to UK's nationwide inflation and unemployment(Clarke, Goodwin and Whiteley, 2017). Eurosceptics claim that the UK is a sovereign state that no longer needs the assistance from the EU to thrive after national adversity and has enough power to support itself, few have held this belief since Britain first joined what was then called the European Community(Stonehem, 2016). Eurosceptics believe that the world has become safe from war against the west and is solely focussed on war against the east due to terrorist groups such as ISIS and Al Qaeda. This explains their desire for the closure of free movement, as they believe this will provide added security against terrorism. Eurosceptics also believe that the UK can maintain a healthy relationship with the EU after becoming independent and that clinging onto their own nationalism will aid them in becoming sovereign. On the other hand, Europhiles favour being in the EU due to its single market as without this there would be extra tax added onto products from the EU. Additionally, the peace between nations, the opportunity to be part of a superstate with its freedom of movement provides opportunities for citizens as well as security from the EU. This is supported with Britain's strong standing in the EU as they have had some rules compromised for them due to their powerful position, this is proven with the fact that “the UK came forth in terms of the rate at which it gets the results it wants.”(Melchior, 2017).
The referendum caused a leave vote of 51.9% to 48.1% which led to protests all around the UK with citizens suggesting a new referendum to be held to this date(BBC News, 2016). This suggests there is a social divide across UK with some areas, such as Scotland, desiring to remain in the EU, this may trigger another referendum from Scotland which could lead to their departure from the UK and cause a division of Britain. There is also speculation regarding the position of Northern Ireland's borders, currently these are referred to as 'soft borders' as they are easily passable without issues, but if UK leaves the customs union there is the concern of these borders bearing border controls between Northern Ireland and Ireland. This causes much debate from Simon Coveney, who suggests that Ireland remain in the customs union and the single market; in which Theresa May is unyielding in stating her negative opinion towards. This lengthens the process of Brexit as EU declare no transition agreement can be made until the issue of Irish borders is clarified(O'Carroll, 2018).
Following the Brexit vote, it was clear to see the EU was treating Britain unfairly by asking for a large
asking for lots of money-divorce money. Why? So other countries don't leave-prevent, scare-tactics, many fear a successful Brexit may lead to other countries leaving the EU, such as France, Austria and Italy(Lyons and Darroch, 2016). Europeans change in behaviour from sadness to resentment, proven with Donald Tusk's comment “We already miss you.” as Theresa May delivered the letter for the divorce to Tusk(Independent.ie, 2017). Although Tusk admires UK, he does voice his anger regarding Brexit due to the affect the divorce will have of the peace between the EU and UK(Harrison, 2018).
Globally, there is the argument of whether Britains departure will make the country stronger or weaker. Either with a surge of unused funding proving to be economically beneficial and allowance of trade between countries that were previously prohibited or inflation leaving Britain to lose out by being solitary due to no support from EU. UK leaving the EU will also provide them with more leeway with tackling their own problems and making their own laws without the interference from the European Union. Who likes this and why? Fishermen- as they have no restrictions on fishing, citizens with high views on British nationalism. What will happen to the British and migrants in UK or other countries? what will happen to UK if they leave? Some expect it to become a superstate whereas some expect it to have a downfall.
UK is left with a two year countdown to the departure from the EU in which they must negotiate, if not, under article seven the EU has the right to withdraw them from the EU with naught.
Many Eurosceptic politicians, such as Nigel Farage, promised to cut money given to the European Union and instead provide the £350 million given to the EU to the NHS. This caused debate from masses wanting to change their vote as Farage renounced his words after the vote was finalised and this information was proven to be propaganda(Stone, 2016). In fact, the UK does not actually give the EU £350 million but instead approximately £250 million in 2016, as this figure does not take into account the rebate provided by EU as well as the money given to the UK(Hm Treasury, 2017).
many argue that the lost single market will put UK in debt. Whereas, nationalists argue that leaving the EU will provide money to repair the British economy. Europeans and British alike fear the closure of borders offering free travel to each country, with many Europeans fearing for the jobs they hold in UK. Some British want to have a peaceful world,for example Euro-enthusiasts suggest a supranational union is needed to enforce peace in the world through the intergovernmental approach of governments working together.
122,000 Europeans citizens have left UK, this increase by a third in one year proves the effect that Brexit has had on individuals who may have otherwise desired to visit UK, providing context to the impact the free borders may have on the economic decline of the country(Boffey, 2017).
one year left- if no deal is made UK gets nothing, drop in pound-unpredictable to see if it will rise, this links to the inflation on products- unforeseeable to know whether this is due to Brexit-reports eurosceptics would argue this is a generic rise in prices. Euro-enthusiasts on the other hand argue that this is due to the fall in the pound resulting in imported goods becoming costly for UK citizens.- leads to less shoppers, in turn, costing the retail sector almost £7.8 billion.(Musaddique, 2018) In comparison to many people having a change of heart and wanting to vote to remain in the EU, some have given up on their campaign for change and have a laissez faire attitude.
imported goods rather than own-country products.
Brexit “a mistake not a disaster”(Elgot, 2018) David Cameron's thoughts on Brexit -first quit and wanted to remain in EU then changed his mind.
single market means goods aren't taxed, what will happen after we leave? Uk may have to pay more to buy or sell. Drop In pound-inflation
Could slow down and disrupt production from UK
deals from UK have to first be approved by MP's then agreed by the 27 national parliaments
takes time- lots of people have to agree with each other
29th March 2019-leave date
21 month transition period is expected-in which UK could still be governed by EU laws
EU=superstate dubbed as “The United States of Europe”(Jones, 2003) the impact of UK leaving EU and how EU will attempt to make being in the union more appealing for the countries that are still inside- restriction of cherry picking so UK won't benefit from leaving the EU and the EU dominating UK by having their own conditions that suit their needs rather than UK's needs- meaning UK can't pick and choose which benefits they like. UK-first major country to leave the EU. Could open up more trading opportunities for UK which may tempt others to leave the EU too.
How this impacts the world? The UK may lose some of its strength from becoming independent, Some EU countries may resist to trade with UK due to them not being in EU anymore. Obama claimed he wouldn't trade with UK if they left EU whereas Trump seems to be happy and open to new trade deals. Theresa May's had meetings with different countries to open up opportunities for trade, this strengthens UK's relations with other countries and may obtain UK cheaper trade through China as well as the possibility of newer technology through Japan. Gives the UK more opportunities to build on their production as they are not subjected to the limitations from the EU. Mixed views from different countries as some claim this will strengthen the UK's economy whereas some claim that the UK will be powerless without EU.
What happens next? UK currently negotiating with EU. Theresa May believes things are progressing well and desires to have a Great Repeal Bill that would withdraw the European Communities Act and instead incorporate existing European Union law into the domestic law of the UK. Theresa May is building strong relations with US, China Japan, etc. to prepare the country for new trade deals and provide a broader audience for the business distributors in UK. Although May claims she is optimistic it is still unclear of what will happen as it hasn't happened yet. Currently the pound is steadily rising but it is expected to drop again upon the leave of UK. The rise in inflation will affect those struggling to make ends meet and this may result in either more homeless people on the streets or more money being used for benefits. Although businesses will benefit from a broader audience, there will still be the issues of trade between UK and EU as UK wont be in the single market and prices are still unknown. Although trade deals with other countries gives UK more opportunities it does restrict their business with EU, the cost of shipping and trading with countries that are further away may also affect the economy in turn leaving UK to be giving a higher pay out.
It is clear to say that Brexit will leave a lasting impression on UK, Europe and the world but it is difficult to know if these effects will be bad or good. Although UK may lose out from leaving the single market, the impact on the economy may be beneficial if UK is given the opportunity to advance through world trade rather than the single market within the EU. In comparison, there is likely to be a reduction in European citizens in the UK if free movement is restricted for EU citizens; this may result in fewer Europeans visiting or working in the UK and lead to a decline in the UK economy. On the other hand, this may increase the number of jobs for UK citizens that have difficulty due to the scarcity in jobs. There is less than one year left until the UK officially leaves the EU and the decisions are still being finalised so it is unpredictable to know what deals will be agreed upon in the near future. Finally, the EU will make it difficult for UK to leave to benefit themselves as well as to prevent any further nations from leaving the EU.