Introduction
Cambodia, which is also known as Kampuchea, is renowned for their natural beauty, rapid growth and most noticeably of all is their cultural heritage and the famed Angkor Wat which the nation proudly adorn their flag. Yet recently, there have been headlines regarding current situation toward democracy and legitimacy surrounding their recent general election, land grabbing crisis, corruption scandals amongst their ruling elites and most worryingly the growing influence from Beijing on this small southeast Asian nation.
We present an analytical report on the geopolitical position, power and current situation of Cambodia by reflecting on their geopolitical landscape, economy, military, ideology and politics as well as their history, international relations and their strategic goals for development. The report would also present recommendation on their strategies based on our understanding of the nation’s situation.
2. Geography
2.1 Physical aspects
2.1.1. Location
Cambodia is situated on mainland Southeast Asia, inside tropical Indomalayan ecozone, between 12.5657°N and 104.9910°E, within the GMT +7 time zone. It shares its borders Thailand to the west and north, Laos to the north and Vietnam to the east and its coast with the Gulf of Thailand. The territory covers 181,035km2of which 176,515km2is land and 443km of coastline with Sihanoukville being their only deep sea port. The deep sea port is linked to Phnom Penh, the capital city, with National Road 4 with a distance of 230 km.
2.1.2. Climate
Cambodia is under monsoon climatic influence, meaning it only has 2 distinct seasons. The dry season starts from November to April, categorised by low precipitation and hot weather with gradual rise up to 30-35℃ in April. The rainy season starts from May until October, categorised by intense monsoon rains, occasional floodings with the annual average amount between 1,000 to 1,500mm, the highest in the region.
2.1.3. Hydrology
Cambodia receives its main source of freshwater from the Mekong which originates in China and flows through Myanmar, Thailand, Laos and enters the country in its northern province of Stung Treng where it continues on for 486 km, becoming Cambodia’s longest river before entering the Mekong Delta in Vietnam and eventually the South China Sea. Thus, Cambodia is a member state of the Mekong River Commission (MRC) an inter-governmental organisation with 3 other countries with the exclusion of China and Myanmar who collectively oversee the use of this shared river. When the Mekong arrives at Phnom Penh, its course divides into the upper Mekong and the lower Mekong and further intersect with 2 other major rivers, the Bassac and the Sap, thus forming an intersection of 4 rivers which gives Phnom Penh its another local name “Krung Chaktomuk” or “the city of 4 directions”.
Every river in Cambodia normally flows southward toward the sea. However, during rainy seasons, the Sap river channel excess flood discharge from the Mekong into the Great lake or “Tonle Sap lake”, causing its current to reverse direction, flooding the Tonle Sap bassin and creating the famous floating villages along the Great lake’s shore.
2.2 Demographic aspects
2.2.1. Population
The Cambodians call their country as Kampuchea and identify themselves as the Khmer who are the ethnic majority of the country numbering up to 97.6%. Other ethnic minorities includes the Cham (1.2%), the Chinese (0.1%) and others (1.9%) as estimated in 2013.
According to Central Intelligence Agency’s world factbook, Cambodia’s current population is approximately 16,200,000 and is mainly concentrated around the Phnom Penh and southeast regions, as well as the basins of Tonle Sap lake and the Mekong river.
Their demographic pyramid exhibits progressive characteristics, suggesting a young population for the future labour market, around 300,000 respectively. However, the country’s poverty analysis by the Asian Development Bank suggests ageing population, resulting in immense impacts on the healthcare sector and pension system in 2 decades.
2.2.2. Migration
Majority of the young labour force migrate internally and externally due to employment incentives. There is no national minimum wages so low income earners, especially those from the rural areas migrate to work outside Cambodia. According to a report from International Labour Organization, Thailand is their first destination with labour inflow into the industries of fishery, construction, agriculture and domestic services. Other destinations include South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore and the demand is reported to be on the rise due to ageing population in those countries, requiring labour from Cambodia for care services.
3. Power
According to Global Fire Power, Cambodia ranks 120 out 136 in military power and it appears to have gone down. The country has $192million worth of defense budget, 8,000,000 available manpower of which 195,000 are military personnels. Cambodia is ranked 73rd out of 113 countries for their total naval asset and 114th out of 136 countries for their total aircraft asset (GFP, 2018).
4. History
The indigenous Khmer people inhabited the area long before the emergence of their first city state in recorded history called the Nokor Phnom or Funan in 65 A.D. Their main coastal trade port “O’Keo” is believed to located in Oc Eo, in modern Vietnam and the Khmer had another separate capital city “Angkor Borei”, further inland, located in modern Cambodia.
From 802 A.D., Cambodia had been conquering and occupying most of mainland southeast Asia and called their country “The Khmer Empire”. During this period, many of the nation’s architectural marvels were constructed, including the famous Angkor Wat temple. Still, the Khmer built their capital city “Angkor” further inland, in the Tonle Sap basins and relied on trade routes with their coastal occupied cities. This trend of having a separate trading city from a capital city has been observed to be a repeated pattern throughout Cambodia’s history. In fact, the modern day capital city Phnom Penh is located further inland while the nation welcome international trades at Sihanoukville on the south coast. (Jessup H.I., 2004)
The Khmer Empire, which started from 9th to 14th century, serves as the sources of patriotism and pride for the Cambodians as the image of Angkor Wat temple has been used as a national symbol on their flags since 1863 until today, even during the genocidal regime of Khmer Rouge. Thus, it is obvious that the archeological sites of Angkor, now located in modern day Siem Reap province, continues to serve the population as a source of national pride and any impacts on this ancient city will trigger internal social and political reactions. In fact in 2003, a riot broke out in the heart of Phnom Penh and the Thai Embassy was burnt by the angry crowd following a comment from a Thai actress claiming that Angkor belongs to Thailand, a comment which she later denied. (Aglionby, J., 2003)
However, the period that has shaped modern Cambodia begins from from the declaration of independence from the French on november 09 1953 by King Norodom Sihanouk. The king gained immense popularity for that fact that he restored Cambodia’s independence without shedding blood and his development projects that had very quickly lifted the impoverished Cambodia to one of the strongest economic hub in the region. Many Cambodians nowadays still regards this period between 1965-1970 as their modern golden age. (Vachoun, M., 2013)
King Norodom Sihanouk however, was overthrown by a revolution against capitalism and monarchy led by an allegedly American-backed general Mr. Lon Nol in 1970. The regime is recorded to be an ineffective one with over reliance on the US’s aid, widespread corruption and debt accumulation which the US surprisingly lended to his rather illegitimate government. Currently, the debt from that era, which was originally $278million now amounts to approximately $600million (Falby, P., 2002).
Yet in 1973, the US secretly bombed Cambodia countryside indiscriminately with over 500,000 tonnes of explosives. Yet, now the US is demanding the debt repayment and Cambodia is currently questioning the US’s role in the alleged backing of the coup and the undeniable support it provided to the Lon Nol’s Government and most importantly, the devastation caused by the US’s secret bombing (Murdoch, L., 2017).
On April 1975, the Lon Nol’s Government was overtaken by the Khmer Rouge, a Cambodian communist insurgent group whose initial promise was to revenge the illegitimate regime and bring Cambodia back its monarchy. Yet, shortly after its victory, the Khmer Rouge leader “Pol Pot” slaughtered the most of the royal family and proceeded with the forced evacuation of urban dwellers in Phnom Penh and other major cities and committed the almost 4 year long regime of genocide and forced labour on his own people. This resulted in an estimated of 2 million loss of lives and millions of people traumatised, separated from families and other long lasting social impacts which to a certain extent have been used for political purposes in Cambodia’s very recent political scape (Murray, B., 2013).
Cambodia just held its general election on 29th July 2018, and the result is deemed as “the death of democracy” in several medias. The ruling party “CPP”, who wins this election by 82%, is believed to strongly influence the Supreme Court’s decision to dissolve the CNRP, the only visible opposition party just before the election. The CPP is also reported to have been associated in the threatenings and assassination of many of Cambodia’s political critics and human right activists over the recent decades and its elites are linked to corruption, land grabbing crisis as accused by organisations such as Global Witness in 2016. The CPP itself is believed to grow closer to Beijing’s influence through many of the financial aids from whom the party receives (Koloff, S., 2018).
5. International Relations
ASEAN – Cambodia has neutral and friendly relationship with other ASEAN members.
Japan – Cambodia shares strong and historical diplomatic tie with Japan. Asides from trade, Japan is Cambodia’s biggest aid donor and in 2016 pledged another $26million to the restoration project of Angkor archeological site (Sisovann, P., & VOA Khmer, 2016).
United States of America – The US is home to million of Cambodians who escaped the Khmer Rouge 3 decades ago. Yet, due to historical frictions and the recent deportation of Cambodian past criminals under Trump’s administration, the demand of debt repayment, the relationship is getting weaker. Recently along with the EU, the US threatens sanction in reaction to the dissolution of CNRP party this year and the fact that Cambodia-China alliance grows stronger only serve to further weaken the diplomatic relations with the US and the West in general.
Australia – Australia is home to many of Cambodia’s political refugees who escaped threats and assassination and criticise the recent democracy issue in Cambodia. The country is amongst the biggest development aid contributor with $83.6milion poured into Cambodia for 2018-2019 (Australian Government, 2018).But the Australian Government signed $55million refugee resettlement deal with Cambodia and many of Cambodia’s corrupt elites are exposed to run their businesses, some of which are illegal, in Australia safely for decades (Al Jazeera, 2018).
China – Cambodia has a close historical diplomatic alliance with China but Chinese presence is getting stronger due to immense investment and financial aids from the One Belt One Road project where China acknowledges the advantages Cambodia’s strategic location and position in the ASEAN community. The Cambodian Government in turn used its ASEAN membership to block ASEAN’s statement against China in the case of South China Sea, twice. This action has deteriorate Cambodia’s relations with its neighbours and its ASEAN alliances but apparently strengthened that with China (Mogato, M., 2016).
However there are growing concerns about Chinese negative influences over Sihanoukville, Cambodia’s only deep water port, as Chinese investments have resulted in booms of casinos and hotels, undermining the locals’ quality of life and most importantly the widespread practice of alleged money laundry by the Chinese (Ellis-Peterson, H., 2018).
6. Strategic Goals
Currently Cambodia is intensively engaging with China in integrating the country into the One Belt One Road project. Cambodia has already received $240million worth of development grant from China and signed 13 agreements while various construction projects and 99 year land concession schemes are already in progress (Chheang, V., 2017).
7. Recommendation
Reflecting on the current situations of deteriorating democracy, violation of human rights and growing concerns of China’s influence in Cambodia, we would like to suggest some strategies to deliver a more sustainable development progress to the country:
Given geographical limits in areas and resources, Cambodia should refrain from reliance on resource exploitation for development and instead focus on become the intellectual hub of the region by improving the quality of their education system and services.
Devise effective plans for paying off foreign debts.
Focus on growth in tertiary sector rather than manufacturing sectors with the aim to become independent of aid and influence from China as well as other superpowers.
Carry diplomatic strategies with precautions so not to upset any superpowers so that Cambodia would not become a stage for the West and the East houses to challenge each other’s influence.
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